2023–24 NHL team preview: Anaheim Ducks

Credit: Trevor Zegras (© Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports)

LAST SEASON

The season before last, GM Pat Verbeek began his roster teardown, trading away franchise stalwarts Hampus Lindholm, Josh Manson and Rickard Rakell. Longtime captain and Ducks all-time leading scorer Ryan Getzlaf also retired. In 2022-23, with the core turned over, we felt the thud as the stripped down version of Verbeek’s Ducks bottomed out. Going 23-47-12, the Ducks finished last overall and posted the lowest points percentage in their 30-season history at .354.

Ascending youngsters such as Trevor Zegras and Troy Terry plateaued. Top young blueliner Jamie Drysdale suffered a season-ending shoulder injury after just eight games. The Ducks finished with the league’s 31^st best power play and penalty kill. They allowed the most shots per game by any team in NHL history at 39.1, topping a field that includes 1,663 clubs across 105 years. They had the worst goal differential of any NHL team since 2000 at a staggering -128.

So, yeah, things went badly last season. But that was the plan, wasn’t it? The result was landing the No. 2 pick in the NHL Draft Lottery and snagging a future franchise cornerstone in center Leo Carlsson. The Ducks have one of the league’s most loaded prospect crops, so the ascension will begin soon enough.

KEY ADDITIONS & DEPARTURES

Additions

Alex Killorn, LW
Radko Gudas, D
Robert Hagg, D
Alex Stalock, G
Ilya Lyubushkin, D

Departures

Kevin Shattenkirk, D (Bos)
Max Comtois, LW (UFA)
Anthony Stolarz, G (Fla)
Simon Benoit, D (Tor)
Derek Grant, C (Switzerland)
Jayson Megna, C (Bos)
John Moore, D (UFA)
Nathan Beaulieu, D (Car-PTO)
Michael Del Zotto, D (UFA)
Dylan Sikura, C (UFA)
Olle Eriksson Ek, G (Sweden)

OFFENSE

The Ducks have some scintillating talent developing at forward. Zegras is one of the most dynamic young playmakers in the sport. He stalled in his second full NHL season, however, with his 23-goal, 65-point stat line looking like a carbon copy of his 23-goal, 61-point rookie effort, which came in fewer games. At 22, he’s nowhere close to his ceiling yet. Same goes for burgeoning No. 2 center Mason McTavish, who brings first-round pedigree of his own and a more physical game. Terry regressed following his 37-goal breakout the previous season but has established himself as a bona fide top-six forward and has a shiny new seven-year contract extension to show for it.

The have Ducks continuously iced a feeble attack in recent seasons, however. Their other recent early-round investments – Max Jones, Sam Steel, Max Comtois – failed to pan out and provide crucial secondary scoring. Steel and Comtois are no longer Ducks. Veteran additions like Ryan Strome, last year’s big free agent signing, have fallen short of expectations, too. No Ducks player topped 23 goals last season, and only the Chicago Blackhawks scored fewer goals as a team. In 5-on-5 play, the Ducks generated the third-fewest scoring chances per 60 and had the fourth-worst expected goals rate.

So can we expect any improvement this time around? Possibly. The Ducks overpaid for some veteran help, bringing in longtime Tampa Bay Lightning stalwart Alex Killorn, who turns 34 in September, on a four-year deal at a $6.25 million AAV. He’s coming off career highs of 27 goals and 64 points. He might not reach those heights with an inferior supporting cast, but he will elevate the floor of Anaheim’s top six. With a healthy Drysdale and Cam Fowler pushing the pace from the back end and top prospect Carlsson at least having a chance to make the big club, we could see a mild upswing. Really, as bad as the Ducks were last season, it would be difficult not to improve their scoring.

DEFENSE

Statistically, the 2022-23 Ducks were in the discussion for the worst defensive NHL team of all-time. Their expected goals against per 60 sat at a jaw-dropping 3.41; the second-worst mark in the league was 3.02. The Ducks allowed a downright comedic 16.04 high-danger chances per 60 minutes. Their sieve-like team defense was the result of having overmatched young forwards up front and a D-corps full of aging, offense-oriented veterans. The likes of Kevin Shattenkirk and John Klingberg were revolving doors. It hurt losing Drysdale so early in the season, too.

The good news is that the Ducks defense corps looks different this season. On top of Drysdale returning, they get some much needed snarl with the signing of Radko Gudas. They may have overpaid for a veteran who typically played sheltered minutes with the Florida Panthers, but he undoubtedly makes this team tougher to play against. Same goes for UFA addition Robert Hagg and mid-August trade acquisition Ilya Lyubushkin. Each of them ideally would play lower in the lineup on a better team, but the Ducks will rely on them plenty to make opposing attackers think twice when entering their zone.

