Why Connor Bedard’s sophomore ceiling is much higher than you think

Credit: Dec 19, 2023; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Blackhawks forward Connor Bedard (98) skates against the Colorado Avalanche at United Center. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Sabau-USA TODAY Sports

It’s easy to forget that Connor Bedard just celebrated his 19th birthday this summer. He’s still new to having a driver’s license. Only recently eligible to vote. Somehow, he’s 20 years younger than Alex Ovechkin.

But no one in hockey can truly understand the pressure placed on the teen from North Vancouver.

Connor McDavid? His debut nine years ago arrived when social media was less exhausting — and on a roster already featuring three #1 overall draft picks. Sidney Crosby? At the time of his 2005 debut, the iPhone was still a few years away and rival Ovechkin helped shield some of the spotlight. Different times.

The Blackhawks‘ have managed Bedard’s media availability and tireless practice sessions, yet the echo chamber that follows rarely stops. Today’s article isn’t about heaping more pressure on a teenager or creating unrealistic expectations. Bedard doesn’t need to score 50 goals or win a scoring title by a certain deadline. The rebuilding Hawks are seeking incremental gains and player development — a Stanley Cup isn’t yet in view.

What is in view, however, is an explosion from Bedard. His ascension will be so fast and so seamless that you’ll forget the day he wasn’t one of the world’s greatest athletes. It’s inevitable. Let’s explore why this is the case and what his highly anticipated sophomore season could look like.

Rookie Season

Last October, Bedard’s debut against Crosby’s Penguins was the most-viewed NHL regular season game on cable TV, excluding Winter Classics. Hello, world. Over the next six months, the 18-year-old met the lofty expectations and hype. He delivered a Calder Trophy-winning performance, earning 93% of the vote share despite missing 14 games with a broken jaw on a team that finished last in goals scored.

His 82-game pace: 27 goals, 47 assists, 74 points.

It wasn’t Crosby’s 102 points at the same age or Auston Matthews’ 40-goal debut. And Bedard visibly faded down the stretch — one goal and no multi-point efforts in his last 14 games. But given the circumstances on a roster ravaged by injuries and trades, his season was rightfully celebrated as a success.

A deep dive into Bedard’s rookie season in March showed that — after adjusting for era — his 72-point pace was 10 points above average among forwards selected #1 in the salary cap era. It also highlighted that among the seven generational forwards debuting since Gretzky, Bedard was second-youngest to Crosby.

Generational Talents

That standing as a generational talent is why I’m so bullish on Bedard’s imminent breakout. By possessing a combination of prodigious skill and drive rarely seen, he’s not simply a highly regarded prospect. He’s not limited to can’t-miss status like John Tavares, teammate Taylor Hall, or Jack Hughes, either.

Think bigger.

We tend to consider player development as gradual progress. Like Quinton Byfield’s or Nick Suzuki’s. A few steps forward. A few steps backward. Then a well-paved path to stardom after a few seasons of apprenticeship and adjustments.

But those rules don’t apply to singular talents like Bedard. There is no ceiling year to year.

The phrase ‘generational talent’ is a rabbit hole. Can there only be one every 15 years? Every five? Can players cross over? Is every new dominant player one? We’ll go with this definition from that previous article on Bedard’s rookie season: a player with such unmistakable promise and immediate impact that they could reasonably be the NHL’s best player over a 10-year span. We’ll park our arguments for including defensemen, goaltenders, and Matthews for another day, focusing on the eight forwards below.

Incredibly, of the seven generational forwards before Bedard, the average result was a scoring title by their third NHL season at an average age of 21.

Now, there are some distinctions. Gretzky played in the WHA, a legitimate professional league, before the NHL. Lemieux, Lindros, and McDavid turned 19 during their rookie seasons. Jagr was new to North America. Ovechkin was already 20 when he debuted. But the takeaway is clear… players of this echelon become the best in world almost immediately and without interruption. It doesn’t take five or six years and organizational patience.

Counter Arguments

Okay, pump the brakes.

