2025 Conn Smythe Trophy power rankings: Playoff MVP candidates entering the third round
We’re now halfway through the Stanley Cup Playoffs, and it’s given us a fair share of entertaining games that will be worth rewatches from time to time. It’s also given us plenty of spectacular performances from individual players that have played a big role in their team advancing to the Conference Finals.
While the Stanley Cup is what teams play for, the Conn Smythe Trophy is also a massive honor for a player, indicating the importance to their team in winning the Cup (or as we saw last season, how close their play got their team to winning). So, with all of the great performances we’ve seen from some players thus far, how do they compare to each other?
Let’s dive into the current scope for the Conn Smythe Trophy and see who the frontrunners for the award are at this point in time. While the value of their performance will play the biggest factor in their ranking, the likelihood of their team winning it all and how much their performance stands compared to other teammates’ also played a role.
1. Connor McDavid, Edmonton Oilers
It speaks a lot to how spectacular of a player McDavid is that it might be a surprise to see him sit in first place. Despite the fact that he’s performed at the same pace as the top scorers in the league, he is still playing a bit below the level that we expect from him. He’s lacked the single-game performances where he’s carried the Edmonton Oilers to victory outside of Game 1 against the Los Angeles Kings – which was a loss. Mikko Rantanen has certainly had a lot more of those games up to this point, and who your pick for first place is may come down to whether you prefer those big-game performances or a quieter but more consistent performance.
If it’s consistency you prefer, McDavid is definitely your guy. He’s been held off the scoreboard twice in the playoffs, and has generally found a way to get on the board, even if he hasn’t had those standout games that Rantanen has had. McDavid also only has three goals so far and only had one goal against the Vegas Golden Knights, so compared to Rantanen’s nine, that could also go against him.
However, when the margins are so close between two players, you also have to look at their performance at the other end of the ice, and that’s where McDavid far exceeds Rantanen. Among the four teams remaining in the playoffs, his 1.96 5v5 expected goals against per 60 is eighth in the league among forwards that have played at least 100 minutes. Rantanen is much, much lower, with his 2.98 rate is the fifth worst among remaining forwards. Considering both players are playing top competition, it’s certainly more impressive that McDavid is winning his minutes at both ends of the ice.
2. Mikko Rantanen, Dallas Stars
Make no mistake, the difference between McDavid and Rantanen in this race so far is razor thin, and it all comes down to what you prefer in an MVP candidate. McDavid has been the more consistent player, but Rantanen has stepped up at big points in the playoffs for the Dallas Stars and led them to victory. We’re only through two rounds, and he’s managed to have five games with three or more points, highlighted by his back-to-back hat tricks in Game 7 against the Colorado Avalanche and in Game 1 against the Winnipeg Jets.
However, with those five games with three or more points also come games where he’s been a non-factor, and that’s happened a lot. People forget that Rantanen started the playoffs with just one assist through four games, and he also went pointless in three of the six games in the second round against the Jets. Rantanen has been very hot or cold, and the Stars have lived and died by that, especially as the rest of their supposedly deep roster has yet to really contribute.
Perhaps the most exciting part about this close battle between McDavid and Rantanen is that this Western Conference will decide the victor. Only one gets to go to the Stanley Cup Final, and it’s going to be exciting to see both players perform at the top of their games to get there.
3. Frederik Andersen, Carolina Hurricanes
While it’s a very clear two-horse race for first, Andersen isn’t all that much farther behind in third place. Some of that does have to do with the fact there isn’t really a clear-cut second choice on the Carolina Hurricanes. Sebastian Aho, Seth Jarvis, and Andrei Svechnikov have all performed at similar levels, and Jaccob Slavin actually has some of the worst defensive metrics among the remaining defensemen, with his 2.86 5v5 xGA/60 being the fourth worst in that group, albeit partially because he’s playing tough minutes with Brent Burns of all defensemen. In fact, the reason he looks good defensively so far is because of the Hurricanes’ goaltending.
After the first two rounds, Andersen was far and away the best player at his position in these playoffs. Jake Oettinger has also looked great, but Andersen’s numbers have been on another level, with a league-leading .937 save percentage and 11.6 5v5 goals saved above expected before the start of the Conference Finals. If you want to really dive into how much better his numbers are, he’s up .18 SV% and 4.09 5v5 GSAx on Oettinger, the next closest goalie.
Some will say that the Hurricanes have the better defense, and on paper they do, but they aren’t that much farther ahead of the Stars in terms of expected goals allowed, sitting at 2.58 5v5 xGA/60 compared to Dallas’ 2.76. Andersen didn’t exactly have the best start to the Eastern Conference Final against the Florida Panthers, but even with that performance, he’s still the best goalie in these playoffs… for now.
4. Leon Draisaitl, Edmonton Oilers
While Draisaitl was the most valuable player for the Oilers in the regular season, he does find himself slightly behind McDavid in the playoffs. But only slightly. With five goals and 16 points, he’s been on a very similar level to McDavid, where he’s been more consistent across each game then having high and low performances. Draisaitl’s lone big performance actually came in a win, where he had a four-point performance topped off with the overtime-winning goal.
To add to that, Draisaitl has actually been slightly better defensively with 1.83 5v5 xGA/60 compared to McDavid’s 1.96, but at this point, it’s like splitting hairs over Patrice Bergeron and Anze Kopitar. Regardless, it’s quite close between both players, and even though the elevated play of the Oilers’ depth forwards has allowed McDavid and Draisaitl to play slightly more human-like, the Conn Smythe will likely come down to one of these two players if they win the Cup. Or, as we saw last year, possibly even if they don’t win.
