2024–25 NHL team preview: Columbus Blue Jackets
UPDATE: This story was updated in the wake of Johnny Gaudreau’s passing the night of Aug. 29.
LAST SEASON
I feel like I need to put a trigger warning for Columbus Blue Jackets fans before beginning this section, because it went about as poorly as it could possibly go. After an offseason spent trying to solidify the team and at least make them competitive by acquiring defensemen Damon Severson and Ivan Provorov, the Blue Jackets looked to hire a new head coach that would help change the culture and make them competitive. They did so by hiring Mike Babcock, who had a much-maligned exit with the Toronto Maple Leafs that exposed his toxic methods of managing players.
Somehow, that hiring went worse than even the most pessimistic fans predicted, as Babcock didn’t even make it to training camp before it was revealed that he was looking through all his players’ photos to judge their character. So in came assistant coach Pascal Vincent, who was an improvement off the ice but not on the ice. He consistently fumbled the usage of the Blue Jackets’ young talent, played Patrik Laine at center for no apparent reason, and just did not get anything out of a roster that had a bit of potential. And while all that was going on, goaltender Elvis Merzlikins requested a trade, Laine landed in the NHL/NHLPA player assistance program, and top rookie Adam Fantilli suffered a season-ending skate cut to his calf in January. To tie a bow on it: long-time general manager Jarmo Kekalainen was fired during the winter and Vincent got his pink slip after the season. The Blue Jackets finished with a 27-43-12 record that was the fourth-worst in the league and the worst in the Eastern Conference.
Columbus made a few moves this offseason, like trading Laine to the Montreal Canadiens, adding Sean Monahan, and hiring Don Waddell and Dean Evason as the new GM and head coach. However, tragedy struck on August 29th, as star forward Johnny Gaudreau and his brother Matthew died after being struck by the vehicle of an alleged drunk driver.. Suddenly, any on-ice concerns about this team feel unimportant in the wake of his passing.
KEY ADDITIONS & DEPARTURES
Additions
Sean Monahan, C
Jordan Harris, D
Jack Johnson, D
Dylan Gambrell, C
Departures
Patrick Laine, LW (Mtl)
Alexandre Texier, C (StL)
Adam Boqvist, D (Fla)
Jake Bean, D (Cgy)
Alex Nylander, LW (Tor-AHL)
OFFENSE
The Blue Jackets were far from the worst team at generating offense last season, but they were still in the bottom half of the league, whether that be in goals (tied for 24th in the league with 2.85 per game), 5v5 shot attempts (18th with 59.47 per 60 minutes) or 5v5 expected goals (20th with 2.53 per 60). On top of that, they only had three players eclipse 40 points (Johnny Gaudreau, Zach Werenski and Kirill Marchenko), and only two players eclipse 20 goals (Marchenko and Boone Jenner). In their defense, it was a revolving door of players in 2023-24 due to injuries to the top guys, with 37 skaters playing a game last season and only eight players getting into at least 70 games, but even then only seven players that played for the team all season averaged at least 0.5 points per game. Their power play didn’t help either, which clicked at a horrid 15.1% that was the second-worst rate in the league.
While there are far more important things to worry about with the passing of Gaudreau, it does leave a big impact on the Blue Jackets’ offense this season. Not only will his skill and hockey IQ be missed on the ice, but the hole it leaves in the dressing room will be felt even more. It’s an unfortunate reminder about the mortality of even the best athletes, and how while signing them to a contract feels like you’re guaranteed to see it through, tragedy can change that in an instance. Columbus will obviously not be expected to replace Gaudreau’s impact on such short notice heading into the season, but his death and trading Laine means their offense will look completely different.
If there’s anyone fit to pass the torch to in terms of Gaudreau’s impact on the Blue Jackets, it’s his former Calgary Flames teammate in Monahan. He was Columbus’ big signing this offseason, and while the original intention was for a reunion with Gaudreau, their close relationship may provide Monahan with the ability to carry on Gaudreau’s leadership and honour his memory. With Monahan coming off his most productive season since 2018-19, he may be able to provide an offensive spark for the Blue Jackets as well.