We’re talking about an undersized forward that scored four power play goals last year on a team still projected to finish in the NHL’s bottom five by the betting market. But here’s why common concerns don’t hold weight when it comes to Bedard:

But he was only on pace for 74 points last year… As much as Bedard was worth the price of admission, he was 58th in NHL points-per-game. If we exclude the 20-year-old rookie Ovechkin from the generational talent sample, however, the average rise in adjusted production is 25% in Year Two. In Bedard’s case, that’s a 92-point pace in 2024-25. As the second-youngest in the sample after a season interrupted by injury, there’s reason to believe Bedard outperforms the average increase.

But he’s not playing with other elite players… This argument works in Bedard’s favor. He managed to perform at a high level with Philipp Kurashev, Nick Foligno, Ryan Donato, Lukas Reichel, and Anthony Beauvillier as his most common linemates last season. While reinforcements Tyler Bertuzzi, Teuro Teravainen, and a healthy Hall won’t keeping opposing coaches up at night, the inflow of talent can only help Bedard. It also presents a deeper power play than the one that scored just 39 goals last year.

But what about cautionary cases like Alexis Lafrenière… It’s simple to paint all top prospects with the same brush. Bedard is not Lafrenière. Bedard broke the Canadian World Junior scoring record with 23 points in seven games. At age 17. In a 19-year-old tournament. Lafrenière, by comparison, had one point in five games at the same age. By entering a scorched-earth rebuild, Chicago has offered Bedard maximum opportunity and room for error, deftly handling his development on and off the ice. Lafrenière entered the NHL a full year older on an impatient Rangers’ team in win-now mode.

But he’s too small to dominate that quickly… Crosby crushed this narrative two decades ago. While Bedard may not have debuted with Crosby’s engine, he’s similarly below average height, bottom-heavy, and dominates in tight quarters. Size is simply not a prerequisite in an open, skilled NHL that has seen offensive levels not approached in three decades. Patrick Kane and Nikita Kucherov have offered templates in all-world brilliance without long reaches or brute strength.

Sophomore Ceiling

By looking around the league, the expectations for Bedard’s output in 2024-25 arrive at a general consensus. The Athletic‘s Dom Luszczyszyn’s dynamic Fantasy Hockey Cheat Sheet projects Bedard for 31/52/83 in 78 games — a top-25 finish in the NHL points race. The Hockey News annual fantasy preview has Bedard’s line at 35/45/80 in 80 games.

NHL.com says 85 points. ESPN says 76 points. The oddsmakers show his over/under at 78.5 or 79.5 points. Our own fantasy guru, Matt Larkin, doesn’t offer a hard number but “can confidently predict this is the final time [Bedard will] be available outside the first round in redraft leagues for the next 15 years.”

My sophomore prediction for Bedard leans into the potential of a true generational talent.

I think we’re going to blink and see him ascend near the top of the league by April. Assuming full health, Bedard will hit 40 goals and 100 points. His breakout will be heavily fueled by becoming a legitimate power player weapon. He’ll progress so quickly that he’ll be an easy choice as a top-six forward that leaves a mark on Team Canada in the 4 Nations Faceoff. Visually, Bedard will routinely make highlight reel plays that few others consider — both as an elite sniper and playmaker.

By his third season at age 20, he’ll be a 50-goal threat, among a handful of the world’s best players, and a focal point of Team Canada’s 2026 Olympic program. As McDavid, Kucherov, and Nathan MacKinnon creep into the back half of their careers, Bedard’s silky mitts will accept the torch.

Optimistic? Maybe. But with McDavid and Crosby, the seismic step forward was fast. Faster than you remember. Their ability and drive blew away the most rose-colored development plans. Freight train talents that come along every 10 years don’t stop and wait for you to adjust. They quickly set the standard and the rest of the league tries to keep up.

So, grab some Chicago Mix and enjoy the show.

Follow @AdjustedHockey on X; Data from Hockey-Reference.com and EliteProspects.com

Summer Content by Paul Pidutti

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