Who stays and who goes if the Ottawa Senators make a major roster shakeup?

Credit: Marc DesRosiers-USA TODAY Sports

We’re seven years removed from former Ottawa Senators GM Pierre Dorion pulling the trigger on acquiring Matt Duchene from the Colorado Avalanche. A mere six months before that, the Senators were one goal away from the Stanley Cup Final. The deal was thought to bring in an “over the top” addition to a Senators squad on the cusp of breaking through.

An ownership change, a front office overhaul and four head coaches later, the overturn of Ottawa’s roster has been monumental. Unfortunately, it has not led to much tangible improvement in the wins column.

Even before the arrival of new president of hockey operations and GM Steve Staios, the Senators had seemingly done everything the “right way” in terms of a traditional rebuild. They sold off their highest-priced assets, cleared up the salary cap and positioned themselves to draft near the top of the selection board in multiple consecutive years. Between 2018 and 2021, the Senators selected seven times in the first round, including four times in the top 10.

We know the names that, in theory, stand out to make Ottawa look like a talented, young team waiting to pop; Thomas Chabot, Jake Sanderson, Tim Stutzle and Brady Tkachuk, to name a few. On paper it is nice and all, but they don’t hang banners up in the rafters for it. The losing year over year led to a major change behind the bench and in the front office last season, with new eyes overseeing the next stage of the Senators’ organizational progression.

This year was supposed to be different. It was Staios’ first full season at the helm and head coach Travis Green’s first kick at the can running the bench. But, once again, it has been groundhog day in Canada’s capital.

But why? Why has this year again led to a floundering Senators team heading into the ever so important American Thanksgiving checkpoint in the season?

The easy answer, as it so often is, is goaltending. Linus Ullmark, acquired from the Boston Bruins over the summer, was supposed to shore up the yearly question mark between the pipes. He signed a three-year extension ($8.25 million AAV) locked and loaded with a full no-movement clause. Ullmark has not come as advertised, struggling to provide Ottawa with anything close to what they expected. Back-up Anton Forsberg has not been much better; both are outside the top 30 goaltenders who have played at least five games in goals saved above expected per 60, per moneypuck.com.

In a change of pace from years past, Ottawa’s team defense has been among the league’s best, Although it was an underwhelming return for Jakob Chychrun considering what Dorion gave up to get him, Nick Jensen has provided exactly what the Senators defense – and Chabot particularly as his partner – has been missing for years: a steadying, low-event veteran in the top four. Per moneypuck.com, the Senators rank fifth in expected goals against, a massive improvement from year’s past.

The truly shocking trend this season has been the anemic offense. Ottawa has gotten what they need from Stuztle and Tkachuk with 28 and 25 points, respectively. Claude Giroux and Josh Norris, while inconsistent at times, have done their part with 17 and 15 points, respectively. Adam Gaudette has been a pleasant surprise with 11 goals, which has elevated him to the top line. But after those five, contributions from the team’s forwards have been scarce.

A full season with Ridly Greig and Shane Pinto from the hop was supposed to give Ottawa significant depth (especially down the middle); both have struggled with just seven and three points, respectively. David Perron and Michael Amadio were supposed to give the team depth scoring and veteran leadership; Amadio has just two goals in 22 games, while Perron has only played nine games, having missed time due to a major health crisis with his newborn daughter.

Speaking with some executives from other teams, the lack of role players in the Senators’ forward lineup is a contributing factor. All the individual names are nice, but when key players like Greig and Pinto are not producing and not plugging specific holes, it can lead to a consistent blender for the lines. The veteran leadership to inspire winning – one of the reasons one would assume Stanley Cup champion Nick Cousins was brought in – has not resulted in any tangible mindset resilience improvement from years past.

Beyond the tangible struggles, one executive suggested perhaps a psychological problem for the Senators’ core players. Multiple years with no playoffs, an empty building outside the city, underperforming players on heavy contracts, mediocre to bad trades, a cast of non-championship coaches, players who have wanted out, the ownership/management overhaul – are all things that have been attached to this core group of players.

After years of adversity (both on and off the ice), it can take a beating on a group of players. Off ice changes and different hands on the wheel can help, but it’s the players who ultimately make the difference on the ice. In the Senators’ case, aside from the building in the middle of nowhere, the only lasting common denominator is the core group of players the prior regime committed to.

As DFO’s Frank Seravalli reported earlier this week, Norris is a name the Senators are exploring trade avenues with. Norris is having a good season, but the injury history and heavy contract ($7.95 million AAV locked in until 2030) have more than one team hesitant to take a flyer on him. Even if the Senators were to find a taker for Norris, I doubt the return will be anything to write home about given the aforementioned reasons. As Seravalli mentioned, it may take a deeper change to the Senators’ core to really shake things up and cause a jolt to the team.

I doubt Staios is at a point where names like Sanderson, Stutzle and Tkachuk are on the table. Giroux is a veteran with an NMC and likely no intention of moving, and even if he did, what kind of return are we to expect? That leaves two names that pop out as trade options: Greig and Pinto.

To this point, more than one person has echoed to me that Staios has no intention of moving either player. I get the thinking by Staios, as both are young centers who have barely scratched the surface who can, theoretically, be your No. 2 and 3 centers for a long time. But you have to give to get in this league, and those two could fetch solid returns via trade and shake things up among the forward group.

Names like Drake Batherson and Chabot are also options Staios could explore trade avenues with to shuffle things up. Both are long-standing Senators and have been here for much of the losing; moving on from either would certainly constitute a major change.

It isn’t an easy road for Staios and his staff, but something is going to have to give eventually. Additions have been made to insulate the core group – both on and off the ice. Eventually the common denominator will need to be addressed, even if it is taking aim at the core group of guys. There must certainly be hesitation on the part of the Senators front office as to not make the wrong move and rile up an already sensitive fanbase, but if the definition of insanity is trying the same thing over and over and expecting a different result, Staios will have to make a major change rather than keep staring it in the face.

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Who stays and who goes if the Ottawa Senators make a major roster shakeup?

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