2025 NHL Draft Lottery Chaos Rankings: Which winning team would enrage rival fans?
The way things are trending, the 2025 NHL Draft will be a mere appetizer before the Gavin McKenna main course in 2026. But this year’s class is still special. The top names available include dynamic defenseman Matthew Schaefer, scoring machine Michael Misa, well-rounded center James Hagens and power forward Porter Martone. Multiple franchises can secure franchise players this June in Los Angeles.
The NHL Draft Lottery goes down May 5, with 11 teams vying for the top spot and the San Jose Sharks leading the way with 25.5 percent odds for a second consecutive year.
Which potential lottery winner would cause the most chaos? In this case, I define “chaos” as whichever result would cause the biggest uproar among the other 31 fan bases and validate the conspiracy theorists the most.
Here are the 11 potential winners of the No. 1 overall pick, ranked from least to most offensive, with their lottery odds in brackets.
11. Seattle Kraken (7.5%)
As the NHL’s youngest expansion franchise and second-youngest overall behind the relocated Utah Hockey Club, the Kraken wouldn’t offend many by winning the lottery. They haven’t picked first overall yet in their short history, and they’ve only picked in the top three once in four Drafts. They got too good, too fast a couple seasons back, and that motivated them to behave like a contender, spending big on Chandler Stephenson and Brandon Montour in 2024 free agency. Now they’re a team without an identity, older than they should be, not good enough to be a playoff threat and not fortified with enough high-upside players in their farm system. Landing a foundational talent to build around could correct the Kraken’s trajectory and re-establish them as a young team looking to incrementally improve.
10. Nashville Predators (11.5%)
On one hand: after the Preds were 2024 free agency’s most lavish spender only to flop miserably in 2024-25, they probably don’t invite much sympathy league wide. General manager Barry Trotz miscalculated his team’s trajectory when he inked Steven Stamkos, Jonathan Marchessault and Brady Skjei. On the other hand: in 27 Drafts, the Predators have never picked first overall, and their only top-three selection came in 1998 when they took David Legwand at No. 2 with their first pick in franchise history. The average fan likes Nashville just fine, the market and its fans are fun, and the Preds clearly haven’t been spoiled with their Draft luck in the past, so they’d ruffle few feathers by winning the lottery.
9. New York Islanders (3.5%)
The Islanders ranking this low might surprise some. Holding plenty of long-standing rivalries and having Lou Lamoriello maddeningly ensnare them in mediocrity for so many seasons, they aren’t swimming in likability as a franchise. But this team has a rich history as one of the first post-expansion clubs more than a half century ago and boasts a loyal group of fans. The Mike Milbury era Isles picked at the top of the Draft a lot, but this incarnation of the franchise hasn’t selected inside the top 10 in more than a decade. The Long Island hockey market is still a good one when the team is competitive and building a sustainable winner, and it feels like this club has suffered long enough to deserve a lottery win.
8. Anaheim Ducks (6.0%)
The Ducks own the league’s third-longest active playoff drought at seven seasons. They play in one of the league’s most obscure markets. They simply don’t inspire strong feelings from rival fan bases who aren’t located in California. They therefore wouldn’t cause league-wide uproar in winning the lottery. That said, they may induce an eye roll here and there at their inability to make a major standings climb after picking high in the Draft quite often over the past decade. They’ve selected in the top 10 in six consecutive Drafts, and that includes three top-three picks in the past four years in Mason McTavish, Leo Carlsson and Beckett Sennecke. So while they’ve never picked first overall, there aren’t many tiny violins playing in support of them.
7. Buffalo Sabres (6.5%)
The Sabres’ 14-season playoff drought is longest in NHL history. Their fan base deserves so much better than this. There’s a contingent of fans who feel sorry for Buffalo and want to see them become relevant again after so much suffering. But there’s also the jaded counterpoint that they’ve had a million chances and shouldn’t be given another top pick to squander. Since their last playoff season, 2010-11, Buffalo has picked first overall twice (Rasmus Dahlin, Owen Power) and second overall twice (Jack Eichel, Sam Reinhart). If they win the lottery, the reaction could be polarizing between “Good for them!” and “Not again!”
6. Philadelphia Flyers (9.5%)
From a novelty standpoint, the Flyers would be an underrated landing spot for the No. 1 overall pick. They’ve never picked first overall in the Entry Draft era and picked No. 1 just once in the Amateur Draft era – in 1975. Their only top-two pick in the past decade was cursed, as poor Nolan Patrick’s health never cooperated. The Flyers are rebuilding methodically and patiently under GM Danny Briere to boot. A first-overall pick would actually feel earned. But I place them in the middle of the pack because, c’mon, it’s the Flyers. They inspire strong feelings in their many Metropolitan Division rivals. Approximately a quarter of fan bases league wide would be incensed to see a Philly lottery win. Hey, it’s a compliment.
5. San Jose Sharks (25.5%)
I ranked the Sharks as the least offensive winner in this exercise a year ago. Like Anaheim, San Jose doesn’t inspire strong reactions league-wide as a perfectly benign market. But the Sharks make a huge jump in the 2025 Chaos Rankings because they won the lottery last year and landed Macklin Celebrini with the top pick. Pretty much no fan base other than the winning one likes to see the same team take the lottery in consecutive seasons. At least if San Jose does it, though, it won’t be eligible to win it a third straight year.
4. Pittsburgh Penguins (5.0%)
I actually think it would be exciting to see Pittsburgh land an elite prospect and watch him apprentice under Sidney Crosby. The Pens have also missed the playoffs three years running and haven’t won a playoff round since 2018, so their fans haven’t had too much fun for the past seven years. But they still have three Stanley Cup wins in the past 15 years and seemingly get to draft a generational talent every two decades, so a lottery win, especially with low odds of five percent, would anger some fan bases. If we believe in the Pittsburgh Generational Talent Prophecy, however: it’s happening next year, right? McKenna to the Pens.
3. Chicago Blackhawks (13.5%)
The Hawks got top billing on this list last season and still sit near the top for obvious reasons. They secured Connor Bedard first overall in 2023, so they’re spoiled for superstar talent, and plenty of fans are in no rush to see the franchise succeed given the off-ice transgressions of its previous regime. The Blackhawks fall out of the top Chaos Ranking because Bedard himself is easy to root for and it would be entertaining to see him alongside another top-tier talent.
2. New York Rangers (3.0%)
Imagine if the Blueshirts win the Draft Lottery just a year removed from securing the Presidents’ Trophy? After picking first overall in 2020 and second overall in 2019 to boot? The tinfoil hat brigade would scrutinize the ping pong balls with gusto and wonder if NHL commissioner Gary Bettman, a New York native, was the puppet master. The Rangers also still have enough high-end veteran talent on their roster that an elite prospect could help reopen their contention window, albeit they’ve struggled badly to develop their blue-chippers in recent years, with Kaapo Kakko getting shipped out of town this season.
1. Boston Bruins (8.5%)
Stanley Cup champs in 2011. Stanley Cup finalists in 2013 and 2019. An NHL single-season wins record just two years ago. A city that has won 13 titles across the big four North American sports this century. The Big, Bad Bruins have made the playoffs in 49 of their past 57 seasons and hadn’t missed since 2015-16 before bowing out this spring. They could not inspire less compassion from their haters. Pretty much any non-Bruins fan will need a barf bag ready if these guys take home the top overall pick in June.
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