Which Round 2 loser team has the most worrisome outlook for 2025-26?
Last week, we bid four more teams farewell as Round 2 of the Stanley Cup playoffs wrapped up.
Each of the clubs eliminated – the Toronto Maple Leafs, Vegas Golden Knights, Washington Capitals and Winnipeg Jets – enjoyed a strong season. But which of the Round 2 loser teams are you most worried about for 2025-26?
MATT LARKIN: It’s the Washington Capitals for me. Everything about their tremendous season screams regression to me. I count eight or nine players on the 2024-25 team who had career years. Can we depend on all of Pierre-Luc Dubois, Jakob Chychrun, Dylan Strome and even Logan Thompson to be this good again? I do think the Caps are going to be OK long-term, as they have an impressive prospect crop, led by Ryan Leonard, Cole Hutson and Andrew Cristall. But I see them taking a step backward from their 111-point season, probably by 10-15 points, in 2025-26.
SCOTT MAXWELL: While the Capitals are probably the most likely to take any sort of a step back, I think the Toronto Maple Leafs have the potential to take the biggest step back out of any of the four teams. While the Capitals overperformed as a Presidents’ Trophy contender, they still played like a playoff team. The Leafs, not so much. They were one of five teams to finish the regular season with a sub-50% 5v5 expected goal share (the other four being the Wildcard teams), and that got even worse in the playoffs with a 43.75% share, the second-worst among playoff teams. The combination of elite goaltending, getting the bounces in one-goal games, and the play of the Core Four players elevated an otherwise flawed team with no depth, so regression should be expected for them as well, especially if Mitch Marner walks. How Brad Treliving opts to replace Marner will be the key to whether the Maple Leafs take a massive step back or not, but it wouldn’t surprise me if the result is giving players like Sam Bennett a lot more money than they probably need. Either the Leafs find a way through all of this to maintain their consistently competitive play, or we may potentially be looking at a repeat of the infamous 2013 offseason.
PAUL PIDUTTI: All four of these franchises exited Round 2 feeling varying degrees of disappointment. Yet, it’s eye-opening how there are legitimate concerns about each making a repeat run in 2026. I was extremely high on the Winnipeg Jets‘ hopes this year as the stars seemed to align for a dream season all the way back to October. While they have a lot to be proud of, it’s difficult to see any of Connor Hellebuyck (32 years old), Mark Scheifele (32), Josh Morrissey (30) or Kyle Connor (28) playing at an even higher level than they just did at their respective ages. Even if Nikolaj Ehlers returns and some savvy reinforcements are added, this group squeaked out a Round 1 win in the dying seconds and was inconsistent throughout the playoff run. I hope I’m wrong as Winnipeg’s resurgence — both in the standings and at the box office — was a feel-good story all year. But it will take another Herculean effort and some good fortune to repeat a thrilling 2024-25.
STEVEN ELLIS: I’m also going with the Washington Capitals. This felt like a year where the team needed to go all-out, and they had a prospect pool they could have dipped into to make it happen. It was a flawed team, yet I felt like I was on an island when I was screaming for them to do something more at the deadline. There’s something to be said about keeping your lineup intact, but they could have afforded to do more than snag Anthony Beauvillier. This always felt like the Last Dance for this group under Alex Ovechkin’s control, and then they completely floundered the second round away. They needed someone to help pick up the pace offensively, knowing Ovechkin was bound to slow down after breaking the record. It should have been obvious to everyone – but they stood pat, and look what happened. I don’t see them getting better from here.
ANTHONY DI MARCO: The Winnipeg Jets are my pick, because unless Connor Hellebuyck is the Vezina/Har Trophy guy we have seen in the regular season, they are far from the Presidents’ Trophy winner they were this season. Without elite level goaltending, the Jets are simply just an above-average team – it’s just reality. In arguably the toughest division in the NHL and with the distinct possibly that it may get tougher if the Minnesota Wild execute their plans this summer, there is a good chance the Jets could be left behind. They need help down the middle and have arguably the most conservative GM in hockey; can we really expect anything other than a regression next season?
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