Beyond Monahan, where Columbus will likely look to improve offensively is from their young core of Marchenko, Sillinger, Adam Fantilli, Yegor Chinakhov, Kent Johnson and David Jiricek. While the aforementioned issues of their usage last season didn’t help things, they haven’t quite produced as expected at the NHL level, and they have the ceiling to really turn the Blue Jackets’ offense around. Along with that, Evason’s impact on the team’s offense from a structural standpoint will also be a key to its improvement.
DEFENSE
While the Blue Jackets were merely mediocre offensively, they were horrible defensively. They were the second-worst in the league in goals against per game (3.63), third-worst in 5v5 shot attempts against per 60 (65.84), and third-worst in 5v5 expected goals against per 60 (3.02). Their penalty kill was a slight improvement, but even then, a 76.3% rate that ranked 26th in the league isn’t something to hang your hat on either. In most facets of the game, they couldn’t defend.
That’s what happens when you make a couple of big swings to improve your defense and miss. Severson barely kept his head above water with a 0.3 defensive goals above replacement, but Provorov was predictably a mess in his own end in tough minutes at -3.3. Add in the fact that Werenski has never been good defensively and Jiricek is still trying to get accustomed to the NHL game, and that left Erik Gudbranson as the returning Blue Jackets defenseman with the best defensive GAR at 2.2. Columbus probably doesn’t want to strive for that going forward. They added two new faces to their blueline, with Jordan Harris being an intriguing acquisition that could make the Laine trade pay off well for Columbus, along with a returning face in Jack Johnson who has only shown signs of competence in the Colorado Avalanche‘s unique team structure, so I wouldn’t hold my breath on the blueline being the reason for any big improvements unless Jiricek turns into a Norris Trophy candidate.
Up front, it’s not a lot better. Only Chinakhov and Kent Johnson had a defensive GAR higher than 1 on Columbus, which is at least a good sign for two players they want to be part of their long-term core. But when there isn’t much beyond that, it’s hard to get too excited about improvements for this group defensively when there weren’t any significant changes in the summer. Heck, Monahan probably makes the group worse with his -5.3 defensive GAR from last season. Once again, they’ll be hoping for improvements internally from their younger players, as well as the coaching to make a difference.
GOALTENDING
Considering how bad the defense was for the Blue Jackets in 2023-24, it probably comes as a bit of a surprise to find out that the goaltending wasn’t completely terrible. At 5v5, they were 16th with a 91.23% save percentage and then at all strengths, they were 21st at 89.53%. Individually, they got a solid performance from Daniil Tarasov (4.85 5v5 goals saved above expected), but Merzlikins, Jet Greaves, and Spencer Martin were a bit more middling (0.83, 0.23 and -0.97 respectively).
Despite a trade request from Merzlikins last season, both him and Tarasov will be returning to the Blue Jackets’ crease in 2024-25, and while Merzlikins got close to double the starts that Tarasov did, the team should probably aim to split their starts more this year. Last season’s 5v5 GSAx from Tarasov was higher than any result that Merzlikins has gotten in five seasons, so for now, he seems to be the better option in net. Greaves has also been solid in the 10 games he’s played in his career thus far, so even if one gets hurt, he is a solid replacement. No one on this team will be good enough to steal the show and carry a poor Blue Jackets team into the playoffs, but they won’t singlehandedly sink their season either.
COACHING
Coaching may have been the Blue Jackets’ biggest issue in 2023-24. They made the gamble on Babcock that failed miserably and quickly pivoted to Vincent, throwing him in a situation where he had no time to prepare. He seemed to actively try to do exactly what the team didn’t need to be doing in a rebuilding phase, which is put your young stars in the worst possible situations to develop them. There’s being tough on them and making them earn a spot on the team, and then there’s taking a spot that they’ve earned away from them for no apparent reason, and Vincent crossed that line numerous times over the course of the season, especially near the end when the team had little to play for.
