Load management could be key to Auston Matthews peaking at right time for Leafs

Toronto Maple Leafs center Auston Matthews

Credit: Jan 4, 2025; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Maple Leafs forward Auston Matthews (34) carries the puck against the Boston Bruins during the first period at Scotiabank Arena. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images

Who knows if Auston Matthews could’ve made the play even a few days ago.

His Toronto Maple Leafs were protecting a 5-4 read late in the third period of a back-and-forth war with their division rival Boston Bruins Saturday night at Scotiabank Arena, and the foot race was on against fellow superstar and frequent Leaf heartbreaker David Pastrnak. Matthews turned on his jets, gained a step on ‘Pasta,’ Supermanned to the ice and and poked in one of the higher-effort empty net goals of the 2024-25 NHL season.

It certainly looked like maximum effort from a player who last suited up Dec. 20 as he nursed an upper-body injury, missing a notable chunk of games for the second time this season due to the same ailment. And it had to feel like a relief with Leafs Nation holding its breath over how many more games he’d have to miss.

“I felt good, I thought,” Matthews said Saturday after the win. “My linemates made it pretty easy for me tonight too. But I just thought, the chemistry was there, I thought we were working all three zones pretty good and finding each other in good spots, so I’m pretty happy with it.”

The linemates helped indeed. Flanking their captain, Matthew Knies and Mitch Marner posted five points apiece Saturday, with Knies recording his first career hat trick in the game of his life. But Matthews was no passenger. He was seemingly everywhere, facilitating Knies’ monster night with a perfect shot-pass that Knies deflected on his first goal and a feathery feed from behind Boston’s net to set up Knies’ third – after Matthews laid a hit on Bruins defenseman Charlie McAvoy. Matthews had a goal, two assists and five shots and won 57.1 percent of his faceoffs. Only Knies had more individual shot attempts among the Leafs.

“[He] was great – moving very well, won a lot of big draws, using his body out there very well and just doing awesome things, couple great pickpockets to find guys late,” Marner said. “It’s good to have 34.”

“It’s pretty nice getting 34 back up the middle and his normal self out there,” said defenseman Jake McCabe. “Heavy on pucks, making plays happen, responsible defensively.”

Matthews’ layoff lasted six games and two weeks. Based on his performance Saturday, the time off was clearly worth it. He looked close to the peak version of Matthews Toronto hasn’t consistently seen since last year. The term peak is important in this context, because he has been his superstar self in many ways this season. Per Natural Stat Trick, Looking at his 5-on-5 individual playdriving metrics, he’s actually tracking for career highs or close to it in many areas:

Season	G/60	S/60	ixG/60	iCF/60	iSCF/60	iHDCF/ 60	Rebs. Created /60	S%
2016-17	1.55	11.22	1.19	18.24	12.4	5.69	0.98	13.82
2017-18	1.68	9.11	0.98	15.57	12.14	4.52	0.71	18.44
2018-19	1.35	10.29	1.09	18.88	13.17	5.06	1.12	13.14
2019-20	1.56	10.37	0.93	18.19	11.88	4.59	1.25	15.08
2020-21	1.94	11.01	1.2	17.45	13.85	6.79	1.18	17.61
2021-22	1.94	12.46	1.26	21.54	15.67	5.92	1.38	15.57
2022-23	1.36	12.2	1.34	20.89	14.87	6.49	1.99	11.16
2023-24	1.84	11.94	1.29	22.67	14.6	6.62	1.89	15.38
2024-5	0.86	11.76	1.41	23.17	15.56	6.74	2.25	7.35

He’s generating the most shot attempts, second-most scoring chances, second-most high-danger chances and most expected goals of his career. So he can’t be that broken, right? But two key stats stand out as career worsts, and they matter the most: shooting percentage and actual goals per 60. That can largely be luck based, of course, but in Matthews’ case, it may also reflect a decay in his finishing ability. Note that he’s also creating the most rebounds of his career. For most players, that’s a positive, but in Matthews’ case it could mean shots that normally beat goalies simply haven’t. Here’s where the eye test can come in handy complementing the analytics: ask yourself if you think his laser of a wrist shot has looked as dangerous this season. Attach that observation to what he’s said about himself lately, implying he’ll have to labor through his injury all year long.

Which begs the question: given how close he looked to his old self Saturday after a break, is it worth it for the Leafs to continue handling Matthews carefully and look into load management for the balance of 2024-25?

It depends on so many factors. We still don’t know exactly what his upper-body injury is and thus don’t know what the timeline to fully heal the malady is. We also can’t predict the Leafs’ journey in the standings over the dog days of winter. For now, they’re tracking toward a comfortable high playoff seed, but a slump could change that, and they’re also determined to earn home ice in Round 1 of the playoffs after dropping a Game 7 on the road last season. That might require playing Matthews as much as possible even if he’s at something like 80 percent. Of course, things could change if GM Brad Treliving ponies up with a major acquisition up the middle, not just a potential third-line option like the rumored Jonathan Toews signing but someone with upside to play a more significant role, such as New York Islanders center Brock Nelson. If a bona fide scoring-line center joined the lineup, it could buy Matthews some extremely valuable time and allow for additional load management.

What would that load management look like for Matthews, exactly? To make it work, the Leafs have to walk the line between keeping him fresh and keeping him in a rhythm. Reasoning behind the former is straightforward, but we can’t underestimate the latter’s importance. The offensive side of Matthews’ game is all about precision, touch and timing. He’s the most unstoppable goal scorer on Earth when he’s on one of his patented heaters, but he’s not immune to slumps. Is there a way to have him peaking at the right time?

“Well, we definitely have to manage him and get him to a point where he’s fully healthy,” said Leafs coach Craig Berube. “Whether that’s rest or a little bit of time off, I don’t know. I don’t have the answer for it right now, but we’re obviously going to stay in tune with it and try to do what’s best for him.”

We’ve seen plenty of teams succeed by mothballing their stars on LTIR and bringing them back for Game 1 of the Stanley Cup playoffs, most notably the Tampa Bay Lightning with Nikita Kucherov and the Vegas Golden Knights with Mark Stone, but given Matthews’ specific sniping skill set, he might need a decent number of in-game puck touches later in the regular season in order to open the playoffs feeling like himself.

So how can the Leafs pull that off? Perhaps the best recent example of a team executing the idea is the Pittsburgh Penguins with Evgeni Malkin. During their Stanley Cup years in 2015-16 and 2016-17, he racked up 46 points in 48 postseason games. But he missed 25 and 20 games, respectively, in the regular season. That included sitting for the final 15 games of 2015-16, plus the first game of the playoffs, with an upper-body injury and the final 13 games of 2016-17 with a shoulder ailment. In both cases he entered the playoffs fresh – but also without having missed an eternity’s worth of games, either, playing deep into March in each season. He feels like a potential model for Toronto to follow with Matthews.

No two injury predicaments are the same, of course. But in Matthews’ case, it doesn’t sound like he’ll be able to completely recover from the injury during the season – and he’s been markedly fresher after each of his injury layoffs, the first of which lasted nine games. It can’t be about Rocket Richard Trophies and first-team All-Star nods this season. All that matters is the playoffs. The Leafs need their captain at his best come April. So the bubble-wrap method just might work.

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Load management could be key to Auston Matthews peaking at right time for Leafs

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