Five RFAs with plenty to gain during 2025 Stanley Cup playoffs

Apr 29, 2025, 09:00 EDT

Edmonton Oilers defenseman Evan Bouchard

Credit: Apr 25, 2025; Edmonton, Alberta, CAN; Edmonton Oilers defensemen Evan Bouchard (2) celebrates after scoring a goal against the Los Angelos Kings in game three of the first round of the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Rogers Place. Mandatory Credit: Perry Nelson-Imagn Images

Last week, I broke down which unrestricted free agents had the most to prove during the 2025 Stanley Cup playoffs. Today, we shift gears to the restricted free agents. They have less at stake in the sense that they remain under team control, but how they perform this postseason can significantly impact their contracts for 2025-26 and beyond in AAV and/or term.

So which prominent RFAs might see significant changes on their next deals depending on how the postseason plays out?

Evan Bouchard, Edmonton Oilers

It’s difficult to remember the last time a top-end player was this polarizing in his market. Bouchard is unbelievably productive. Last season, he set a single-season playoff record for a defenseman with 26 assists. He’s currently tied for the league lead in goals this postseason with four and has seven points in total. Only Bobby Orr averages more points per game among blueliners in NHL playoff history. Bouchard’s regular-season scoring also rates among the best at his position every year and, when Mattias Ekholm is healthy, the two form one of the NHL’s best all-around pairs. Yes, haters, that includes on the defensive side of the puck.

On the other hand: Bouchard’s blunders tend to be of the highlight-reel variety and often incense the Oiler fan base. His pairing with Darnell Nurse has been outscored 5-2 at 5-on-5 through four games against the Los Angeles Kings in Round 1, with an on-ice scoring chance percentage of 47.73. That pair’s struggles defensively have validated anyone who believes Ekholm was doing the heavier defensive lifting before getting hurt.

So what type of contract will Bouchard earn after this season? Jakob Chychrun’s eight-year deal at a $9 million AAV set the floor, but how high will the ceiling climb? Count me as one of the people who believes Bouchard brings far more good than bad and easily deserves $10 million or more, but Edmonton may need to get out of the first round, with Bouchard and Nurse avoiding any more high-profile mistakes, if Bouchard wants to get locked in long-term at number that big. The Oilers also have to squirrel away serious coin for Connor McDavid’s next contract, which will commence in 2026-27 and should make him at minimum the league’s first $15 million player.

Matthew Knies, Toronto Maple Leafs

A year ago, inking Knies, a promising, smooth-handed power forward, to a long-term pact would’ve included a bit of projection. Knies erased any need for that with a breakout 29-goal season in which he established himself as a unicorn in the vein of Tom Wilson and Brady Tkachuk, a bruising big man who plays on a skill line and creates matchup nightmares. So far in the postseason, the Senators have had few answers for Knies’ net-front dominance. It’s abundantly clear he deserves a lucrative long-term deal now, but how much higher will that AAV rise if the Leafs manage a deep run with Knies playing a crucial role? Could $7 million turn to $8 million or even north of that on his next AAV? The floor of his next contract is already high, but there’s room to inflate that ceiling depending on how long Toronto’s run lasts.

Alex Laferriere, Los Angeles Kings

Laferriere was a nice find for the Kings at 83^rd overall in the 2020 Draft. He brings a scrappiness to a top-six role and is one of the league’s better generators; he ranked seventh among all NHL forwards in individual scoring chances per 60 at 5-on-5 this season. Laferriere isn’t a pure finisher, however, as his career shooting percentage of 9.1 attests. The Kings could thus go a few different routes on his next contract. Do they stay cautious with someone whose game is more about hustle than true skill? That could mean a bridge deal, but it could also mean a long-term pact that keeps his AAV down. He’s been quiet on the scoresheet playing on L.A.’s second line this postseason, with no goals and one assist through four games, and he’s averaging about two fewer shots on goal per 60 minutes than during the regular season. It doesn’t feel like he’s hurt his value, but he hasn’t popped off in way that could inflate his next contract so far. That could change if L.A. gets by Edmonton and enjoys a deep run.

Marco Rossi, Minnesota Wild

What a strange year it’s been for Rossi. On one hand: he improved on his promising rookie year, posting 24 goals and 60 points while spending much of the season as Minnesota’s first-line center. On the other: Rossi is currently demoted to the fourth line and playing just 10:53 a game this postseason. Go figure: he’s still scored in consecutive games playing that diminished role. How will GM Bill Guerin value him when trying to hammer out his next contract? Per The Athletic’s Michael Russo, the Wild offered Rossi a five-year extension at a $5 million AAV this past winter, which was rejected. If coach John Hynes is parking him on the fourth line now, it’s difficult to envision that offer increasing. And if Rossi’s camp didn’t like the first one, we could be headed for an offseason impasse. Unless, of course, Rossi can fight his way back up the depth chart and deliver some heroic moments before the Wild’s postseason ends.

Gabe Vilardi, Winnipeg Jets

Vilardi’s post-hype breakout has been fun to watch. After never living up to his Draft pedigree as an L.A. King, he’s become one of the league’s most accurate shooters and a real power-play weapon as a Jet, albeit with consistent durability concerns. At this point, he’s clearly part of Winnipeg’s short- and medium-term future. The question is whether GM Kevin Cheveldayoff will commit to Vilardi as a long-term core member. He’s still just 25, but is he built to age as well as your typical 25-year-old given the injuries he’s had to work through in his career so far? Something in the range of four years would feel like a sensible hedge. But if the Presidents’ Trophy winning Jets go all the way, with Vilardi playing a crucial part, could he score himself an extra year or two at an AAV of $6-7 million? For now, the Jets have to worry about getting by St. Louis, and Vilardi appears finally ready to join the fight, expected to make his 2025 playoff debut for Game 5.

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