Analysis: Matt Murray and Ilya Samsonov’s first starts as Maple Leafs

The Toronto Maple Leafs are two games into the 2022-23 season and people are already going bonkers over the goalie situation. It’s Matt Murray versus Ilya Samsonov. And sides are already being taken.

Take a look at social media. There’s outrage over Murray’s glove hand. There’s concern that Samsonov isn’t going to be the solution.

I think people need to chill – for now. There are two NHL goaltenders in Toronto with a pile of experience, and neither is going to sit on the iron throne after just one outing. It might even take the entire season before a No. 1 goalie emerges.

But I do think it’s worth analyzing the performances Murray and Samsonov have turned in thus far. Because to me, they’ve been strikingly different. And I think what I’ve seen is a harbinger of things to come in Toronto.

Matt Murray

The two-time Stanley Cup champion started the 2022-23 NHL season with a loss to the Montreal Canadiens. Murray allowed four goals on 23 shots, two of which occurred with under three minutes left in regulation.

I don’t think it was the easiest game for Murray to play. There wasn’t much action. But some of the stylistic tendencies that have plagued him in the past showed up once again. He’s still not tracking the puck well. And Murray’s wide stance isn’t helping his mobility.

You can see how low and wide Murray is in the screengrab above, despite Canadiens forward Nick Suzuki being so far away from the net. Nothing about Suzuki says that he’s shooting. Yet Murray is loaded deep on his inside edges. His knees are almost touching the ice.

Moving laterally – with any explosiveness – from this low of a crouch is really difficult. And it’s even harder to rotate. But with Murray there’s another layer. With that wide stance, he tends to drop and spread when the shot is released.

It’s really clear in this clip just how small Murray plays when his legs go into an extremely wide butterfly. He ends up blocking rather than reacting.

It doesn’t help that he’s off-angle in the first place. Murray’s right foot is in front of his left by a decent margin, which opens up the short side to Cole Caufield. The shot goes past Murray into the middle of the net.

I didn’t think it was Murray’s best outing. The way he’s tracking pucks concerns me and I think his rebound control isn’t where it needs to be. Which relates once again to how low he gets in his stance. Pucks are hitting his hands and shoulders rather than his chest.

Behind structure, the most frustrating part of Murrary’s evening was when the goals occurred. And a lot of that was out of his control. I don’t fault him for Sean Monahan’s goal. The puck was bouncing all over the place.

And while Josh Anderson’s game-winning goal didn’t look good, Murray was screened at the last second by Maple Leafs teammate Justin Holl. Murray had to guess which side Anderson was going to shoot. It just so happens the puck went into the net glove side high.

But Toronto shouldn’t have been in that position to begin with. Both of Caufield’s goals were stoppable if Murray had been more reactive. Instead, he was caught blocking.

The good news is that Murray did a really good job of managing his depth and getting his feet set before the shot. Rarely was he out of position. Murray prefers to stay in the blue paint and doesn’t have to chase the play very often.

But Murray has a worrisome knack of allowing goals on clean shots. And that’s exactly what sunk the Leafs against Montreal.

Ilya Samsonov

Samsonov got his first start with the Maple Leafs Thursday night against his former team, the Washington Capitals. The 25-year old Russian netminder earned the victory, stopping 24 of 26 shots.

I thought Samsonov had an OK first period. He got beat by Capitals center Nic Dowd on a quick passing play in tight. And minutes later, Marcus Johansson made it 2-1 in favor of the Capitals on a quick shot down the wing. With a few adjustments, Samsonov could have likely saved both.

Samsonov is actually in good shape when the clip begins. He’s down in the RVH post-integration, taking away the short-side shot while allowing himself a chance to get square on any passing attempt.

But things go wrong when Capitals defenseman Erik Gustafsson approaches the net. Samsonov reaches forward with his blocker hand and his shoulder loses the near-side post. That puts all his weight forward and off the post.

When Gustafsson sifts the puck over to Dowd, Samsonov is forced to reach across. And it’s all because of his forward weight distribution. Had Samsonov kept his right shoulder on the post, he would have been able to shift his torso into the middle of the net.

It’s a quick play and there’s no guarantee that Samsonov would have made the save. But had he remained patient with his blocker hand and played between his posts – instead of in front of them – he would have had a much better chance.

On Johansson’s goal, I think Samsonov simply lost his angle.

At first glance, Samsonov looks like he’s square to the shooter. His upper body is filling space. But look closely at Samsonov’s feet. They’re lined up with Johansson’s body. Not the stick blade.

Most often this tiny detail wouldn’t make much of a difference, especially on a net drive play like this one. But Johansson’s shot finds a way through Samsonov.

The goal is pretty much the definition of a ‘leaker.’ The kind that drives goalies crazy. Samsonov knows he was there, he was close to square, yet the puck found a way to squeak through. It’s a bad feeling for any goaltender.

But what I really liked about Samsonov’s game against the Capitals was that his feet were set for most of the shots he faced. And he did a nice job of maintaining a consistent depth.

I didn’t think Samsonov did those things very well as a member of the Washington Capitals. He was loose in his movements. He’d slide all over the crease and chase the play, which inevitably caused more than his fair share of leaky goals against.

Basically, I thought Samsonov’s game used to lack detail. But in his first start with the Maple Leafs, I came away impressed. Samsonov looked very comfortable in his positioning and save selections.

Part of that is likely due to Samsonov playing his old teammates. He knew the Capitals were going to Alex Ovechkin and John Carlson for one-timers on the power play. It’s easier to get set early when you know where the shot is coming from. No doubt Samsonov used insider knowledge to his advantage.

But my biggest takeaway was that Samsonov put the goals behind him and shut the door for the rest of the game. Sure, the Maple Leafs were better defensively in the second and third periods. But I didn’t see any change or panic with Samsonov.

Conclusion

For the most part, I liked Samsonov’s game. He played with consistency and confidence. And it appears that Samsonov has addressed some of his previous shortcomings. Whereas with Murray, I didn’t see anything to suggest meaningful changes have occurred. Plainly put: he makes me nervous.

It’s a long season. And I think both Maple Leafs goaltenders will have a chance to take over the crease. But right now, it’s advantage Samsonov.

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Analysis: Matt Murray and Ilya Samsonov’s first starts as Maple Leafs

Matt Murray

Ilya Samsonov

Conclusion

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