What would a Vancouver Canucks rebuild even look like?

Even the grouchiest, most miserable Eeyore of a pessimist could not have imagined this nightmarish October for the Vancouver Canucks.

Quinn Hughes, Travis Dermott and Tucker Poolman injured, sawing the team’s blueline in half? Check. Captain Bo Horvat, on an expiring contract, wondering aloud if the team will ever win again? Check. J.T. Miller, signed to an eight-year, $56 million contract that pays him until he’s 37, calling himself “irrelevant”? Check. Fans throwing jerseys on the ice? Check.

Coach Bruce Boudreau, after Monday’s loss dropped Vancouver to 0-5-2, wondering if the team suffered from a “fear of winning”? Check.

And perhaps most demoralizing of all: team president of hockey ops Jim Rutherford, appearing over the weekend on Hockey Night in Canada After Hours, indicating the team “may very well be in a rebuild.”

The same team that played .649 hockey over the final 57 games of the season after Boudreau took over last year? The same team that brought KHL star Andrei Kuzmenko to North America and just signed Ilya Mikheyev as a UFA on a four-year deal at a $4.75 million AAV? The same team that punted futures to the Arizona Coyotes a year ago to take on six years of Oliver Ekman-Larsson and signed Conor Garland to a five-year extension?

Oh dear. If the Canucks are truly considering a rebuild, reversing course for a roster very obviously not constructed for rebuild mode will prove extremely challenging.

If Vancouver can’t climb back into the Pacific Division race, I can understand the motivation to rebuild, sure. The team’s playoff odds have already shrunk to a nub. And if you’re going to nosedive, The Connor Bedard Year is the best window to do so, so it’s not the worst idea to deliberately deplete your roster via seller trades. But could it even happen? If the Canucks have no choice but to rebuild or retool, could their expensive, win-now roster even be converted to a tanker?

The way I see it, they have a few easy escape hatches and several others that will be much harder to trigger. Here is a tiered breakdown of how a Canucks rebuild or retool could semi-plausibly unfold this season.

No-Brainer Option

Trade Bo Horvat. That’s easy. When your captain expresses a lot of negativity in the press, is a pending UFA and hasn’t made progress with you on a contract extension, it’s not exactly a morale booster. It feels like Horvat is nearing the end of his time in Vancouver. And, goodness, could he ever fetch GM Patrik Allvin a lovely return. With Horvat’s blend of all-situations play, goal scoring and faceoff prowess, he’d be an extremely popular rental piece for a contender. He’d easily command a first-round pick and quality prospect in a trade.

Realistic Option

Trade Tyler Myers. He has two years left at a $6-million AAV, so the acquiring team would likely want Vancouver retaining salary, but it shouldn’t be that hard to find a market for an experienced, top-four, right-shot blueliner. A contender could commit to that for a season and a half. He’ll be 34 by the time his contract ends. He does have a 10-team no-trade list, however.

Plausible option

Trade Brock Boeser. It would be a shame after the two sides worked out a three-year extension this past offseason paying Boeser $6.65 million annually. But Boeser has been so injury-prone in his career that he hasn’t even hit the 30-goal mark since debuting in 2016-17. At the same time, he’s only 25 and his pure shooting talent is undeniable, so he could still be an attractive medium-term investment, and the two years of term remaining on his deal mean the market for him wouldn’t solely have to consist of top-tier Cup contenders. Boeser’s contract also has zero movement restriction on it until July 1, 2024 when a 10-team no-trade list kicks in.

Long-shot options

Trade Conor Garland. Surprise healthy scratching aside, Garland has a feisty, heart-and-soul skill set that should appeal to any contender. The contract is still pretty fresh though. It’s year 2 of a five-year pact carrying a $4.95 million AAV. That doesn’t feel like a contract you agree to take on during the season. It would make more sense to acquire Garland in an offseason hockey trade in which you send similar money and term Vancouver’s way.

Trade Tanner Pearson. He’s a proven top-nine winger with a Stanley Cup ring. He could return a mid-round pick as a depth add at the trade deadline. But he has two seasons left at a $3.25 million AAV thanks to a deal that was ill-advised the day previous GM Jim Benning handed it out. The Canucks would almost certainly have to eat salary for a Pearson deal to happen. He also has a seven-team no-trade list.

Fire Bruce Boudreau. You can’t pull the “fire the coach to jumpstart the room” trick twice in less than a calendar year…can you? Typically, any 0-5-2 bench boss should look over his shoulder, but removing Boudreau would be sneaky-complicated. It would mean the Canucks are paying three coaches between Travis Green, Boudreau and the replacement. That would be painful. Since Boudreau isn’t under contract for next season anyway, it makes more sense to ride out the storm with him.

Hail Mary options

Buy out Oliver Ekman-Larsson. The good news? If you did it after this summer, you wouldn’t feel the pain right away. Per capfriendly, Year 1 of an ‘OEL’ buyout would only carry a $146,667 cap hit. But it would jump to $2,346,667 in Year 2, then two painful years at $4,766,967, and it would total $20,533,336 over 10 years. Ouch. The deal isn’t quite buyout proof, but it’s close.

Trade J.T. Miller. It would be unprecedented (I think?) to move Miller before his seven-year extension kicks in. No way the Canucks would retain salary, so you’d have to convince the acquiring team that it was essentially “signing” Miller as a UFA. Given he isn’t done his prime years yet and would have easily commanded seven years at an $8 million AAV on the open market next summer, maybe the Canucks sell a team on it. It would be a do-over on a deal that somehow has aged poorly before it even begins.

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