4 Nations Face-Off betting preview: Canada vs. Finland predictions

Canada will look to rebound from its 3-1 loss versus the United States on Monday afternoon when it takes on Finland in a do-or-die matchup at the 4 Nations Face-Off.

Both teams enter this matchup with two points in Round Robin play so far, which means a regulation win for either side would guarantee it a spot in the final Thursday in Boston. An overtime win for either side would mean Sweden could sneak into the final if it were to beat the USA in regulation Monday evening.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes and outline my favorite betting angles below.

Canada vs Finland Odds

• Canada Moneyline Odds: -400
• Finland Moneyline Odds: +320
• Puck Line Odds: Canada -1.5 (-155), Finland +1.5 (+130)
• Game Total: 6.5 goals (over +115, under -135)
  Above odds courtesy of bet365.

Handicapping Team Canada

While losing to their biggest rival in one of the most highly anticipated games in recent memory will hurt for every member of the Canadian roster, it was a well-contested matchup from both sides that could have gone either way.

The U.S. was expected to have a significant goaltending edge over Canada entering the tournament, and it’s fair to say that American goaltender Connor Hellebuyck outplaying his counterpart Jordan Binnington was the difference in Saturday’s matchup.

Canada outshot the USA 26-23, and from a statistical perspective, did have more of the high quality chances. Canada generated more shots from the inner slot than the U.S. did, had more high-danger scoring chances, and did finish with more expected goals.

That’s not to take anything away from the USA’s strong defensive play, as the Americans did do a great job of locking the game down once Dylan Larkin provided them with a 2-1 lead late in the second period.

While it’s hard to say a team scoring just one goal should ever win, the Americans easily could have netted just one goal themselves if Binnington had been sharper.

While Jake Guentzel is one of the game’s best finishers, from this angle Binnington has to make that save, even if there is a little pre-shot movement. Based on the average shot from this location of the ice, Guentzel’s shot had a 3% chance of scoring. If Binnington plays it right, there’s nowhere for a shooter to go from this location.

Larkin’s critical go-ahead goal is more debatable from a goaltending perspective, as it is a 2-on-1 and Larkin has several spots to shoot as a lefty coming down the right side. Still, shots from that location go in 5.4% of the time, and it was certainly not an impossible save to make.

It will be interesting to see if Canada does turn to Adin Hill in this matchup, as at the time of writing a starter has not been named. Hill has been the better goaltender at the NHL level this season, and it seems unfair to say that Binnington has played well enough to earn a stranglehold on the Canadian crease.

Hill holds +8.8 GSAx and .900 save percentage in 34 games played with the Vegas Golden Knights this year. Like Binnington, he has a Stanley Cup ring of his own, and was excellent during the Knights’ 2022-23 championship run.

The Canadian’s were dealt a tough blow as Cale Makar was unable to play due to illness on Saturday, but he’s expected to return to the lineup Monday.

While nobody is ever going to replicate Makar’s play, Thomas Harley was arguably the team’s best defender and did a tremendous job jumping into the lineup in a tough spot. Harley certainly played well enough to earn a spot in Monday’s game if he was eligible. However, he is ineligible to play unless Makar or another Canadian defender ends up being unfit to compete.

While the U.S. penalty kill did an excellent job, it was certainly aided from Makar’s absence from the top unit, a role which was overtaken by Josh Morrissey. Morrissey is a quality offensive player in his own right and does quarterback the Winnipeg Jets’ top-rated power play, however, Team Canada’s top unit works better with a righty at the top and there is obviously still a gap in offensive upside between Makar and Morrissey.

Head coach Jon Cooper shuffled his forward units in the third period, and it will be interesting to see if he commits to some different lines ahead of this matchup.

Sam Reinhart is an excellent defensive player with an incredible scoring touch, and certainly has earned the right to start on the top line alongside Connor McDavid and Mitch Marner. However, Reinhart has had a quiet start to the tournament, and it might be time for Cooper to shake up his top-six.

