Checking in on 4 Nations Face-Off goaltenders: Who’s thriving and who isn’t

Steven Ellis
Steven Ellis(sellishockey)
Connor Hellebuyck (Sergey Fedoseev/KHL)
Credit: Sergey Fedoseev/KHL

Ah, goaltending. A hot topic, no matter the occasion.

The 4 Nations Face-Off is about three weeks away. No matter your opinion on the event’s existence, it should be an exciting display of hockey. It’s best-on-best for the first time since the World Cup 2016 – and a lot has changed on the international landscape since then.

For starters, Sweden’s Jacob Markstrom is the only returning goalie to have played at least one game in that tournament, with USA’s Connor Hellebuyck serving as Team North America’s third-string keeper behind Matt Murray and John Gibson. Canada’s goaltending has taken a steep nose dive, falling drastically from the likes of Olympic champion Carey Price and Stanley Cup winners Corey Crawford and Braden Holtby. USA’s goaltending has taken big steps forward, with Hellebuyck arguably being one of the best goaltenders of his generation. Finland, meanwhile, has seen all three of their goaltenders retire and haven’t exactly developed the goalie factory they were once known for – but they’ve got a certified star in Juuse Saros.

So, how do the four teams’ crease situations stack up ahead of the first game on Feb. 12? A lot has happened since the initial roster announcements on Dec. 4, so we’re going to check in on who’s been hot and who’s been, well, not since then:

Canada

Jordan Binnington, Adin Hill, Samuel Montembeault

For all the stat nerds, here’s something for you: since Canada’s roster announcement on Dec. 4, the No. 1 (18.0) and No. 3 (13.68) goaltenders in goals saved above expected are Logan Thompson and Mackenzie Blackwood. No. 7 is Darcy Kuemper at 11.27. The highest-ranked goalie that actually made it was Montembeault, with his 9.53 placing him one spot behind in eighth. You have to go all the way down to 36th to find Hill’s 1.82 GSAx, and 61st out of 75 goalies to find Binnington’s ugly -3.81 rating. So, while that stat isn’t the be-all and end-all of goalie evaluations, it’s useful in finding out who’s really performing at a high rate.

Thompson was arguably the best Canadian goaltender at the time of the announcement, too. The only notable stat he isn’t leading in since the roster was unveiled is total wins with 12, sitting just one behind Connor Hellebuyck. Thompson has gone 12-1-1 in that span with an incredible .938 save percentage, cementing himself in the Vezina Trophy conversation.

Both Montembeault and Hill have winning records in that time frame (although that can be attributed to being on two of the best teams since December), while Binnington has had a bit of a rough patch. Hill is the only one packing a surface save percentage above .900, and he’s 12th among Canadian goaltenders at .903. Binnington and Montembeault are both at .897, with Binnington actually boasting a solid .928 5-on-5 save percentage – good for 15th among all NHL goaltenders and third among Canadians.

Canada’s goaltending has always been viewed as the weakest link, and it’s still hard to feel confident in this group. Realistically, Canada’s goaltenders aren’t so bad that they’ll actively sink them, but they just need one of them to get hot at the right time. It still feels like Binnington’s net to lose because the other two options simply haven’t done enough to change that, even if the St. Louis Blues goaltender has struggled to win consistently.

Finland

Juuse Saros, Kevin Lankinen, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

Just like with Canada, the top Finnish goaltenders over the past month and a half are guys who didn’t make the team: Nashville’s Justus Annunen and Ottawa’s Leevi Merilainen. Projected starter Juuse Saros is 5-8-1 since Dec. 4, with his .886 save percentage putting him near the bottom of goalies with at least 10 starts. He even boasts the league’s worst goals saved above expected at -10.03 – ouch.

Still, it seems unlikely that Saros won’t be the No. 1. At his best, he’s the top Finnish goaltender in the world, and he has been since Tuukka Rask retired. Lankinen has been the best since the start of the season, though, and while his recent stretch of games hasn’t been as impressive, he has been one of Vancouver’s most important players from the get-go.

With Finland’s roster being the weakest of the four – on paper, at least – they will need their goaltending to step up. We know Saros is capable of carrying a team on his back – he’s done it often in Nashville. But if he falters, it’ll be interesting to see if they go with Lankinen, who is sharing the net with Thatcher Demko in Vancouver, or Buffalo’s No. 1 in Luukkonen.

Regardless, it’s looking a bit shaky in net for the Finns – but at least Saros has proven he can be a game-saver under pressure in the NHL.

Sweden

Linus Ullmark, Jacob Markström, Filip Gustavsson

An injury has limited Ullmark to just seven games since Sweden’s roster was announced, but he went 7-0-0 with a .963 save percentage and two shutouts. his 12.25 GSAx is fifth in the NHL, and his .965 5-on-5 save percentage puts him in the top spot. so, sure, the sample size isn’t huge due to the injury, but he was starting to look like the Ullmark we saw win the Vezina Trophy a couple years back in Boston.

Assuming Ullmark is ready to go in time for the tournament, he should be the team’s No. 1. But if not, Markström been pretty special himself recently. He is 9-3-4 in his past 16 starts with a .920 save percentage and an 11.66 GSAx (sixth in the NHL). At the very least, he’s in the top 10 in just about any other notable category. Markström is more than capable of leading the charge if needed, just like he has for the Devils all season long.

The only issue? Markström was injured on Wednesday night. We’ll see if what the deal is there soon.

And then there’s Gustavsson. He’s had a bit of a rocky road recently, but Gustavsson has been a top-10 goaltender throughout the season and a big reason why the Minnesota Wild started the season off so well. The fact that he’s the third goalie shows you that the crease won’t be a problem for Sweden.

Ullmark is on the Senators’ current road trip, so he’s likely not far from returning to game action. And if he gets back and looks good, he’ll be the No. 1 for sure.

United States

Connor Hellebuyck, Jake Oettinger, Jeremy Swayman

Hellebuyck is going to need a total collapse to not win the Vezina Trophy at this point. He’s been the league’s undisputed No. 1 and enters the 4 Nations Face-Off as the top dog around. Hellebuyck doesn’t have a ton of international experience, but he’s 9-1 all-time with USA. Most notably, he was named to the World Championship all-star team in 2015 before he ever sniffed the NHL.

So the starter’s gig is an easy one. But having Oettinger and Swayman as backups just makes everything so much sweeter. Oettinger has been just fine recently, but his analytics are still solid and better than most other goalies in this tournament. It’s crazy to think that Oettinger could become one of the best American goalies of his generation and never be the team’s No. 1 internationally.

And the same goes for Swayman, who has really bounced back in recent weeks after a rocky first half. Part of that was just the underwhelming play of the team in front of him. Still, it felt like we weren’t seeing Swayman at his best. He’s boasting a 5.23 GSAx since Dec. 4 as the Bruins continue to try and limp their way into a playoff position.

USA’s goaltending is the best in the tournament, no doubt. If Hellebuyck falters, they’ve got two other capable backups ready to steal the show. America, enjoy it – you’ve never had a pipeline as deep as this.

_____

SPONSORED BY bet365

Recently by Steven Ellis

Keep scrolling for more content!
19+ | Please play responsibly! | Terms and Conditions apply