While there was still some consideration for Vincent to return this season, Waddell opted to go with the more experienced Evason to man the bench in Columbus. While he also takes more of the tough love approach to his coaching style, there’s at least a bit of reasonability to how he approaches it that Vincent lacked. Evason comes with 251 regular season games as a coach with a 147-77-27 record, and playoff appearances in every season that he completed with the Minnesota Wild, although he does have an 8-15 record in the playoffs.
Also in those five seasons, Evason’s coached the Wild to 5v5 expected goals shares of 53.8%, 53.72%, 51.04%, 52.43% and 47.85%. For reference, the Blue Jackets haven’t had a positive 5v5 expected goal share since 2019-20 and have only once had one above 51% since the stat has been tracked. Whether Evason was a beneficiary of a much better Wild team or can extract a similar performance from the Blue Jackets may be a big factor for their improvement, especially when they didn’t make any significant changes to the roster.
ROOKIES
This category is wide open for the Blue Jackets considering the current state of the team. They have one of the best prospect pools in the NHL, but after graduating several players in recent seasons, the next wave may still be a year away.
Up front, it starts with Cayden Lindstrom, Columbus’ fourth-overall pick from the 2024 draft, someone who will likely give them a strong 1-2 center punch down the road with Fantilli. A back injury hindered his development last year, which might mean another season in the WHL is the smarter option for him, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him at least get a nine-game stint with the Blue Jackets to start the year. First, he has to get on the ice, though. He was ruled out of their prospect tournament and will be limited to start training camp as they manage the injury cautiously. On the wing, Gavin Brindley could also get a few shots with the team after getting into one NHL game last season, but it’s also likely that he gets a bit more seasoning before getting a full time role with the team.
After acquiring Harris, they aren’t likely to have a roster spot open for a rookie D-man, but Denton Mateychuk is a high-end prospect for the team who could potentially find a role on the NHL team at some point next year if he acquits himself well in the AHL this season.
BURNING QUESTIONS
1. How do the Blue Jackets heal from Gaudreau’s passing? Tragic doesn’t even begin to describe what happened to Gaudreau in the offseason, and the impact he had on the Blue Jackets dressing room will certainly be missing from the team this season. And for some of the longer tenured players, this is now the second time this has happened, after prospect Matiss Kivlenieks’ death in 2021. There isn’t exactly a question that needs to be answered, but it is very important to acknowledge the difficulty of this situation for Columbus, and how it may take a while for the team to truly move on.
2. Will the Blue Jackets’ young core take the next step? The Blue Jackets have one of the more intriguing groups of young talent in the league, with the likes of Fantilli, Marchenko, Sillinger, Chinakhov, Johnson and Jiricek already beginning to make an impact at the NHL level. And yet, none of them has really made significant noise yet (although some of that blame can also be given to Vincent and his interesting deployment of the younger players). If Columbus wants to take a step forward, they need the guys that they’re building their future around to take a step forward as well.
3. Will Don Waddell and Dean Evason right the ship? The Blue Jackets have had an interesting culture off the ice. They held on to Kekalainen for 11 seasons despite middling results and one playoff series win, all the while recently cycling through four different coaches in the span of four seasons (and three in the last year). Now they have Waddell and Evason, who both generally got good results with their previous teams and could maybe bring that same experience and culture to a Columbus team in need of a shift.
PREDICTION
The Blue Jackets have spent the past two seasons at the bottom of the Eastern Conference, and with just 59 and 66 points in those two seasons, they’d need a lot to go right to improve by 25 points and get back into the playoffs. If the veterans play to the peak of their abilities, the young guns take big strides forward, and Evason can get a solid structure together, maybe they can at least be in the conversation for a spot. But while I’d expect a bit more of an improvement from the past two years, it still seems like they’ll finish closer to those previous two point totals than they do a playoff spot next year.
Advanced stats courtesy of Evolving Hockey.
_____
POST SPONSORED BY bet365
_____