Seravalli: NHL teams are asking for 2023 Draft picks over 2022

It’s been exactly one month since the NHL’s last trade of significance, when the Calgary Flames acquired forward Tyler Toffoli from Montreal in a Valentine’s Day swap that Cupid apparently could not have matched better.

Toffoli has collected eight goals and 13 points in 14 games for the Flames, who are 10-3-1 since the trade.

That was also the first trade of this deadline period to feature a first-round pick.

With one week to go until the March 21 deadline, how many more will be moved?

Historically, we know that an average of four are dealt each deadline over the last decade.

But this trade deadline may be a bit different from the rest in that, so far, teams have asked for and prefer 2023 draft picks as compensation over picks from the upcoming 2022 Draft. They are seen as more valuable – and that includes later-round picks, not just first-round picks.

Unscientifically, the 2023 Draft is perceived as being “deeper” than 2022. Whether that is actually true depends on the eye of the beholder.

So much of what will transpire over the next week will likely be circumstantial and dependent on what teams have to trade. This year, it just so happens also that some of the teams that may be most active (Florida, Colorado, Vegas, Carolina) have already traded away their top 2022 picks and only have 2023 currency to trade.

Let’s take a deeper dive into the first-round pick market:

Which players on the Trade Targets board can generate first-round picks in return this year?

C/W Claude Giroux, Philadelphia
C Tomas Hertl, San Jose
LW Brandon Hagel, Chicago
RW Brock Boeser, Vancouver
LD Jakob Chychrun, Arizona
LD Hampus Lindholm, Anaheim
LD Ben Chiarot, Montreal
G Marc-Andre Fleury, Chicago

Borderline: LD Mark Giordano, Seattle

Which buyers could move first-round picks?

Los Angeles Kings
Minnesota Wild
New York Rangers
St. Louis Blues
Toronto Maple Leafs
Carolina Hurricanes [2023]
Colorado Avalanche [2023]
Florida Panthers [2023]
Vegas Golden Knights [2023]

In an era of instant gratification, why would teams want to wait an extra year to get a pick playing their organization?

Here are some thoughts from Daily Faceoff‘s prospect and draft analyst Chris Peters:

I think there’s a general feeling that the first round in 2022 isn’t especially exceptional outside of the lottery range. There has been a perception for some time that the top of the 2023 Draft is much more plentiful than the top of 2022 in terms of true difference makers. Beyond Connor Bedard and Matvei Michkov, who will be two of the best players to come through the draft in the last few years, there’s also Adam Fantilli, who leads the USHL in goals now and led the league in postseason goals last season. Charlie Stramel at the U.S. NTDP was out for most of the year with an injury, but he’s back and scoring and looks like the power forward teams dream about. So there’s an especially high-end group at the very top.

Keep in mind that there are also a lot of players that missed significant development time and it’s showing for some of them. Getting those 2023 picks means you’re going to be dealing with a draft that is the most normal we’ve had since 2019. For instance, this year, a lot of OHL players have shown signs of how much losing last season hurt them. Others were disrupted or maybe some even had COVID. The further we get from these pandemic seasons, the more normal the scouting calendar will look and the more comfortable teams will be about the picks they make because the season will be closer to normal.

Is the 2023 draft class actually ‘deeper’?

From Chris Peters:

The true ‘depth’ of the 2023 class is a lot harder to project at this point. There will be a lot changes year-over-year and even during the year. I think we’re all more excited about the top players in 2023, but beyond them, there’s enough players that look like they could be really nice picks outside of the Bedard, Michkov Tier. You could probably look to at least seven or eight 2023 draft-eligibles that are having particularly impressive 2021-22 seasons, so it definitely creates some more excitement.

However, if you’re a team interested in drafting defensive help, I think you’d rather hang onto or acquire 2022 picks because there’s quite a few intriguing first-round talents in particular for this year’s draft that everyone has good books on by now.

The 2022 class has a lot of flawed players. I really, really like the lottery range because there’s multiple defensemen, centers and a lot of speed. But this draft doesn’t have as much sizzle all the way through.

When is the last time we saw teams prefer a later draft class when trading for picks?

It hasn’t happened often. The best example is the 2014 deadline, when both Marty St. Louis and Ryan Miller were traded for 2015 first-round picks, which was the Connor McDavid draft class.

How many first-round picks have historically been traded during the deadline period?

The average number of first-round picks traded over the last five years is five per trade deadline. Taking it back a step further, the average over the last decade is closer to four. Only one was moved in 2016, but there were seven traded in both 2015 and 2018.

2020-21: 4
Players involved: Anthony Mantha (WSH), Nick Foligno (TOR), David Savard (TBL), Kyle Palmieri / Travis Zajac (NYI).

2019-20: 6
Players involved: Brady Skjei (CAR), Barclay Goodrow (TBL), Jean-Gabriel Pageau (NYI), Ondrej Kase (BOS), Blake Coleman (TBL), Jason Zucker (PIT).

2018-19: 4
Players involved: Kevin Hayes (WPG), Brandon Montour (BUF), Matt Duchene (CBJ), Jake Muzzin (TOR).

2017-18: 7
Players involved: Ryan McDonagh / J.T. Miller (TBL), Evander Kane (SJS), Tomas Tatar (VGK), Paul Stastny (WPG), Ryan Hartman (NSH), Rick Nash (BOS), Derick Brassard (PIT).

2016-17: 3
Players involved: Kevin Shattenkirk (WSH), Martin Hanzal (MIN), Patrick Eaves (ANA).