Are we seeing the end of the traditional rebuild in the NHL?

Credit: Timothy T. Ludwig-Imagn Images

All good things must come to an end – it applies to all walks of life. It is no different when it comes to NHL franchises and the evolution of their rosters. No matter the team, the quality or the win/loss record, there is always an expiration date.

Since the turn of the millennium, we have seen several successful rebuilds. Most notable are the Chicago Blackhawks and Pittsburgh Penguins, who have combined for six Stanley Cup championships since the 2005 lockout. The Boston Bruins, Los Angeles Kings and Washington Capitals are also teams that went through rebuilds in the early 2000s, combining for five more championships.

What do all five have in common regarding their respective rebuilds? They all suffered a near decade – and even longer, in some of their respective cases – of losing, resulting in high draft picks. The aforementioned teams ended up with high draft picks that became cornerstone players of their respective franchises, with the sole exception of the Bruins, who struck gold with some late-round selections and a few shrewd free-agent signings.

The result in championships for all of these teams who rebuilt roughly 20 years ago set a precedent for organizations that followed facing a similar reality. Sports are cyclical, and the NHL, in particular, is a “copy cat” league; it’s only normal that there would be teams looking to replicate the model that worked so well for the teams that reaped the rewards.

But is the “tear it down to the studs” rebuild outdated?

I can tell you that what has gone on with the likes of the Buffalo Sabres, Detroit Red Wings and Ottawa Senators over the last eight to 10 years has scared teams. Speaking with several league executives over the last couple of weeks, they have all pointed to the aforementioned three teams struggling to exit the “losing” phase of the rebuild and transition into a winning culture.

Gutting your team and bottoming out is the easy part – especially if you come away with a star-level player. The problem is, bottoming out does not automatically equate to landing a star/upper echelon player. While all landing good, to very good players, none of those mentioned above rebuilding teams landed a player that has consistently performed at an elite/star level since entering the league. The only possible exception is Sabres’ defenseman Rasmus Dahlin, though one may argue he is on the border of stardom. But even if we are to consider Dahlin a bonafide star, successfully rebuilt clubs from the ground up feature a cornerstone piece up front: Patrice Bergeron, Sidney Crosby, Patrick Kane, Anze Kopitar, Alex Ovechkin, etc.

This is not to say that you can get away with pedestrian defensemen, but the common theme of the five teams who turned scorched earth rebuilds into championships 20 years ago are star-level players who performed at said levels year after year. To this point, none of the Red Wings, Sabres or Senators have such a star up front.

Players learn to lose, and it is hard to break the mold when committing to a losing culture for several consistent years in order to bottom out for the top-tier talent. If you land this talent it is often enough to pull you out – but as long as you commit to winning straight away. The Penguins made the playoffs two years into Crosby’s career; it took year three for Ovechkin. You don’t want players becoming complacent with a non-playoff life.

Speaking with one Western Conference general manager, he shared his belief that the San Jose Sharks should be looking to wrap up their rebuild. They bottomed out and landed Macklin Celebrini, who is already showing signs of a star in the making. Along with higher end picks in Sam Dickinson and Will Smith, along with acquiring players like William Eklund and Yaroslav Askarov along the way, the Sharks have their team’s pillars in place. According to this specific GM, the time is now to exit the losing phase and insulate their younger talent with quality veterans.

The Red Wings and Sabres have lacked that veteran presence. Detroit moved on from the likes of Tyler Bertuzzi and Filip Hronek several years back as they compiled assets. Additionally, they tried to replace the already integrated veterans with a slew of mid-free agent signings that have, for the most part, simply not worked out in the least. In Buffalo’s case, they have struggled to find role players to fill specific needs lower in the lineup. They tried to fix that this year with additions like Nicolas Aube-Kubel, Michael McLeod and Jason Zucker, but is it too little, too late?

The Senators finally seem to be turning a corner, but their significant (yet few) additions over the summer on the back end and in goal have finally addressed holes that the prior regime neglected for years. GM Steve Staios finally brought in a veteran, stabilizing defensive presence in Nick Jensen to play alongside Thomas Chabot, while the addition of Linus Ullmark has, at least recently, given the Senators their best goaltending for the first time since the departure of Craig Anderson. The Senators are not out of the woods yet, but they have shown signs of life.

In light of the aforementioned Atlantic division rebuilds that have gone stagnant for years, we have seen a “do it on the fly” approach taken by teams in need of a reset recently.

The Philadelphia Flyers fully embraced a rebuild under new management 18 months ago but have largely stayed committed to their preexisting, yet still relatively young, core that preceded President of Hockey Operations Keith Jones and GM Daniel Briere. Their cautious approach of moving on from their players has come with criticism from fans and media, but has been praised by executives from other teams I’ve communicated with in recent weeks. As one Western Conference executive said to me, retaining players like Travis Konecny and Travis Sanheim to lead a young core was a very good decision.

The Calgary Flames have taken a similar approach in their rebuild under GM Craig Conroy, though they moved off of pending unrestricted free agents – it is worth mentioning that some were on the older side, making their departures less impactful for a rebuilding club – in Elias Lindholm, Noah Hanifin, Chris Tanev and Nikita Zadorov, all of whom were not looking to re-sign. But retaining guys like captain Mikael Backlund, Nazem Kadri and Mackenzie Weegar is important for younger players like Connor Zary and goaltender Dustin Wolf. As one person said to me, what kind of impact would it have on the development of a young goaltender in Wolf if his team is caved in every game?

The Edmonton Oilers and Colorado Avalanche are both recent examples of successfully executing a full teardown, so there is validity to believing in this model. But both teams struggled for close to a decade and landed more than one elite player each after multiple top-5 draft picks. In addition to what 10 years of losing can do to a fan base and business side, a lot of luck goes into it; you need to land top picks and hope that it happens with a draft class featuring star-level players.

For a team in the Midwest like the St. Louis Blues, can you afford to risk being near the bottom of the league year after year? Hockey is not the no.1 sport in a lot of markets in that part of the continent, and a team like the Blues may not be willing to roll the dice on losing a significant part of their fanbase.

In addition to how a multi-year rebuild will affect the players, there is also a business side of it that needs to be kept in mind. That’s why a team like the Blues has continued to make additions the last six months, and while we’ll likely never see a small market team like the Winnipeg Jets look to fully bottom out. As an Eastern conference executive mentioned to me, the hockey and business side need to be in lockstep – especially if a rebuild is on the horizon.

There isn’t a one-size-fits-all formula, and it certainly isn’t “wrong” to go down the road of a full rebuild, but there are a lot of risks that come with it. Both a roll of the dice on the business side and in the locker room presents itself, and without a star-level player to build around, it is a tough storm to navigate out of. The scorched earth rebuilds have not yet gone fully the way of the dinosaurs, but I reckon that we may see them less and less.

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Are we seeing the end of the traditional rebuild in the NHL?

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