Brayden Point had some good moments in Saturday’s game and did get a chance to play alongside McDavid for a brief period. Moving him further up the lineup could be one option to try and kickstart the top unit, as he is a fantastic player in his own right that has been incredible in the playoffs historically.

Handicapping Team Finland

Whether the Finns are able to pull off a win as gigantic underdogs in this matchup or not, they will certainly have one fond memory to take home from this tournament in besting their biggest rival, Sweden, on Saturday afternoon.

Finland has continually proven to be a tough out in international play, but even still it was hard to believe its lack of talent on the back end would allow the Finns to find much success in this tournament. They showed strong resolve in Saturday’s win, and a number of their elite forwards had much more notable performances than we saw in their blowout loss versus the Americans on Thursday.

Finland certainly didn’t steal an underserved victory Saturday either, as it led 2.35 to 2.01 on expected goals and was outshot by a small margin of 24-21. Those numbers agree with the ‘eye-test’, as it was a well-contested game that could have gone either way.

Finland’s defensive core did a much better job of breaking up plays in transition versus Sweden, and did a fairly good job of preventing legitimate scoring chances. The Finns were well-supported by the forward group, which did a solid job of keeping their third forward (F3) above the play in the offensive zone and tracking back to avoid odd-man rushes.

While the team likely has found some rhythm after an ugly opening matchup, its defensive core will get a much tougher test versus a Canadian side offering a number of the game’s most dangerous players in transition. Look for Finland to try and keep things as battened down as possible, and try to prevent quick transitions which put its suspect defensive core into tough spots.

Any potential changes to Finland’s lineup have also not been confirmed at the time of writing, but it seems likely that head coach Antti Pennanen will keep the same units intact after a solid showing versus Sweden.

The team’s new-look second line of Roope Hintz, Sebastian Aho, and Mikael Granlund had a strong showing versus Finland, and was arguably the best unit from either side. Patrik Laine put together a much better game playing on the third unit, but the second line also clearly benefitted from Granlund overtaking Laine’s spot.

Hintz has earned a reputation of being a ‘gamer’ with his excellent play at both ends of the ice in the NHL playoffs, and he will be a player to watch in this matchup after a strong performance.

Mikko Rantanen still did not look overly dominant in even-strength play skating alongside captain Aleksander Barkov, but did break through with an important power-play marker. For Finland to have a chance as heavy underdogs in this matchup it will likely need a better showing from its top unit which features arguably its two best players.

Kevin Lankinen stopped 21 of 24 shots faced, and finished with a -0.99 GSAx rating. By no means was he bad, and it seems safe to assume that he will get the start once again on Monday. He holds a +1.6 GSAx rating and .905 save percentage in 34 games played with the Vancouver Canucks this season.

Best bet for Canada vs Finland

Finland certainly proved some doubters, like myself, wrong with its spirited win Saturday afternoon. Its defense core did a much better than expected job of preventing high-danger chances, and the Finns managed the puck well to limit odd-man rushes.

Canada’s offense is still significantly more explosive on paper than Sweden’s, though, and will provide a difficult test to a relatively unproven defensive core. Finland will likely try to make this game into a rock fight, and it’s possible we see another fairly low-event game.

While the Finns may have a tough time keeping Canada in check, I also think in a do-or-die spot we will see the Canadians do an excellent job of preventing Finland from generating many high-quality looks.

As I speculated in Saturday’s piece, betting Canada when lines for this matchup first opened would have been a good strategy. At open, the puck line was set at -135, and now it has moved all the way to -155. It would still be a decent play in my books at that price, but the number is probably about breakeven at this point.

One option on the board that I do like is parlaying the game to go under 7.5 goals and Canada to win in regulation at -120 (bet365).

It does seem safe to think Canada finds a way to win this game in regulation and book a spot in the final, but I’m not sure it will be with a massive offensive performance. A somewhat low-scoring Canadian win is what I’m expecting, and at -120, we are getting a good price to target that idea.

Best Bet: Canada to Win in Regulation/Under 7.5 Goals Parlay: -120 (bet365)