Who are the most unpredictable NHL teams ahead of the 2023-24 season?
Once the NHL Draft is over and the big-name free agents find their new homes, the bulk of offseason hockey coverage shifts to predicting the movers and shakers of the upcoming season. At Daily Faceoff, we have worked hard to prepare our readers (and ourselves) for the 2023-24 campaign with awards predictions, salary-cap analysis, and exhaustive previews for all 32 NHL teams. That does not make us clairvoyant, and though some squads seem sure things to either excel or fall flat, others confound and divide the hockey community. From a Pittsburgh Penguins outfit chasing a last hurrah to a Calgary Flames team trying to keep its focus on the ice, here are the four most volatile clubs as the new season draws near.
An Over-the-Hill Gang in Pittsburgh
After Kyle Dubas’s messy exit from Toronto, he took the reins of an aging and expensive Pittsburgh Penguins roster that has relied almost exclusively on the production of Stanley Cup-winning quartet Sidney Crosby, Jake Guentzel, Kris Letang and Evgeni Malkin in recent seasons. Guentzel is out of contract runway, and his Hall-of-Fame-bound teammates are all at least 36, but that did not stop Dubas from making major offseason acquisitions led by reigning Norris Trophy winner Erik Karlsson.
What’s to like?
Karlsson, acquired in a three-team trade with the San Jose Sharks and Montreal Canadiens, was the big fish in an offseason light on free-agent stars, and Dubas knows his new team will be in “win now” territory for as long as they have Crosby, Malkin, and Letang. Dubas reinforced coach Mike Sullivan’s lineup as such. The executive took advantage of one of Vegas’s signature cap dumps to acquire winger Reilly Smith, snapped up Devils UFA Ryan Graves to anchor Karlsson on defense, and bolstered Pittsburgh’s nonexistent depth with veteran penalty killers Lars Eller and Noel Accari. Add in backup goalie Alex Nedeljkovic, and the Penguins checked off every item on their offseason wish list.
What’s the issue?
The Penguins improved on paper, but their unsustainably brittle old guard could hit a wall at any moment. The same goes for Eller, 34, Karlsson, 33, and Smith, 32. Though Crosby, Malkin, and Karlsson each managed an 82-game season in 2022-23, the trio combined to miss 87 contests a year earlier. Letang missed 18 games just last season, and there is reason to worry that Pittsburgh’s best players cannot hold up for long enough to carry them to the playoffs. If they do, can their bodies last in that physical environment?
Another concern is whether Tristan Jarry is the No.1 goalie Dubas paid for; he will make nearly $27 million over the next five seasons but has yet to string together consecutive successful campaigns in the NHL.
Verdict: Crosby plus Malkin plus Letang plus Karlsson would have equaled championship at one time, but are there enough healthy games between the four to last in a competitive Metropolitan Division?
Points ceiling: 103; Points floor: 88
Back to the playoffs, or more of the Blues in St. Louis?
The St. Louis Blues did not make sweeping changes to the 2022-23 roster that finished with the worst points percentage of Doug Armstrog’s time in the Gateway City, but that roster was relatively unchanged from their 109-point 2021-22 vintage. Sure, Armstrong jettisoned Ryan O’Reilly, Vladimir Tarasenko, and Ivan Barbashev in February, but with veterans like Justin Faulk and Brayden Schenn signed long-term, he and coach Craig Berube think this team has more juice than it showed last season.
What’s to like?
Robert Thomas (18G, 65P) and Jordan Kyrou (37G, 73P) should improve without having to play from behind so often, while linemate Pavel Buchnevich has quietly been the team’s best player since arriving via trade in July of 2021; he has 56 goals and 143 points in 136 games for St. Louis. The revamped leadership group of Schenn, Faulk, Thomas, and Colton Parayko will try to limit the dips in concentration that led to the league’s sixth-worst scoring defense last season. From Brandon Saad to Torey Krug, the Blues have plenty of big names under contract; so many underachieved last season that career averages would be enough to return to contention in a weak Central Division.
What’s the issue?
Kevin Hayes, Jakub Vrana, and Kasperi Kapenen could be middle-six bargains this season, but Armstrong has signed too many ironclad contracts to improve his blueline. A top four of Krug, Faulk, Parayko, and Nick Leddy does little to inspire confidence in light of their awful 2022-23, but the former three make $6.5 million AAV, Leddy collects another $4 million, and each has a no-trade clause. Parayko and Faulk are candidates to bounce back, but their lefthanded teammate cannot eat minutes on a playoff team. It doesn’t help that goaltender Jordan Binnington, another $6-million man with trade protection, is coming off a career-worst season (3.31 GAA, .894 SV%).
Verdict: St. Louis is deep enough to recover some ground in a comparatively weak Western Conference, but with nothing different on the back end, they could get carved once again.
Points ceiling: 97; Points floor: 83
Can the Flames heat up with Sutter gone?
