Peters: 2022 NHL Draft stock watch, trends as season winds down

The 2022 NHL draft is still months away, but there’s always movement in a draft season. As we go along for the home stretch, I’ll try and check in a little more often with some of the trends I’m noticing, whether it’s on individual players, what teams are thinking and what I’m hearing in the buildup to Montreal.

The playoffs are underway in most European leagues right now, the junior leagues are in the closing weeks of their regular seasons and college hockey is just about done, so we’re all running out of time for more viewings on this class, but there’s a lot of work left to be done before we get to July 7. Let’s get to it.

Trending Up

Juraj Slafkovsky, C/W, TPS: Everyone saw what Slafkovsky did at the Olympics, scoring seven goals and earning MVP honors at just 17 years old for bronze medalist Slovakia. The big question was: would his confidence from the Olympics translate back to his club team in Finland? Answer: Yup.

In 21 games prior to the Olympics, Slafkovsky had four points for TPS and just one goal. In the 10 regular-season games he appeared in after Beijing, Slafkovsky scored four goals and had six points. Another indicator of his improvement is that he registered 36 shots on goal over those 10 games, which represented 40 percent of his shots on goal total for the year. Now, in the Liiga playoffs, he has a goal and two assists. As a result, his ice time is going up and he’s being looked to even more for offense by his club. It’s remarkable to see him just surge this way.

Slafkovsky was already a consensus top-10 pick, but now it’s hard to see a scenario in which he slips out of the top five or perhaps even the top three. With his size, his shot and his newfound confidence, his game has taken off in a way that is really exciting.

Jagger Firkus, RW, Moose Jaw Warriors: A player-of-the-game performance at the CHL Top Prospects Game, where Firkus scored a goal and had an assist for Team White in its win over Team Red, was a way to enhance an already-rising stock in this particular draft class. Currently eighth in the WHL and second among draft-eligible players with 78 points, Firkus has put himself firmly in the first-round conversation.

Discounted for his size at 5-foot-9 and 153 pounds, Firkus has been showing that he has the skill and tenacity to create for himself and his linemates. His ability to get inside and beat defenders one-on-one has him popping at the right time. He is one of 13 players in the WHL with 35 or more goals this season. He showcased his elite shot and high-end skill at the Top Prospects Game where he stood out among the top CHL draft-eligibles.

Cutter Gauthier, C/W, U.S. National Under-18 Team: There are going to be a lot of NTDP forwards getting picked in the first round this year, but one who is really surging in terms of draft stock is Gauthier. He just keeps getting better and stronger as this season goes on. With 31 goals, he leads the NTDP and has one of the better shots in this draft. It’s heavy and quick and he’ll shoot it from anywhere. On top of that, Gauthier has a big frame and is doing a better job of using it to help him create offense. It can be hard to stand out on that NTDP team, but Gauthier has regularly.

Trending Down

Joakim Kemell, RW, JYP: Kemell dealt with an injury coming out of the World Junior Championship and didn’t play for about a month. Then he didn’t score for a good long while. After putting up 18 points in his first 21 games and looking like he was on a record scoring pace in Liiga, he returned and had five points in his last 18 games of the season. He finished with a still-impressive 23 points in 39 games.

I’m not saying that Kemell’s stock has cratered. He’s still going to be an early pick, but it’s looking far less likely he’ll go in the first five picks of the draft. He has high-end skill and one of the better shots in the draft. There’s no question he has a lot of value, but the last half of his season definitely recalibrated expectations some.

Brad Lambert, C, Lahti Pelicans: Lambert moved to his hometown club midseason and there was hope that would spark his offense. In the end, he produced four points in 25 games with Lahti – two fewer points than he produced with JYP in one fewer game. No one denies his skating and his skill level, but the lack of progression year over year is alarming to say the least. At this point, I don’t believe Lambert will fall out of the first round, but it is looking like a greater possibility than at any point previously.

Maveric Lamoureux, D, Drummondville Voltigeurs: Lamoureux is one of the most intriguing players in this draft because he’s a 6-foot-7 right-shot defenseman with pretty good hands. There are clear physical tools there. His hockey sense, however, is a bit unrefined. It got exposed a bit more at the CHL Top Prospects Game last week and the pace of the game seemed to get to him a bit. That’s not to say there isn’t still a ton of upside in the player, because there is. His raw tools are very enticing in a player of his size, but the decisions with the puck and the ability to process a fast game are going to be things that need refinement.

Looking for a Defenseman?

The 2022 NHL Draft class is average, or maybe a little bit below in terms of overall talent and depth. But it is very rich in one area – defense. While there are a number of high-end forwards available throughout the draft order, defensemen are starting to take center stage more prominently and we could see a high number of blueliners selected in the first two rounds.

