Ceiling is higher than we imagined for Maple Leafs’ rising star Matthew Knies

Toronto Maple Leafs left winger Matthew Knies

Credit: Oct 31, 2024; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Maple Leafs forward Matthew Knies (23) reacts after scoring a goal against the Seattle Kraken in the first period at Scotiabank Arena. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-Imagn Images

The image was a fantasy brought to life for Toronto Maple Leaf fans: a big, strong, young power forward, parked in the crease of a divisional rival, imposing his will, screening the opposing goaltender and perfectly timing a tip-in. That was Matthew Knies converting on the power play against the Boston Bruins in Toronto’s 4-0 win Tuesday night, continuing to establish himself as the net-front dominator the franchise has craved.

“I’m a bigger player, so I like to take [the goalie’s] eyes and just make plays down there,” Knies said. “Obviously you let the skill guys be on the outside and make those plays. They make incredible plays. So I just put my stick in a good area and make sure they can find me.”

If you followed Knies’ prospect ascension when he developed with the University of Minnesota for two seasons after the Leafs took him 57^th overall in 2021, you knew this was his game. He was in fact the net-front power play forward on those dominant Gophers teams, as he reminded reporters after the game Tuesday night. The scouting reports at the time singled Knies out as somewhat of a unicorn, a big man with an intriguing blend of vision and hands to match his physicality. But that was the college version of Knies; there was no guarantee his skills would translate immediately to the NHL.

He flashed right away when he joined the Leafs late in the 2022-23 season and playoffs, showing impressive strength and two-way smarts. After a good but unspectacular rookie campaign in 2023-24, he levelled up in Round 1 of the playoffs versus the Bruins, burying an overtime winner in Game 5 and showing a true dawg factor many of his teammates seemed to lack. But Tuesday’s two-point effort, in which he jumped up to the top power play unit with superstar Auston Matthews injured, showcased a trend with Knies this season: his trajectory is beginning to skew much more toward ceiling than floor. When he broke into the league in 2022-23 it wasn’t a matter of whether Knies could be a useful NHLer, as his well-rounded game made that likely. It was a matter of whether the finesse part of his game could carry over. He had already established himself as an important top-six forward with a unique skill set, but Knies, 22, is starting to flash legitimate star potential now.

The power-play work will continue to give Knies a boost, but the ascension in his on-ice impact was already astoundingly clear in his 5-on-5 play before Tuesday’s promotion. Here’s a snapshot of how his individual play-driving metrics have trended in the regular season since his first full campaign last year:

Season	Games	Shots/60	iSCF/60	iHDCF/60	iXG/60
2023-24	80	6.23	6.59	4.37	0.71
2024-25	14	8.14	11.09	7.51	1.14

The 2024-25 sample size is still small, but Knies has become an absolute wrecking ball. Playing with world-class linemates in Matthews and Mitch Marner doesn’t explain it away, either; they were Knies’ two most frequent linemates last season, too. It takes a great player to keep up with great players. And here’s where Knies sits relative to other NHL forwards (min. 100 mins played) in those same play-driving metrics this season:

Stat	Percentile
Shots/60	77^th
iSCF/60	99^th
iHDCF/60	93^rd
iXG/60	91^st

Knies is grading out like an All-Star-caliber forward so far this season, and it’s showing up in his primary numbers, too; he’s tracking for his first 40-goal campaign. The shooting percentage is likely to regress from 21.9 percent, but Knies is getting so many high-quality, high-percentage looks that he should convert at a high rate all season, Zach Hyman style.

“We’ve been talking about things we can improve on and traffic and shots are in that conversation, so he’s [had] a big role in that,” said Leafs defenseman Morgan Rielly.

“He’s an unbelievable guy, hilarious guy, he’s just stepped up his game a lot,” said Leafs right winger William Nylander. “I think he’s matured in his game [as] a great power forward winger, in front of the net when he is making plays. He’s very strong on the puck and winning pucks back and then finding the guys that are open.”

Knies said Tuesday that teammate John Tavares has been a major inspiration, that he’s learned a ton studying Tavares’ post-practice habits and commitment to working on tips and footwork in front of the net. But the better comparison for what Knies is becoming might be New York Rangers net-front monster Chris Kreider. He’s a left winger who parachuted from an elite college program into the NHL at 20 years old and made an immediate impact in the 2011-12 playoffs; Knies is a left winger who parachuted from an elite college program into the NHL at 20 years old and made an immediate impact in the 2022-23 playoffs. Kreider is 6-foot-3 and 230 pounds; Knies is 6-foot-3 and 227 pounds. Kreider broke out in his second full NHL season, and Knies seems to be doing the same. Every time it seemed like Kreider had peaked, he levelled up again, eventually becoming a 50-goal scorer. Is that where Knies is headed?

It’s obviously too early to know. But what we do know is Knies isn’t going to settle in as a middle-six banger at this point. He’s establishing himself as a vital member of Toronto’s core. Tuesday marked the second time in his career that he’d eclipsed 20 minutes of ice time in a regular-season game, and he’s relishing the increase in his responsibility.

“I get more confident in each game,” Knies said. “As the season goes on, obviously, I’m playing with some incredible players, it just gives me confidence with the puck. You’re getting to see those minutes and those opportunities. I’m very fortunate for it, so I’ve just got to keep working and keep pushing to stay in that spot.”

Knies is an 2025 restricted free agent, eligible to sign an extension any time now, and seems to have played his way past bridge-contract territory. If the Leafs and GM Brad Treliving are wise, they might want to lock Knies in at good-for-both-sides AAV before his game upgrades again and his price tag skyrockets.

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Ceiling is higher than we imagined for Maple Leafs’ rising star Matthew Knies

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