10 contract-year NHL players off to blistering starts in 2024-25
Don’t believe in the contract-year explosion? Tell that to 2024 UFAs Sam Reinhart and William Nylander. They went absolutely bonkers with career years in 2023-24, securing set-for-life contract extensions with their teams.
We’re a little more than a month into the 2024-25 NHL campaign, but we already have early inklings on which pending UFAs and RFAs are fattening their wallets with monster contract years.
Which players have done the most early on to increase their values?
Note the word increase. You won’t find top 2025 UFAs such as Igor Shesterkin, Mikko Rantanen or even Mitch Marner on this list, as their values were already pretty much maxed out.
Sam Bennett, C, Florida Panthers (UFA)
As a power forward and reigning Stanley Cup champion with a vicious mean streak, Bennett was always going to be a hot UFA commodity. But he’s racked up nine goals and 15 points in his first 15 games this season, producing at a rate commensurate to his No. 4 overall pick status in the 2014 Draft. He’ll cash in massively if he delivers a career year, but he’ll also be one of the riskier UFA buys on the market because his rugged style leads to plenty of injuries. He never plays a full season.
Mackenzie Blackwood, G, San Jose Sharks (UFA)
Perhaps Blackwood felt Yaroslav Askarov’s breath on his neck? Blackwood has been a world beater for the lowly Sharks early in 2024-25. Among 52 goalies to play five or more games this season, he sits 16th in goals saved above expected per 60. Should he leave the Sharks this summer, it likely won’t be for a starting gig, but he could sign with a contender as a backup with upside.
Nikolaj Ehlers, LW, Winnipeg Jets (UFA)
Will the Jets regret not getting something for Ehlers on the trade market in the offseason? They risk losing him for nothing now, albeit it may be worth it if he ends up an “own rental” given how dominant the Jets have been this season. Ehlers posts a sparkling 9-9-18 stat line through 15 games, tracking to shatter his personal bests. At 28 and blessed with blinding speed and a solid play-driving impact, he’ll be one of the top UFAs on the market, especially factoring in that the superstars such as Shesterkin and Rantanen likely will re-sign with their clubs well before July 1.
Mikael Granlund, C, San Jose Sharks (UFA)
He’s just so versatile. After delivering a 60-point campaign on last year’s awful San Jose team, Granlund is a better than a point-per-game player through 17 games this season. He plays more than 21 minutes a game and mans the top power play and penalty killing units. He can play all three forward positions. That’s a darned useful piece for a contender looking to plug multiple holes with a single player – at the 2025 trade deadline and again a few months later in free agency.
Matthew Knies, LW, Toronto Maple Leafs (RFA)
The Leafs may want to get Knies signed ASAP before his value shoots into the stratosphere. He’s breaking out as a net-front beast on the power play, and his 5-on-5 advanced metrics reflect a player maturing into stardom. Knies’ development is trending much more toward his ceiling than floor. Here’s an in-depth look on the rise of Knies.
JJ Peterka, LW, Buffalo Sabres (RFA)
It would’ve been wise business to lock up Peterka this past summer, no? He was a 22-year-old coming off a breakout year in which he scored 28 goals while playing 16:34 a night, sitting in the 94th percentile in goals per 60. Now, we’re watching him blossom into a point-per-game player, manning the left wing on Buffalo’s top line. If sure feels like he’s played his way into a long-term deal similar to what Tage Thompson and Dylan Cozens have signed in recent years. That would put Peterka in the range of $7.1 million on a seven-year deal. If he maintains anything close to his current rate of production, he’ll command that type of AAV.
Neal Pionk, D, Winnipeg Jets (UFA)
As a member of the Jets wagon, Pionk is almost halfway to last season’s point total by the 15-game mark. He and partner Dylan Samberg have controlled a merely fine 51 percent of the expected goals, suggesting they, like the Jets, are playing a wee bit over their heads. Pionk has also scored on 9.1 percent of his shots, an unsustainable mark for a defenseman. Of the names on this list, he’s arguably least likely to maintain his current contract-year pace.
Jack Roslovic, RW, Carolina Hurricanes (UFA)
When you see a player like Roslovic snipe nine goals in 14 games, the first thing you do is peek at that shooting percentage. Okay, it’s 23.7 percent. That number will come down. But Roslovic has done many other things right in his debut campaign with the Canes; he averages close to three shots on goal per game after averaging 1.54 in the first eight seasons of his career. His tremendous speed has worked well on Carolina’s top line. Roslovic’s production will regress, but he’s absolutely annihilating his career bests in all his major individual scoring metrics at 5-on-5, including shot and scoring chance generation. It therefore looks like Roslovic is in the midst of a peak season just in time to hit the market again in summer 2025.
Marco Rossi, C, Minnesota Wild (RFA)
Rossi was quietly one of NHL’s better rookies last season, not just because he flourished in spurts on the top line, but also because he showed some real two-way chops, flashing a Nico Hischier-like ceiling. Getting an extended look as Minnesota’s No. 1 center, dishing the puck to Hart Trophy candidate Kirill Kaprizov, Rossi is producing at close to a point per game this season. Not bad for a guy who was reported to be a trade candidate in the offseason.
John Tavares, C, Toronto Maple Leafs (UFA)
Tavares eulogies have become an annual tradition, but every time his decline into third-liner status is supposed to happen, he silences the doubters. So far this season, he’s managed a highly respectable eight goals and 14 points in 15 games. The Leafs have a 5-on-5 expected goal share north of 55 percent with him on the ice. He’ll never be an $11 million man again, but talk of him taking peanuts to stay in Toronto on a Jason Spezza-style deal looks extremely premature.
_____
POST SPONSORED BY bet365