Who will be the finalists for the Jack Adams? NHL executives weigh-in
The Jack Adams trophy is, by definition, supposed to be awarded to the league’s best head coach.
Oftentimes, mind you, it is awarded to the biggest overachieving bench boss. No better example of this is Jon Cooper, who has (only!) two nominations as a Jack Adams finalist; he has never won the award.
More so than ever before, the 2024-25 campaign has presented a long list of candidates for serious Jack Adams consideration. Not only for overachieving coaches, but also for ones who have unequivocally done a remarkable job this season in terms of pure team success. I myself have had a hard time nailing down a final three (let alone a favorite) for the best coach this season; as a result, I decided to ask the opinion of team executives across the league.
Speaking with five different team executives, I asked for their respective top three candidates for coach of the year. Of the five I spoke with, four of them gave the same no.1 answer atop their respective list: Washington Capitals head coach Spencer Carbery.
Carbery has led his group to their best season in years in his second season behind the Capitals’ bench. Already having amassed 100 points as of Friday morning, the Capitals sit atop the NHL standings (ahead of the Winnipeg Jets based on points percentage) and are the first team in the NHL to have already clinched a playoff spot. Carbery has helped coach the Capitals into the league’s best offensive team, averaging 3.62 goals per game (best in the NHL) and rank fifth in expected goals per 60, per moneypuck.com.
The breakout season from Dylan Strome, the revitalization of Pierre-Luc Dubois, and the return to goal-scoring prominence of Alex Ovechkin – all while bearing down on Wayne Gretzky’s record for all-time goals – have come under Carbery. As one assistant GM said, “Carbery should easily win,” while another eastern conference executive listed “Spencer Carbery” three times when asked for his trio of finalists.
Washington’s team success and multiple players having career years have caught the eyeballs from across the league, and it seems like he, in the eyes of many, is a shoo-in as a favorite for coach of the year. While the Capitals have certainly “overachieved” with their President’s trophy caliber season – I’d venture to guess most pundits had them in the wildcard picture entering the year, like myself – Carbery has also coached his group to a tangibly high level. This may be the first year where the league’s best bench boss is not just the biggest surprise but has also done the best pure coaching job.
But while Carbery is the favorite, who are some of the other names who got love from the aforementioned five executives?
Columbus Blue Jackets head coach Dean Evason came in second during my discussions, with four of the five executives I spoke with giving him second or third-place votes. Speculatively speaking, Evason’s recognition is more likely one in line with the recent narrative of the award: a coach who has overseen the most surprising team.
While the Blue Jackets have begun to fall back from the playoff race, their ability to keep pace all season (especially following the tragic passing of Johnny Gaudreau) has made them one of the most feel-good stories in the NHL. In terms of tangible results and underlying process, the Jackets have been more of a below-average team; they rank 25th in expected goals percentage per money puck. If the Jackets miss out on the playoffs, it may hurt Evason’s chances to be a finalist, but it hasn’t changed him getting attention to this point.
As for the third name, four of the five executives named Ryan Huska of the Calgary Flames. As one executive said, “Nobody is talking about Huska.”
Much like Evason, Huska has overseen an overachieving Flames group in the thick of a playoff race. The Flames’ underlying process has not been great—they share an identical xG percentage as the Blue Jackets, per money puck—and they have relied heavily on low-scoring games, aided by rookie goaltender (and Calder trophy candidate) Dustin Wolf.
Just on the outside looking in, Winnipeg Jets head coach Scott Arniel was given votes by two executives. Regarding raw results, a case must be made that Arniel should be ranked second on this list. Tied with the Capitals with 100 points, the Jets have enjoyed a remarkable season under Arniel’s first full season as head coach. A large part of the Jets’ success can be attributed to the Hart trophy-level season from goaltender Connor Hellebuyck. But the underlying process has been solid for the Arniel-coached group. The Jets are a top-10 defensive team in the NHL, per money puck’s xG against per 60 stat – a trend that has carried over from Arniel’s predecessor, Rick Bowness.
Overall, the three candidates for coach of the year per five executives are Carbery, Evason and Huska, with Arniel being just on the outside looking in.
Who else could be in the mix?
The only other name that was mentioned by one of the executives is Jim Montgomery of the St. Louis Blues. After winning four games in a row and seven of their last 10, the Blues have moved themselves into the second wildcard position in the Western Conference. After making a coaching change early this season following a lackluster start, Montgomery’s quick hiring after his dismissal from the Boston Bruins has turned the Blues’ fortunes around this season. Should the Blues lock down a playoff position, Montgomery could get serious consideration.
One name that was not mentioned is Travis Green of the Ottawa Senators, which was surprising. Personally speaking, Green’s name should be among the favorites as a finalist for the Jack Adams trophy. With the Senators trending towards their first playoff berth since 2017, Green’s fingerprints are all over the team’s success – specifically defensively. A group that struggled mightily to keep pucks out of their own net under DJ Smith, Green has coached the Senators – a group that is largely the same as it was under the prior regime – to one of the league’s better defensive teams. Per money puck, they rank 10th in xGA per 60.
While I don’t see this name getting serious consideration, Montreal Canadiens’ bench boss Martin St. Louis may be a dark horse if his team can hang on to the second wildcard seed in the Eastern Conference. A poor underlying process will work against him (28th in xG percentage per money puck), but what really separates St. Louis from Evason and Huska? Especially if the Habs make the playoffs? I don’t see him being a finalist, but St. Louis’ name is one that may garner more traction should the Canadiens punch their ticket to the playoffs.
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