Five trade destinations to watch for Islanders’ Brock Nelson

Credit: Dec 3, 2024; Montreal, Quebec, CAN; New York Islanders center Brock Nelson (29) looks on during warm-up before the game against the Montreal Canadiens at Bell Centre. Mandatory Credit: David Kirouac-Imagn Images

With less two months until the 2025 NHL Trade Deadline March 7, we’re delivering at least one deadline-focused story every day at Daily Faceoff.

Today, we explore the best fits for New York Islanders center and pending UFA Brock Nelson, arguably the top rental forward available and currently sitting at No. 1 on Frank Seravalli’s Trade Targets board.

2025 NHL Trade Deadline countdown: 51 days

Was Lou Lamoriello bluffing or horribly misguided when he quadrupled down on staying the course with his team last week? If you’re an Islanders fan, you have to hope it’s the former. The franchise has been mired in the muck of mediocrity since it walked away from coach Barry Trotz in 2022. The Isles have finished with between 84 and 94 points in three consecutive seasons, earning a Happy to Be Here badge the previous two, predictably bounced in the first round both times. Their .477 points percentage this season would be their lowest since 2010-11 if it holds. Lamoriello stubbornly refuses to acknowledge it’s time to sell and admit failure, but if the Isles remain out of the Eastern Conference Wildcard picture by late February to early March, he’ll have to accept a seller’s posture.

Which brings us to Mr. Nelson. The market for centers, particularly of the rental variety, is incredibly thin this year. Nelson is thus a lock to command a big return despite the fact he’s pacing for his weakest offensive numbers in several years after three consecutive 30-goal seasons. He’s a versatile scoring center, quietly 26^th among all NHLers in goals over the past four seasons. He plays on both special teams. He’s winning 54.1 percent of his faceofs this year, and he carries a 5-on-5 on-ice expected goal share of 52.56 percent. Given he’s a rental and the Isles haven’t used any of their salary retention spots, his $6 million cap hit isn’t overly cumbersome to acquire.

Even at 33 years old, then, Nelson will attract a lot of interest among contenders seeking middle-six center help. Who might be the ideal fit? Consider these five destinations.

Colorado Avalanche

Why he makes sense: As reported by my colleague Seravalli, the Avs are in the market for a middle-six pivot. Even though they stepped up and added Casey Mittelstadt at the deadline last year, they’ve been chasing it at that position since losing their No. 2 and No. 3 centers from the 2022 Stanley Cup team, Nazem Kadri and J.T. Compher, in consecutive offseasons. The Avs are one of the more aggressive trading teams in the league; GM Chris MacFarland understands his team sits squarely in its win-now window, riding the prime years of Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar and pending UFA Mikko Rantanen. As great as it would be to see captain Gabriel Landeskog return to game action after almost three years, he’s still not close, and it’s likely Colorado can use his $7 million in LTIR money on a rental like Nelson.

Fly in the ointment: If we envision a scenario where the Isles punt on Nelson, we’re assuming Lamoriello has seen the light and accepted a rebuild or at least a retool, meaning he’d prioritize getting picks and prospects in a trade, and the Avs’ assets wouldn’t make them the big stack at the poker table. They already traded their 2025 first-round pick (top-10 protected, which won’t come into play) in the Sean Walker deal last year. They also have one of the NHL’s weaker prospect pools, ranked 27^th by DFO prospect analyst Steven Ellis. Factoring in that they obviously wouldn’t dangle top prospect Cal Ritchie here, they don’t have a particularly deep crop to draw from in trade offers.

Dallas Stars

Why he makes sense: Tyler Seguin’s December hip surgery carried a four-to-six-month recovery timeline, meaning he’d be hard-pressed to return before the playoffs even in a best-case scenario. It’s only a matter of time before Dallas slides his $9.5 million cap hit on LTIR. Not only will the Stars be better positioned than normal to pursue aggressive acquisitions at the deadline, but it would make sense to directly replace Seguin’s production with a versatile middle-six center. Enter Nelson. Dallas would theoretically have the right assets to fetch him, too, holding all their upcoming first-round picks and boasting some enviable prospects. If the Stars decide they need to take a serious shot, would they be willing to move Mavrik Bourque for the right deal? Tough call. It would be risky to surrender him for a rental.

