2020 Projected Lineups: New York Islanders

Brock Seguin
Brock Seguin(@Brock_Seguin)
Dec 30, 2020, 13:14 EST
2020 Projected Lineups: New York Islanders

The @New York Islanders have found something in head coach Barry Trotz.

Since hiring Trotz prior to the 2019 season, the Islanders are 83-50-17 (.610 P%), which is the seventh-best record in the NHL. They’ve had some postseason success as well, making it to the Eastern Conference Finals in 2020 and the Second Round in 2019.

The Islanders rank third in the NHL in Goals Against (2.54) but 24th in Goals For (2.75). They are a prototypical Trotz team, focusing on limiting quality chances against and getting goaltending.

With very little cap-space and RFA @Mathew Barzal in need of a new deal, the Islanders had a quiet offseason and return most of last year’s roster. As it stands today (Dec.29) the Islanders have $3.012M in cap-space (per PuckPedia) but will gain $6.0M when they add @Johnny Boychuk to LTIR at the start of the season, opening up more than enough room to sign Barzal.

Projected Forward Lines

The Islanders’ top-line is unquestionably Barzal with @Anders Lee and @Jordan Eberle on his wings. They spent 532.1 5v5 TOI together last season, the seventh most ice-time of any trio in the NHL. They weren’t that outstanding during the 2020 regular season though. Of the 31 lines with at least 300 5v5 TOI, they were 23rd in GF/60 (2.59), 22nd in GA/60 (2.93) for a 46.9 GF%, which was 27th-best.

Still, Barzal is one of the best players in the NHL with the puck on his stick and both Lee and Eberle have proven to be reliable 20-plus goal scorers. In the postseason they generated loads of chances but had a tough time finishing. If they continue to carry a 53.2 CF% and 34.4 SCF/60 into the 2021 regular season, this could be one of the better lines in hockey. 2020 was a down year in terms of SH% for both Lee and Eberle, so there’s a lot of bounce-back potential with NYI1.

Their second line should look familiar as well. They played over 430 5v5 TOI together in the regular season and playoffs combined and they picked up a lot of the offensive load during the postseason run. Their underlying numbers aren’t as tantalizing as the top line’s but they were much more efficient, but nothing to the point where you would expect major regression. @Anthony Beauvillier in particular looked like a different player in the postseason and has huge breakout potential in 2021. With their metrics improving substantially in the postseason, the line of Beauviller, @Brock Nelson and @Josh Bailey has the potential to be one of the better second lines in hockey this season.

While the top-6 is cemented in place, the Isles’ bottom-6 is a bit more in question. @Jean-Gabriel Pageau and @Casey Cizikas will be the third and fourth line centres but who skates on the wings is less clear. @Derick Brassard and @Matt Martin have not re-signed with the Islanders (as of today), so that opens up two spots. One of those spots figures to be filled by 2018 No.11 overall pick @Oliver Wahlstrom. He played nine games with the Islanders last season but should be ready for a full-time gig in 2021. @Michael Dal Colle, another former first-rounder brings tremendous size to the bottom-6 and if he plays with Pageau and Wahlstrom, there’s certainly potential there. With that said, his outstanding numbers in the OHL and AHL have yet to translate to the NHL. He’s just 85 games into his career, so maybe 2021 is the year the 2014 No.5 pick starts to figure it out.

If the two younger, more offensive wingers skate with Pageau that would leave grizzled veterans @Andrew Ladd and @Cal Clutterbuck to play with Cizikas. Martin-Cizikas-Clutterbuck continued to be one of the better fourth-lines in hockey last year and Ladd could bring a little more offence in replacing Martin.

The Islanders also acquired the rights to @Dmytro Timashov from Detroit and he could make a case for a bottom-6 role if they sign the RFA to an extension.

Projected Defensive Pairings

@Adam Pelech and @Ryan Pulock emerged a reliable top-pair for the Islanders last season and even more, the pressure will be on them this year after trading @Devon Toews to the Avalanche. They pair together nicely, considering they both are over 6-foot and 215 lbs. and Pelech plays a more rugged, reliable defensive game while Pulock has a massive point-shot and more offensively gifted. With Toews gone and @Nick Leddy almost 30-years-old, the Pelech-Pulock pairing could log career-high minutes again in 2021.

Leddy bounced around to a few different partners in 2020 but should land with@Scott Mayfield in 2021. Mayfield was the primary partner of Toews last year and they were fantastic together, posting a 57.8 GF% and a 1.57 GA/60, which was fourth-best in the NHL. Leddy should have no issue filling that role though, he and Toews play very similar styles, relying on their outstanding mobility to put themselves in the right spots. In brief time together last year, it didn’t go very well (3.14 GA/60) but they were much better in 2019 (1.76), so they should settle in as a really sturdy second-pair.

With @Johnny Boychuk retired and @Andy Greene still a free agent, @Thomas Hickey could make a return to the NHL to start the season, but Sebastian Aho will likely take that spot. Aho has had three really good years in the AHL and seems destined for the NHL at some point in 2021. @Noah Dobson was seldom used in the playoffs but should be in-line for a full-time gig on the thinned out blueline. Dobson is a future top-pairing defenseman but he’ll likely continue to play sheltered minutes this season.

Advanced Stats via MoneyPuck.com and HockeyReference.com 

Salary Cap Figures via PuckPedia.com 

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