Which NHL teams look like 2025 Stanley Cup contenders right now?
A little more than a year ago, I noticed an interesting statistical pattern when researching for an article. From 2019 to 2023, four of the five Stanley Cup champions finished the regular season before their run in the top 10 in both 5v5 expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) and 5v5 expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60). The only exception was the 2021-22 Colorado Avalanche, who were only 12th in 5v5 xGF/60 but had the shooting talent to make up for it.
I then explored that pattern for the 2023-24 season twice: once at this time last year, and once right before the playoffs. As it turns out, there’s something to this pattern. Of the five teams who fit that threshold last season (the Carolina Hurricanes, Dallas Stars, Edmonton Oilers, Florida Panthers and Los Angeles Kings), three made the Conference Finals and two faced off for the Stanley Cup, while the two that didn’t either lost to another one of those five teams (the Kings) or were goalied in their series (the Hurricanes).
So since this was so successful last season, I thought I’d see how long I can ride this hot hand and look into it again this season. If you don’t see a team on here that you expected to, it doesn’t mean they’re bad in both categories, they just need some improvement in one.
Below I’ll talk about the teams that meet this pattern and currently find themselves in the top 10 in both stats or need just a little bit of improvement in one.
On the Cusp
Only one team found themselves in the top 10 in 5v5 xGF/60 and in the range of 11th to 15th in 5v5 xGA/60, and it’s the NHL’s newest addition, Utah Hockey Club. They’ve been one of the better stories in the league this season, and have hung around in the playoff race up to this point in the season. The good news about Utah only being mediocre defensively is that there is a very visible path to them improving, and that’s when they get healthier. With both Sean Durzi and John Marino out until at least the end of February, they really should be worse defensively than they are, so if they can stick around in the playoff race just a little bit longer or add at the trade deadline, they’ll certainly improve their standing here once those two defensemen return.
No other team finished top 10 in 5v5 xGA/60 and 11th to 15th in 5v5 xGF/60.
Carolina Hurricanes
5v5 xGF/60: 3.05 (1st)
5v5 xGA/60: 2.33 (t-9th)
You probably shouldn’t be surprised to see the Hurricanes on here. They made both editions of last year’s lists and have consistently been one of the best teams at driving play and creating/preventing chances since Rod Brind’Amour became head coach. Their issue has always been that they just can’t convert on those chances that they create, especially in the playoffs, and that’s why they were the only team on last year’s list heading into the playoffs to not be eliminated by another team on that list.
Has that changed this season? The Canes have certainly switched up the way they generate their offensive chances this season, and that’s seen positive results thus far, as they’re tied for sixth in 5v5 goals for per 60 minutes (GF/60) with 2.72, but there’s still a significant margin between that and their expected goals. On top of that, they are worse defensively this season, especially when Brent Burns is on the ice, with his -2.7 defensive goals above replacement being the worst among Carolina defensemen. At the end of the day, it all depends on how they perform in the playoffs, so we’ll see if they can finally do the job offensively in the spring.
Edmonton Oilers
5v5 xGF/60: 2.66 (7th)
5v5 xGA/60: 2.33 (t-9th)
The Oilers made last year’s edition of the list both times, and it very nearly paid off with their run to the Stanley Cup Final. The fact that they were one of the best teams in the league at both ends of the ice, along with boasting the talents of Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Evan Bouchard, Zach Hyman and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, meant it was no surprise that Edmonton fell just one win short of a championship.
However, the Oilers have seen a slight step back from last year. They’re about the same standing in the league in terms of their 5v5 xGA/60 (tied for eighth last year vs. tied for ninth this year), but they’ve generated chances at a much lower rate (first last year vs. seventh this year). A big reason for that was the changes they made in the offseason, which sacrificed a lot of their foot speed and made them an older team as a result. That puts a lot of their offensive creation on the hands of their stars, and while they’re more than capable of it, they’ll need some help if they want to be a Cup contender.
Los Angeles Kings
5v5 xGF/60: 2.63 (8th)
5v5 xGA/60: 2.04 (1st)
Like the two teams we’ve talked about so far, the Kings were also on both editions of last year’s lists, but they came with a massive red flag. Not only did they lack the star power to finish on their chances, which has caused them problems in the playoffs against the Oilers’ talent for the past three years, but their numbers took quite a big step back in the second half of the regular season, so by the time the playoffs came, their underlying numbers were probably overestimating them a bit.
With a new head coach and a few changes to the roster, the Kings are back to being a strong play-driving team, and are currently the best team at preventing chances. But, those offensive concerns still remain, especially when their current 2.78 GF/60 minutes is a slight overperformance of the chances they’re actually creating. Considering that they’ve also seen slow starts from some of their players that they expect production from, particularly Kevin Fiala and Quinton Byfield, it’s easy to see how this is setting the stage for another playoff disappointment.
The last time the Kings won the Cup, they were lacking that scoring touch and made a move to land Marian Gaborik, so perhaps they need to do something like that to help their chances.
New Jersey Devils
5v5 xGF/60: 2.78 (3rd)
5v5 xGA/60: 2.2 (4th)
Right now, the Devils are the most well-rounded hockey team in the league. They’re the only team that ranks in the top five in both creating and preventing expected goals, even though they don’t rank first in either stat. This was also the case in 2022-23 when they made the playoffs, but they saw their defensive game take a massive step back in 2023-24, which did not help their goaltending problems that year.
However, the Devils learned from their mistakes and plugged a lot of the holes from last season. They’ve gotten contributions from depth acquisitions like Stefan Noesen and Paul Cotter. They brought in Brett Pesce, Brenden Dillion and Jonathan Kovacevic to bring some more defensive sturdiness to their blueline around Dougie Hamilton, Jonas Siegenthaler and Luke Hughes. And most notably, they overhauled their goaltending with Jake Allen at the 2024 trade deadline and Jacob Markstrom in the offseason. They’re certainly not perfect, but their weaknesses are still much better than other teams’ weaknesses, especially when it still feels like they can get more production from Timo Meier and Nico Hischier (who has just seven points in his last 14 games).
All stats courtesy of Natural Stat Trick, except for GAR numbers, which come from Evolving Hockey.
_____
POST SPONSORED BY bet365
_____