Fly in the ointment: Dallas needs more than a center. Its top priority is to add a top-four, right-shot blueliner. If they use the Seguin LTIR money, they could possibly afford a D-man and Nelson, but they might not have the assets to land both. If, for instance, GM Jim Nill took a run at Rasmus Ristolainen, he’d have to use up a first-rounder. Also: Nill isn’t a particularly adventurous deadline dealer. He paid up for Chris Tanev last year but didn’t give up a first-rounder in the process. Would Nelson’s acquisition cost prove too extravagant for Nill’s taste?

Minnesota Wild

Why he makes sense: Where to begin? Let’s start with the 4 Nations Face-Off roster announcements. How much does team USA GM Bill Guerin like Nelson? Guerin picked him – during a down year – over the likes of Tage Thompson, Jason Robertson and Cole Caufield. Guerin is clearly a big believer in Nelson’s ability to play in all situations and provide veteran leadership. Guerin also happens to be GM of the Wild and happens to be in the market for a center. As Seravalli reports, their ideal target is a non rental, someone to help them compete for multiple seasons and serve as insurance in case they don’t re-sign pending RFA Marco Rossi, but that criterion doesn’t necessarily exclude Nelson. He’s a Minnesota native and in theory could be enticed to sign an extension post-trade. The Wild have a deep prospect pool with plenty of options for the Isles to choose from, too.

Fly in the ointment: The Wild don’t have a 2025 first-rounder to offer, having used theirs in the David Jiricek trade earlier this season, so they’d have to hope that’s not a sticking point in a Nelson deal. Also: they’re capped out at the moment, so they’d need some help to facilitate this deal, whether it’s the Isles retaining, a third-party broker or sending another chunky contract New York’s way.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Why he makes sense: It’s no secret the Leafs want to augment their third line and boost their depth scoring. They’ve quietly sunk to below-average as a playdriving team in their first season under Craig Berube, and they sit a modest 13^th in goals per game. Sure, that’s partially reflective of Auston Matthews missing time, but that only reinforces the need for more help; Toronto needs a third-line center but ideally one who can slide up to second-line duty if and when Matthews needs to miss additional games managing his unknown upper-body injury. Nelson fits that description, whereas other candidates such as Yanni Gourde and Scott Laughton would be more traditional, lower-ceiling third-liners on a team like Toronto. If the Leafs decide it’s an all-in year given Mitch Marner’s pending UFA status, chasing Nelson is justifiable.

Fly in the ointment: Can Toronto afford the acquisition cost? They have very few enticing prospects to dangle for a high-end rental considering Easton Cowan and Fraser Minten wouldn’t be in play. Their 2025 first-rounder belongs to the Chicago Blackhawks, surrendered by previous GM Kyle Dubas in the Jake McCabe trade two years ago. Even when factoring in the Leafs’ LTIR wiggle room, which is $3.57 million with Calle Jarnkrok and Jani Hakanpaa out, the money would be tight if they brought in a big-ticket player like Nelson, similar to Minnesota’s situation requiring some help on the Isles’ end. It’s also worth noting Brad Treliving has a pretty conservative history at the deadline, refusing to make trades for the sake of trades and typically adding complementary pieces for lower down his lineup.

Winnipeg Jets

Why he makes sense: For the second consecutive season, the Jets have shocked many prognosticators by icing one of the league’s most dominant teams. Last year, GM Kevin Cheveldayoff landed Sean Monahan and Tyler Toffoli leading up to the deadline. Both walked as UFAs, and the assumption here was that Cheveldayoff would have to play things safer this time around, but that may not be the case. If a first-round pick is the centerpiece of a Nelson deal: the Jets have theirs for the next three drafts. They also have the horses in terms of prospect capital should the Isles want one as part of a deal; maybe you’re not offering up one of your true top guys, but a post-hype prospect like Chaz Lucius might make sense as a reclamation project, for instance.

Fly in the ointment: I’m only the messenger here: but Winnipeg sometimes has trouble wooing players, and that doesn’t only apply to free agency. Whenever we’ve seen reports on which markets appear on most players’ no-trade lists over the past decade, Winnipeg typically ranks at or near the top of those lists. Nelson has a 16-team no-trade clause. Given that’s half the league, and understanding the Jets’ reputation, the odds are pretty high they appear on that list. One can only hope “half the league” essentially just means teams out of playoff contention and that the chance to win a Cup would compel Nelson to accept a trade to Winnipeg.

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