Part of what makes this draft so intriguing is that there’s a variety of defensemen in this class that can play the game a lot of different ways. It just depends on preference and fit, but you can find dynamic offensive-minded defensemen, punishing shutdown ‘D’ with size and high-end two-way blueliners.

There are about 10 or 11 defensemen that at least have a shot at going in the first round this year, give or take a few. There’s enough season left for that to be sorted out further and some players can yet rise and fall, but there is a very intriguing crop of defensemen available in 2022.

The top tier of defensemen of this draft are viewed as likely top-10 picks. Czech blueliner David Jiricek and Slovak Simon Nemec are interchangeable depending on who you ask. Jiricek has been injured most of the season but remains highly regarded, while Nemec has put together an unprecedented season in the Slovak pro league as only Marian Hossa and Marian Gaborik scored more points in their under-18 season. Both right-shot defensemen, one or both could easily go in the top five depending on how things shake out. Teams will often lean forward when it’s close, but Jiricek and Nemec have such tremendous upside.

The next tier appears to include Pavel Mintuykov of the Saginaw Spirit. Though there is some curiosity about how negatively Russian players will be impacted at the draft, Mintuykov is insulated from some of that because he’s already in North America. On top of that, he’s one of the most purely skilled offensive talents among blueliners in this class as he has 53 points in 60 OHL games so far this season.

After Mintuykov there’s a little bit of a drop to the next tier of defensemen, but there still could be more rearguards picked in the lottery range. More than likely, the back half of the first round is going to be loaded with blueliners.

The top of the next tier includes a pair of big WHLers in Kevin Korchinski of the Seattle Thunderbirds and Owen Pickering of the Swift Current Broncos. Korchinski is the more offensively gifted of the two. Both are highly mobile left-shots that are north of 6-foot-2. They’ve been risers all year and only continue to surge. Korchinski has 55 points in 61 games this season.

The tier with Korchinski and Pickering may also include the top scoring defenseman of this draft, Denton Mateychuk of the Moose Jaw Warriors. He just had a standout performance at the CHL Top Prospects Game last week and has been hitting the scoresheet on the regular all season. He is currently averaging better than a point per game with 60 points in 59 WHL contests.

After that, there’s a host of other defensemen that at least have a chance to go in the first round. Minnesota high school star Sam Rinzel has moved up a lot of boards as a big, raw right-shot with legit skill. Two-way defenseman Ryan Chesley at the U.S. National Team Development Program has been a bit polarizing, but some teams view him as a legit first-rounder even though his numbers haven’t popped this year. Swiss rearguard Lian Bichsel is 6-foot-5, a smooth skater, quality defender and has played in Sweden’s top pro league all year. Meanwhile, opinions on right-shot Tristan Luneau are all over the map, but he remains highly regarded for his play at both ends of the ice for the Gatineau Olympiques.

That doesn’t even cover all the options, but if you’re looking for a defenseman in this draft, it’s a good year to be doing it. There are a lot of big guys, a lot of right-shot players with offensive upside for first-round options. In the second and third rounds, you’re going to see a lot of variety, too, including offensive dynamos like Lane Hutson, Ty Nelson and Michael Buchinger, just to name a few.

The Russian Factor

For years, the Russian Factor was used as a catch-all term for why certain players fell out of the first round. Some of it was tied to the concern about how long it would take to get a player over due to their KHL contract – a concern that still exists. Other times it was a shorthand way to refer to some of the stereotypes about certain players from Russia, not the least of which was the notion they were “enigmatic.”

This year, the Russian factor is very different. While at the CHL Top Prospects game, I tried to get a sense of how teams are feeling about Russians as now there’s a wholly different reason teams may steer clear.

As Frank Seravalli reported weeks ago, the NHL and KHL have broken off communication and any business dealings. That does not preclude players from leaving the KHL, so long as they’re no longer under contract, but it does make the process a bit more complicated.

As a result, there is an expectation among those in the industry that NHL Draft prospects that are currently based in Russia or under contract with a Russian team will slip in the draft. The most prominent example is likely Danila Yurov, who plays in the Magnitogorsk system. In normal times, he’s a likely early first-round pick. Probably not now.

Yurov is under KHL contract through next season, too. Right now, the common theme that you hear is that teams aren’t entirely sure about how the IIHF transfer process will look, what it will be like to get visas for players and how to, if they’d be able to at all, get a player from Russia to North America. If a team wants a player badly enough, though, it’ll find a way.

NHL teams are also definitely concerned about the optics of drafting Russian players given what’s going on in the world, but it is very unlikely to outright stop them from drafting one. Mintuykov, for instance, is surging in terms of his draft stock because of the season he’s had in the OHL. His being in North America already also eliminates any fears of being able to bring a player over and he’s made it clear he plans to stay in North America to continue his hockey career.

It’s one of the things that teams will navigate. There are probably going to be fewer Russians drafted this year overall, but the best players will still be picked.