WJC betting preview (Dec. 29): Canada vs. Germany odds

Join Daily Faceoff’s Nick Martin as he breaks down Sunday’s preliminary round matchup between Canada and Germany at the U20 World Junior Hockey Championships.

Canada vs. Germany Odds

• Canada Moneyline (3-Way): -9900
• Germany Moneyline (3-Way): +3900
• Puck Line: Canada -6.5 (-118), Germany +6.5 (-118)
• Game Total: 8.5 (Over -112, Under -125)

Game odds via bet365.

Handicapping Canada

Canada will look to bounce back after ending up on the wrong side of one of the greatest upsets in hockey history Friday, when they fell 3-2 in a shootout versus Latvia. Latvian goaltender Linards Feldbergs stopped 55 of 57 shots before stopping all eight Canadian shooters in the shootout.

Some sportsbooks did not even post moneylines on the game, and only posted goal spreads. The ones that did offer moneylines, posted Latvia at 40-1 or longer.

Canada outshot Latvia 57-27, and on another day obviously could have garnered a better result. That argument does not draw the same measure of solace it would if we were analyzing a hockey game between two more evenly matched sides, though, and Canada’s inability to rack up a loftier offensive output punctuated pre-tournament concerns regarding the team.

Far too many of Canada’s 57 shots came from the perimeter, and it did not do a good enough job of forcing pre-shot movement from Feldbergs with passes through the Royal Road. NHL teams are opting to pass up low percentage shots more than ever now as shot on goal averages are down considerably, while shooting percentages are up.

The highest level teams are passing on borderline shots more than ever in order to attempt passes that create chances, which are far more challenging for goaltenders to save. While it was clear that Canada’s offensive philosophy was a concern versus Latvia, the same flaws were also relevant in its final pre-tournament game versus Czechia.

This will be a comparable situation to Canada’s matchup versus Latvia in that it should spend the vast majority of the game playing in the offensive zone, as the Germans will likely look to sag and keep five skaters below the puck as much as possible.

Chances are that even if Canada doesn’t change up its offensive philosophy all that greatly, it will still garner a larger offensive output, as obviously part of the disaster versus Latvia was that Feldbergs played incredibly well. Still, it will be interesting to see if head coach Dave Cameron’s side adopts stylistic changes to help power more offensive success ahead of more difficult matchups.

The Canadians also suffered a tough loss in Friday’s game, as top defender Matthew Schaefer was injured and will miss the remainder of the tournament. As a result, 2023 third-rounder Sawyer Mynio of the WHL’s Seattle Thunderbirds has officially been registered for the tournament.

Schaefer had been quarterbacking Canada’s top power-play unit, which has succeeded on just one of seven opportunities so far in the tournament. Based on their work with their club teams, Sam Dickinson deserves to be viewed as Canada’s top defensive option to run the power play, but it’s unclear if he will be moved onto the top unit or not in this matchup.

Based on Canada’s start to the tournament it’s natural to criticize its decision to pass on high upside talents such as Bennett Sennecke, Zayne Parekh, and Andrew Cristall, particularly after comparable decisions lead to an ugly fifth-place finish in last year’s tournament.

With that said, there is still more than enough firepower on the Canadian roster to turn things around, and the early goings of all international hockey tournaments can be volatile. For example, the 2023 Canadian World Championship team for example drew harsh criticism for its ugly start to the tournament, and ultimately came together to win gold.

But for now, there are plenty of questions to be answered by Cameron’s group, and it seems likely to expect a highly urgent effort in this matchup as they look to bounce back from a historic loss.

If Canada had not lost to Latvia, I’d imagine we might have seen perceived No. 2 goalie Jack Ivankovic make his final start of the tournament in this matchup. It’s possible that plan may change based on Friday’s result, and that we will see Carter George start in this matchup. George entered the preliminary round as the team’s top option, and likely is still viewed as such after his 31-save shutout versus Finland.

Handicapping Germany

Including the pre-tournament games, the Germans have been outscored 28-10 so far. In the preliminary round they lost 10-4 to the USA and fell 3-1 to Finland in their last matchup.

As Latvia is looking scrappier than expected, it seems possible that they will end up playing in the relegation final versus Kazakhstan, which would be a notable disappointment for a hockey program which has been trending in the right direction in recent years.

It’s unclear whether Germany will turn to Nico Pertuch, Leon Hümer, or Linus Vieillard in goal for this matchup. Vieillard stopped 40 of 42 shots faced versus Finland, which could mean he is offered another chance to work in this matchup.

Germany put together a relatively scrappy performance versus Finland, but were unable to generate anything significant offensively. That may be the case moving forward, as thanks in part to the injury of top prospect Kevin Bicker, the team has a significant lack of offensive punch. It has only one skater drafted to the NHL on the roster, and only a couple of players which have been impactful in higher levels of competition.

Best bets for Canada vs. Germany

This matchup is drawing much more attention from Canadian fans and players alike than it would have if the Canadians weren’t entering off a humiliating defeat.

Chances are we will see Canada bounce back with a fairly convincing win, and it certainly will look to continue pouring it on late in this matchup even if the game is well out of reach for Germany.

The fact that Germany does not have any overly convincing goaltending options compared to Feldbergs, who has been effective in the QMJHL, could work in favour of Canada covering the spread of -6.5. Still, I’m not entirely sold on Canada covering -6.5, though it does feel like a difficult spot to handicap.

The game total of 8.5 looks a touch high, and is my favorite bet from this matchup. Chances are we will see Germany try its absolute best to keep this game as battened down as possible, but likely will score less than two goals in this matchup.

And chances are it will take Canada netting seven or more goals for the game total to get past 8.5, and I believe the Canadians will fail to do so often enough for there to be value backing the under.

There also still looks to be value with my pre-tournament pick in backing team USA to win gold at +110. USA won gold in this tournament last season, and looks poised to go back-to-back with a team that is arguably better than last season.

Best Bet: Under 8.5 -125, USA to Win Gold +110

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