Former Calgary GM Brad Treliving tried to save the Flames’ 2022 offseason from the embarrassment of losing Johnny Gaudreau and Matthew Tkachuk. Tkachuk netted slick passer Jonathan Huberdeau and shutdown D-man MacKenzie Weegar in a trade with Florida, and after the late-offseason addition of Nazem Kadri, it seemed the Flames would not miss a beat in the short term; the three veterans easily equaled the value of Gaudreau and Tkachuk in 2021-22. Not so.
Huberdeau had an NHL-record 60-point dropoff, Kadri regressed to career averages, and the Flames narrowly missed the postseason just a year after claiming the Pacific Division crown. League-worst luck did not help: the team buried an NHL-low 8.8% of its shots as Darryl Sutter’s notoriously grating personality led to a hostile locker room environment. After the team legend’s ignominious exit, the refreshed Flames will get back on their feet in 2023-24. Right?
What’s to like?
The Flames have loads of defensive talent. Stay-at-home blueliners Weegar (58.3%) and Chris Tanev (61.2%) controlled expected goals at an elite rate at 5-on-5, while Noah Hanifin (7G, 38P) and Rasmus Andersson (11G, 49P) provided relevant offense from the back-end. Two-way contributions from perennial Selke contenders Mikael Backlund and Elias Lindholm, along with middle-six grinders like Blake Coleman and Andrew Mangiapane, will ensure Calgary remains a tough out with rookie head coach Ryan Huska behind the bench.
What’s the issue?
Scoring. Mangiapane will be better than he was in 2022-23 when he finished more than 5 points under his career shooting percentage and dropped from 35 goals to 17. He probably belongs somewhere in the middle. Huberdeau, a pass-first winger who led the NHL with 85 assists two seasons ago, will also recover; the Flames took the second-most shots in the NHL last season, and his floor is 80 points if they finish chances at an average rate. Still, Calgary has precious few snipers now that Tyler Toffoli is a Devil. Is Yegor Sharangovich ready to replace him as Calgary’s top triggerman? Lindholm’s goal production is a roller coaster, and though Kadri could step up after cashing in 11 times on the power play, the 32-year-old was so poor at even strength that Calgary brass might be wondering if he’s still a top-six center.
Morale is another issue, and though Sutter’s departure was enough for Backlund to buy in for another season as a Flame, he’s out of contract. So are Lindholm and Hanifin. Calgary has no cap room, and with the latter two due for big raises, something has to give. Veterans are looking over their shoulders as a critical season looms.
Verdict: There are points up for grabs in the Pacific Division, but the defensively stout Flames need to get their house (and their offense) to claim them.
Points ceiling: 105; Points Floor: 88
The Ottawa Senators: the Atlantic Division’s wild card
With the Tampa Bay Lighting slowly drifting out of contention after years of dominance and the Boston Bruins decimated by a taxing offseason, the Atlantic Division is wide open, and only the Toronto Maple Leafs seem guaranteed a playoff berth. The ‘Yzerplan’ has gotten Detroit out of the basement, but only as far as the doldrums. Most fans are ready to see the Buffalo Sabres end their historic playoff drought, but the Ottawa Senators are sneakily better on paper. Will that translate on the ice?
What’s to like?
The Senators have everything an up-and-coming contender could ever want. There are homegrown, play-driving superstars in captain Brady Tkachuk and top center Tim Stutzle, and top-six contributors from the free agent market (Claude Giroux, Vladimir Tarasenko) and within the organization (Josh Norris, Drake Batherson). Dynamic scorers (Thomas Chabot, Jakob Chychrun) and stay-at-home bangers (the versatile Jake Sanderson, plus Artem Zub) are coming together nicely on the blueline. If Joonas Korpisalo is worth his five-year contract between the pipes, are there any holes on this roster?
What’s the issue?
GM Pierre Dorion is making this up as he goes along. He spent steeply for Chychrun, who plays on the same side as Sanderson and Chiabot, and offers lucrative extensions at the first sign of promise. Sometimes it works: Batherson is a power-play stud who will make less than $5 million AAV until he’s 29, and Tkachuk’s 8-year, $57.5 million pact is already one of the best values in the league. Other times, the numbers are bizarre: Dorion extended Mathieu Joseph for middle-six money after an 11-game audition and paid Norris nearly $8 million per-year 125 games into his pro career. The sniper has played eight times since.
Dorion’s desperation to acquire and keep high-end talent at any cost took a bizarre turn this offseason; big-ticket trade acquisition Alex DeBrincat forced his way out of Ottawa after only a season, and replacing the diminutive winger with Tarasenko left the Sens too cash-strapped to offer 20-goal rookie Shane Pinto a contract. Did they forget about him?
Verdict: The Senators could pour in goals en route to a playoff finish if everything goes right, but is this all too much, too soon? Buffalo and Detroit have certainly gone about their rebuilds with more patience.
Points ceiling: 101; Points floor: 90
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