The Ducks might also soon benefit from an injection of young potential on their blueline. Jackson LaCombe got his feet wet last season, while if even one of top prospects Pavel Mintyukov or Olen Zellweger cracked the opening-night roster, it would greatly increase the mobility and offensive upside of the D-corps. No matter what, though, this group’s raw ability to defend will remain well below average.

GOALTENDING

For a second consecutive offseason, rumors swirled about longtime starter John Gibson wanting a change of scenery and, for a second consecutive offseason, Gibson’s camp publicly downplayed the chatter. In both cases, was it backtracking after no teams came calling to rescue him? Gibson, 30, still has four years left on his contract at a $6.4 million AAV. Relative to his performance, it’s one of the most prohibitive deals in the league when it comes to trading. Gibson hasn’t posted a save percentage better than .904 in any of his past four seasons.

Not that the poor numbers are completely his fault. Judging by 5-on-5 expected goals against per 60, which approximates the degree of difficulty of a netminder’s workload, Gibson had the hardest job in hockey last season. No puck-stopper in the league had an xGA/60 anywhere near his 3.48. He averaged almost five shots against more than the second busiest goalie in the NHL! He performed at much closer to a league-average level than his surface stats suggest.

Still, he has to start looking over his shoulder at this point. Lukas Dostal has a strong chance to establish himself as the No. 2 now that Anthony Stolarz departed as a UFA. Dostal, 23, has delivered three above-average AHL seasons and hasn’t looked out of place in his tastes of NHL action so far. His .902 SV% in 23 games over the past two seasons is better than Gibson’s .901 mark over that span. The August signing of Alex Stalock on a one-year, one-way contract clouds the picture, however, especially considering Dostal is waivers exempt. It’s possible he has to start the season in the AHL.

COACHING

After Dallas Eakins couldn’t move the needle in four transitional seasons, the Ducks turn to Greg Cronin, who becomes a first-time head coach in the NHL. Cronin does have decades of pro experience, including stints as an assistant coach with the New York Islanders and Toronto Maple Leafs. He served as head coach of the AHL’s Colorado Eagles for the past five seasons. Cronin is known as a detail-oriented bench boss who instills defensive conscientiousness, a trait the Ducks desperately need.

ROOKIES

No. 3 center Isac Lundestrom injured his Achilles tendon during offseason training and will miss the next six months at minimum. Suddenly, the Ducks have quite the hole up the middle, and that greatly increases the odds of Carlsson making the team. He’s blessed with the size and two-way smarts to become a dominant all-around play driver at the NHL level. He has experience competing against men in the SHL and even got to play with high-end NHLers for Sweden at the 2023 World Championship and didn’t look out of place. He could thus transition smoothly to the NHL and contend for the Calder Trophy if the Ducks decide he’s ready.

Carlsson isn’t the only Ducks rookie knocking on the door, however. They have two of the top blueline prospects in the sport in Zellweger and Mintyukov, both of whom have dominated the major junior level and have little left to prove. Center Nathan Gaucher, whom they snagged in Round 1 of the 2022 Draft along with Mintyukov, is a name to watch as well. Gaucher plays such a bludgeoning physical game that he’s capable of playing in the bottom six as a grinding forechecker.

The most likely Anaheim rookies to make an impact in 2023-24, of course, are the guys who have already seen some minutes at the NHL level. LaCombe got two games in last spring after a great NCAA career, while Dostal retains his Calder eligibility after appearing in four and 19 games, respectively, over the past two seasons.

BURNING QUESTIONS

1. Is Trevor Zegras ‘Him’? He’s the king of the highlight-reel assist, the video game cover boy, a marketable talent with oodles of personality and tremendous raw skill. But his game didn’t evolve much year over year, and with Carlsson coming, Zegras isn’t locked in as the franchise’s most important pillar at forward anymore. It’s even possible they consider moving Zegras to the wing once Carlsson sticks with the club, with Carlsson and McTavish manning the top two spots up the middle. Zegras is an RFA at the moment, so the money and term Anaheim gives him will indicate where they envision him in their long-term plans.

2. Will Lukas Dostal take over as the Ducks’ No. 1 goaltender? Gibson is still on the books several more years, but a rebuilding Ducks squad may want to see what it has in the promising Czech keeper.

3. Is Jamie Drysdale still the future – and present – of Anaheim’s blueline? He should assume a significant role coming back from injury this season. But his game is built around offense, and the Ducks will soon have some extremely promising offensive defensemen nipping at his heels in Mintyukov and Zellweger. Both are left shots, and Drysdale is a righty, but they could push him for power-play time eventually. Drysdale has a lot to prove this season.

PREDICTION

The Ducks just completed their worst season ever and were historically awful on defense. Adding a few grizzled veterans and breaking in some promising rookies won’t yield a massive climb in the standings. At least it can’t get any worse in 2023-24. The Ducks could see mild improvement, maybe enough to leapfrog a terrible San Jose Sharks team, but there appears to be a significant gap between the 7-8 spots and the top six in the Pacific Division. Seventh place feels like a safe bet for Anaheim.

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