5. Jake Oettinger, Dallas Stars
If looking calm and composed in net in a series against the best goaltender in the league didn’t make it obvious, Jake Oettinger knows how to thrive in the playoffs. His play in the first round against the Calgary Flames back in 2022 put him on the map, and outside of a hiccup in 2023, he’s been as consistent as the best of them in the postseason. This year has been no exception, with a .919 SV% and a 7.51 5v5 GSAx.
The only thing holding Oettinger back from being higher on the list is the combination of not being a standout at his position (with Andersen putting up even crazier numbers up to this point), and not being a standout on his own team (with similarly excellent performances from Mikko Rantanen and Thomas Harley). But he’s played a big role in the Stars reaching their third straight Western Conference Final, and he will certainly be a top candidate if they win.
6. Evan Bouchard, Edmonton Oilers
It wasn’t exactly the best regular season for Bouchard. After a phenomenal 2023-24 season, he took a step back offensively like almost everyone else on the Oilers, and also found himself on the wrong side of some highlight reels. It’s safe to say that if the Oilers wanted to get back to the Stanley Cup Final and possibly win it all this year, with Mattias Ekholm out of the lineup, they needed Bouchard to return to form. They may have even needed the level he was at in the 2024 playoffs, where he had the third-most points ever by a defenseman in a playoff run.
While Bouchard isn’t quite at that 2024 pace, he has at least elevated his play to what the Oilers needed from him. He currently has four goals and 12 points through 11 games and is the only remaining defenseman scoring at a point-per-game pace. You could also make the case for him being the reason that the Oilers made it out of the first round, as his back-to-back two-goal games in Games 3 and 4 against the Kings kept them alive in that series and started their comeback. On top of that, he’s been much better defensively than normally given credit for, with a 2.08 5v5 xGA/60 that is fourth among remaining defensemen. Maybe he’s made a couple of glaring errors along the way, but it certainly hasn’t cost the Oilers yet.
7. Thomas Harley, Dallas Stars
If there’s one blemish on the Stars’ roster for this playoff run, it’s their blueline. Even when healthy, the depth just isn’t quite there compared to that of the other remaining teams, and for three quarters of their run so far, they’ve been without their top blueliner in Miro Heiskanen. But, Harley has slowly seen his game improve over the last few seasons, and they couldn’t have asked for a better time for him to step up his play even more.
With Heiskanen out, Harley has been thrust into that top defenseman role, and he’s handled it about as well as you could expect from him. He’s already surpassed his previous career-highs with 4 goals and 11 points in 13 games, and while he could be doing better defensively with a 2.8 5v5 xGA/60, it’s been against top competition while leading all remaining defensemen in ice time per game with 26:37. Then again, we shouldn’t be surprised that he’s managed to adapt so quickly after he did the same thing with Team Canada at the 4 Nations Face-Off this year.
8. Aleksander Barkov, Florida Panthers
It says a lot about the depth of the Panthers that they may be the best team remaining in the playoffs, and yet their highest ranked player on this list is eighth. They had several candidates barely missing out on this list, and that played a huge role in their players ranking so low overall. When you could list off five or six players that could be the potential MVP, it’s hard to place them too much higher than this if it’s so up in the air.
So when no one really stands out on the Panthers, especially offensively, you have to look to the other side of the ice to make your pick, and no one does that better than Barkov. While his 2.05 5v5 xGA/60 isn’t the best on the Panthers, he does it against some of the best competition in the league to make that feat even more impressive.
Sam Reinhart is right behind Barkov in that regard, but he has just been a tad bit better. If you also want to consider how voters have traditionally leaned, they’d probably go with the captain and center in such a close situation. However, the race for the Conn Smythe is still wide open for Florida, carrying over from last year which saw none of them win it in favor of McDavid.
9. Andrei Svechnikov, Carolina Hurricanes
The Hurricanes have been in desperate need for finishing talent on their roster for several years now. It’s the biggest talking point surrounding them as they look to finally become a true Stanley Cup contender, and they’ve tried their absolute best to plug that hole. Whether it’s Max Pacioretty, Jake Guentzel or Mikko Rantanen, Carolina has attempted to address the issue, but for one reason or another, it hasn’t worked out.
The other player that they’ve hoped to get more out of from a finishing perspective is Svechnikov. The 2018 second-overall pick has never quite been able to do that in the playoffs, but as the Hurricanes find themselves in the Conference Finals yet again, he’s played a big role in elevating their offense. With 8 goals in 11 games, Svechnikov has already doubled his previous playoff career high in goals, and is second only to Rantanen in goals overall. If Carolina is hoping to finally advance to the Stanley Cup Final, they’re going to need Svechnikov to keep up this play to get there.
10. Brad Marchand, Florida Panthers
Sometimes a Conn Smythe candidate emerges just simply by being a good story, and there have been few as entertaining as what Marchand is doing with the Panthers. He was thought to be a shell of his former self with the Boston Bruins, with only 47 points in 61 games, and many were curious how he would fit with Florida. To the surprise of no one, one of the best pests in the league has fit like a glove with the peskiest team in the league, and that’s reignited him and brought back the Marchand of old.
To be fair, any of Brad Marchand, Anton Lundell and Eetu Luostarinen could have fit in this spot because of how much of a difference maker the third line has been for this Panthers team. They’ve basically been playing like a third top-six line against bottom six competition, and making Florida a nightmare for opposing coaches to match up against. This trio might be one of the biggest factors to the Panthers winning a second straight Cup, and that intertwined with Marchand’s story this season makes him a dark horse candidate for the Conn Smythe if the Panthers do win.
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