2024-25 NHL team preview: Dallas Stars

Credit: May 15, 2024; Dallas, Texas, USA; Dallas Stars defenseman Miro Heiskanen (4) and left wing Jason Robertson (21) celebrates a power play goal scored by Heiskanen against the Colorado Avalanche during the second period in game five of the second round of the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs at American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

LAST SEASON

The Dallas Stars ranked among the most popular Stanley Cup picks a year ago, and for good reason. They were fresh off a Western Conference Final appearance. They’d added Matt Duchene to an already-deep forward group that blended in-their prime stars Jason Robertson and Roope Hintz with savvy veterans Joe Pavelski, Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin and had Wyatt Johnston leading a next-wave youth movement. They boasted an alpha No. 1 blueliner in Miro Heiskanen and a Vezina Trophy candidate in goal with Jake Oettinger.

Somehow, Dallas rolled toward the postseason looking even stronger than it did in October. It already had the deepest forward group in the NHL, but it graduated another grade-A prospect in Logan Stankoven while Johnston notched his first 30-goal season. Young defenseman Thomas Harley broke out for 15 goals while forging a dynamic pairing with Heiskanen. Dallas even ponied up for shutdown defenseman Chris Tanev at the trade deadline and appeared to have no visible weaknesses. It finished with 52 wins and 113 points, both the second-highest totals in franchise history.

Still, it wasn’t enough. Dallas fell to the high-flying Edmonton Oilers in Game 6 of the Western Conference Final. The Stars’ special teams went cold and their defensive depth was exposed as a bit thin.

Anything less than a Stanley Cup Final berth or maybe even a championship will feel like a disappointment for a team this stacked. But don’t confuse that sentiment with the idea that Dallas is desperately all-in. Riding an incredible run of hitting on late first- or second-round picks, the Stars remain built to contend for many more years. But is this the season in which they break through?

KEY ADDITIONS & DEPARTURES

Additions

Ilya Lyubushkin, D
Matt Dumba, D
Casey DeSmith, G
Brendan Smith, D
Colin Blackwell, LW
Magnus Hellberg, G

Departures

Joe Pavelski, RW (retired)
Chris Tanev, D (Tor)
Ryan Suter, D (Stl)
Radek Faksa, C (Stl)
Jani Hakanpaa, D (Tor)
Craig Smith, RW (Chi)
Ty Dellandrea, C (SJ)
Scott Wedgewood, G (Nsh)

OFFENSE

Only two teams outscored the Stars last season, and only five iced superior power plays. No surprise there. It was a testament to the team’s unrivalled depth. They had eight players score 20 or more goals. By the postseason, the Stars were rolling Robertson, Hintz, Johnston, Mason Marchment, Duchene, Pavelski, Seguin, Benn and Stankoven across three lines.

The scariest thing about this group: there’s probably room for even more offense. Johnston delivered a team-high 32 goals in his age-20 season and feels like a strong bet to push for 40, especially if he permanently replaces the retired Pavelski on the top line. Speaking of which: Robertson and Hintz are coming off relative down years by their standards and, given they’re 24 and 27, respectively, seem capable of returning to their 2022-23 standards. Robertson is just a season removed from topping 100 points and finishing fourth in the Hart Trophy vote.

While it hurts to lose Pavelski, he had already run out of steam by the playoffs, and the ascension of Dallas’ youth brigade will offset his departure. It’s not just Johnston: Stankoven was a dominant junior scorer and is just scratching the surface of his potential, while reigning AHL scoring champion and MVP Mavrik Bourque should become a full-time fixture in the top nine now. Just four years ago, the Stars were still counting on Benn and Seguin as frontline scorers; now, they along with Duchene are steady complementary contributors.

Dallas should continue enjoying splashes of scoring from their two best defensemen as well. Heiskanen regressed a bit but, like Robertson, is a 24-year-old star whose 2022-23 output (73 points) was more indicative of his talent than the 54 points in 71 games last season. Harley scored on more than 10 percent of his shots and thus feels like a regression candidate, but his natural progression might offset that. He did rank seventh in the NHL in 5-on-5 goals per 60 but, even more importantly, he was fourth in individual scoring chances per 60. His breakout wasn’t a fluke at all.

DEFENSE

The Stars were stingy last season, befitting their powerhouse status, ranking eighth in the NHL in team defense and penalty killing. With better goaltending, they would’ve rated even higher, though. Dallas was the NHL’s fourth best team at suppressing 5-on-5 scoring chances and carried the second-lowest 5-on-5 expected goals rate, too. That’s…kind of how it works when Heiskanen is out there for 25 minutes a night. Dallas outchanced its opponents 716 to 490 with Heiskanen on the ice. He’s a do-it-all Clydesdale of a defensemen, and he and Harley rank among the most formidable duos in the Western Conference, right there with Toews-Makar, Hughes-Hronek and Ekholm-Bouchard.

