Auditing the 2024-25 Daily Faceoff Draft Kit: Late-Round Sleepers
With the 2024-25 Fantasy Hockey season winding down, I’m taking a look back at the Daily Faceoff Draft Kit to see where I was right and where I went wrong last fall. Let’s start with my Late-Round Sleepers:
Forwards
Matvei Michkov (PHI – RW – ADP: 147.8)
What I said in September: In their draft year, Michkov had an NHLe (56) similar to Connor Bedard (62). Bedard had an ADP of 37.3 in his rookie season despite having a horrendous surrounding cast. Michkov will have much more talented players to play with on a nightly basis and is being drafted nine rounds later. If Michkov’s NHLe directly translates, he could be a 30-plus goal and 35-plus assist player this year. There’s too much upside to pass on in the 13th round.
Verdict: Fair Value. Michkov looked like an absolute steal with nine points (4G / 5A) in his first eight games, but he went on to post just 38 points (16G / 22A) in his next 60 games. His ADP wouldn’t have hurt you, so you could have still made the playoffs with Michkov, and he’s got hot at the right time, scoring four goals with seven assists (11 points) in his last six games.
Macklin Celebrini (SJS – C – ADP: 157.1)
What I said in September: All of the points I made about Michkov also ring true for Celebrini. He won the Hobey Baker Award as a freshman after posting 32 goals and 32 assists (64 points) in 38 games at Boston University, which carries a 59 NHLe. Despite similar production and vastly better teammates, Celebrini is going 120 picks later than Bedard did in his rookie year.
Verdict: Steal. Celebrini missed 12 games with an injury this season and still ranks 50 spots ahead of his ADP in Yahoo Standard Leagues. He’s scored at a 70-point (27G / 43A) per 82-game pace and has a nearly identical statistical profile as Matt Boldy, who went 70 picks before Celebrini on draft day.
Viktor Arvidsson (EDM – LW – ADP: 160.6)
What I said in September: Whether or not Arvidsson can return value on this ADP depends on whether he can stay healthy. When he’s in the lineup, he produces. He’s been a great 5v5 producer, so he doesn’t need to be on PP1 to be a factor. Arvidsson is expected to skate with Leon Draisaitl at 5v5 and could be a 35-35 player in 2024-25.
Verdict: Not all wrong, but mostly. Arvidsson continued to be plagued by injuries, missing 15 games. He didn’t need the power play to produce but didn’t come anywhere close to the production we saw in Los Angeles in 2022-23. He’s formed a nice partnership with Draisaitl at 5v5 and has been much better lately, but he wasn’t anything more than a streaming option this season.
JJ Peterka (BUF – RW – ADP: 163.5)
What I said in September: A breakout for Peterka seems easy to project. At the end of last year, we saw that the Sabres would trust him to play big minutes, as the 22-year-old averaged 20:26 TOI/GM in his final 13 games. It’s a small sample size, but he averaged 3.5 SOG/gm in that time and scored seven goals. He will undoubtedly play more than the 16:24 he averaged last year, and his production should increase significantly.
Verdict: A fine pick. I owned Peterka in every league I was in this season, and I held onto him all year. He was a strong bottom-of-the-roster option that outperformed his ADP (155.1) by a few rounds. Peterka’s breakout never really materialized because his shot volume took an unexpected dip, but he offset that with a drastic uptick in assists. Peterka’s on another late-season heater with 18 points (8G / 11A) in his last 17 games, which will probably be enough to suck me back in next year.
Adam Fantilli (CBJ – C – ADP: 169.2)
What I said in September: Fantilli missed 33 games in his rookie year but was starting to heat up before his season ended prematurely on January 28th. From December 1st to January 27th, Fantilli had 17 points (8G / 9A) and 54 SOG in 24 games. If you extrapolate that over 82 games, Fantilli was on a 27-goal, 31-assist and 185 SOG per 82-game pace. And that was all while averaging just 16:13 TOI/gm, a mark that should increase in year two. In the final 15 games of that run, he averaged 17:11 TOI/gm, so there’s full reason to expect Fantilli to play more and produce more in 2024-25.
Verdict: Hopefully, you picked him up. Fantilli was only drafted in 10 percent of leagues to begin with, but he was a great end-of-your-roster, high-upside pick in the last round or two. Unfortunately, you probably dropped him pretty early on because he was slow out of the gates. Fantilli has been excellent since the start of January though, showing why I liked his upside in the preseason. He has 32 points (17G / 15A) in his last 36 games, a 39-goal and 35 assist per 82-game pace.
Gabriel Vilardi (WPG – C,RW – ADP: 169.5)
What I said in September: Vilradi is expected to skate in a top-line role with Mark Scheifele and Kyle Connor, a trio that scored 3.3 GF/60 last year. Vilardi was on pace for over 200 shots, which could put him over 35 goals if he maintains an elite SH% (17.3 for his career). Additionally, if you’re in a league that counts PPG or PPP, Vilardi should be a great low-cost producer of both: nine PPG and 14 PPP in 47 games last year.