But what will the support look like behind Dallas’ top pair? After buying out Ryan Suter and losing Tanev to free agency, GM Jim Nill opted for a patchwork approach. He had to earmark cap space for Harley, who remains unsigned as an RFA, and likely tried to learn from last year and deepen Dallas’ blueline with veteran help. But was it the right veteran help? Ilya Lyubushkin and Matt Dumba aren’t exactly play-driving darlings at this stage of their careers. Will they fare better in Dallas’ system, or will they drag the team down? The other new arrival, Brendan Smith, has fared better than them recently and will help the PK, at least.

Whether the D-corps additions pan out or not, the forward group should continue providing defensive assistance. Hintz and Robertson rank among the better two-way forwards in the sport. They finished sixth and 14^th, respectively, on the Selke Trophy ballot last season and each received at least one first-place vote. Sam Steel has been quite helpful in his fourth-line and PK1 assignments, too.

GOALTENDING

It feels odd to say goaltending held back Dallas for much of last season, but it’s true. Oettinger was not himself for much of the year. Among 54 goalies who appeared in 25 games last season, he sat 38^th in 5-on-5 goals saved above expected per 60, hardly indicative of his all-world talent. In the playoffs, though? Only the New York Rangers’ Igor Shesterkin was better in the same stat. Oettinger found his groove when it counted. His up-and-down regular season was likely the product of fighting through a groin injury. Glass half full: Playoff Oettinger was the real Oettinger. Glass half empty: the Stars have to hope his 6-foot-5, 220-pound frame isn’t becoming prone to soft-tissue problems. He’s undeniably one of the highest-ceiling stoppers in the sport, but he requires a reliable backup to keep him fresh. Scott Wedgewood did a great job in that role but priced himself out of Dallas as a UFA. His replacement, Casey DeSmith, is coming off his worst season but carries a .909 career save percentage and is generally regarded as one of the NHL’s sturdier backups.

COACHING

Pete DeBoer enters his third season behind Dallas’ bench and is rapidly ascending the unofficial list of best coaches never to win a Stanley Cup. In 17 seasons with five teams, he has reached two Stanley Cup Finals and a whopping seven Conference Finals, including two in a row with the Stars. They have become a significantly more dangerous offensive team since he took over and have not sacrificed their defensive discipline in the process. At virtually every stop of his career, he has harvested career-best work from his No. 1 defenseman, and that includes Heiskanen’s offensive explosion in 2022-23.

ROOKIES

Few teams can claim to have two Calder Trophy candidates in their lineup on opening night. Dallas can. Having played 24 games last season, Stankoven just barely retains his eligibility. He’s a tenacious honey badger of a player, overcoming his small frame with dogged determination, and he has the offensive chops to put up points in bunches, too. He was a fixture in the postseason lineup. Bourque, meanwhile, dipped his toes in the water for just one game in the regular season and one in the playoffs but is no longer blocked on the depth chart. He led the AHL with 77 points in 71 games last season. Stankoven is a natural center yet has a game that translates to the wing, whereas Bourque’s slightly bigger frame and playmaking sense make him a more suitable long-term bet to become Dallas’ No. 2 center.

BURNING QUESTIONS

1. Is Dallas’ blueline a finished product? Even with the veteran additions, the sum of the parts remains underwhelming behind Heiskanen, Harley and Esa Lindell. Will Nill have to consider pursuing help at the trade deadline in hopes of putting his team over the top?

2. What happens if Stankoven and/or Bourque don’t meet the hype? To be clear: the prediction here is they absolutely do meet the hype and rank among the league’s top rookies. But they’re still rookies and thus can’t be considered sure things. If they aren’t ready to be above-average regulars, Dallas’ forward depth won’t be as strong as advertised and Pavelski’s absence will be felt.

3. Seriously: What is this team missing? The Stars have elite forwards, elite depth, elite defensemen, an elite goaltender and elite prospects. If they can’t break through and win a championship one of these years, they’ll run the risk of getting slapped with a choker label.

PREDICTION

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: Every other fan base in the league should envy what Dallas has. No team has a better mix of youth, star power, wily veterans and depth. The Stars should remain the class of the Central Division and are as strong a pick as any to win the Stanley Cup. But they have to clear the Conference Final hurdle first.

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