Verdict: Nailed it! I couldn’t have been more right about Vilardi, who was playing like a top-50 player before he got hurt. He spent almost the entire season on a line with Scheifele and Connor, gave owners solid shot volume and great power-play production. Vilardi was on pace for 31 goals, 39 assists, and 29 PPP over 82 games.
Nick Schmaltz (UTA – C,RW – ADP: 169.5)
What I said in September: In the previous three seasons, he’s averaged 27 goals, 44 assists (71 points), 165 SOG, and 16 PPP per 82 games. These are similar numbers to what you’d get from someone like Brandon Hagel, who is going 60 picks earlier. Schmaltz should continue to play big minutes (19:03 ATOI) for a Utah team that should be better this year. If you’re looking for a breakout, you might want to look at some other names on this list, but if you want to lock in consistent production, Schmaltz is your guy.
Verdict: Fair Value. Schmaltz once again found himself around 25 percent owned almost all season and was a go-to streaming target. The ingredients for a breakout were there, he’s set a career-high in assists (41) and SOG (171) but was limited by a 9.9 SH%. If he had been able to maintain his career 14.2 SH%, his numbers would have been very similar to Nikolaj Ehlers, who went 50 picks earlier and has been a top-75 fantasy player this season.
Jake Neighbours (STL – LW,RW – ADP: 170.7)
What I said in September: Entering 2024-25, Neighbours will be a crucial cog in the Blues’ top-6 and top power-play unit and has 30-plus goal upside. He also carries additional value in banger leagues, averaging close to two hits per game. The 22-year-old should be viewed as similar to Chris Kreider, with high goal totals, modest assists, and strong hit contributions, but he can be selected 12 rounds later.
Verdict: Meh. Neighbours’ role didn’t grow as much as expected because Dylan Holloway ended up taking on a much larger role. Neighbours was solid, especially in banger leagues, where he averaged 2+ hits per game to go along with 21 goals and 44 points. But that’s bottom-of-your-lineup/waiver-wire material.
Dylan Guenther (UTA – RW – ADP: 180.0)
What I said in September: Guenther is the sleeper of all sleepers this fall. He had 18 goals and 17 assists (35 points) in 45 games last year, including 18 points (10G / 8A) in his final 18 games. Guenther played 17:08 TOI/gm during that stretch, showcasing the type of usage you can expect this season. Putting too much stock into an 18-game sample size is tricky, but Guenther averaged 3.4 SOG/gm, a 279 SOG pace. If he can maintain anything close to that volume, Guenther should be a lock for 30 goals and could flirt with 40 goals this season. Guenther should provide 30-plus assists as well, so make sure you’re targeting him in the final couple of rounds in every one of your drafts.
Verdict: Too easy. Guenther made me look smart instantly. He had back-to-back two-goal games to open the season and had five goals in his first three games. He missed 12 games due to injury. Otherwise, he would already be over 30 goals, 30 assists and 230 SOG at this stage. The 21-year-old is just getting started and will continue to be a fantasy force for years to come.
Defensemen
Shayne Gostisbehere (CAR – D – ADP: 153.3)
What I said in September: Since leaving Philadelphia, the veteran blueliner has quietly put together three outstanding offensive seasons in a row. During that stretch, he scored 37 goals (11th most among defensemen), 148 points (18th), 63 PPP (9th) and 445 SOG (38th). In the early part of training camp, Gostisbehere has been running the Hurricanes’ top power-play unit, a spot that should yield big fantasy numbers. The Hurricanes may have lost some key bodies in the offseason, but their top power-play unit remains intact. Carolina was second in the NHL in PP% (26.9%) last year.
Verdict: Decent Value. Gostisbehere also made me look good early in the season, with nine points (4G / 5A) in his first nine games. Overall, he’s been solid, posting seven goals with 36 assists (43 points) in 65 games, but he’s been held back by the Hurricanes’ power-play only converting at 19.0% (23rd).
Lane Hutson (MTL – D – ADP: 172.3)
What I said in September: Hutson will be coming into the NHL at the same age as Luke Hughes did. In Hutson’s Draft+2 year, he put up nearly identical numbers (NHLe: 45) as Hughes did (NHLe: 43). It didn’t take Hughes long to become a fantasy commodity, posting 47 points (9G / 38A) in 82 games last year. It cost you a 10th-round pick (ADP: 119.7) to draft Hughes, Hutson is only being drafted in 28 percent of leagues (ADP: 172.3). Hutson has a road-block (Mike Matheson) in his way of PP1 time, but it feels like he’ll inevitably be on that unit at some point this season. The rookie is too talented to send to Laval (AHL) and too talented to keep off PP1.
Verdict: Nailed it! Hutson eventually replaced Matheson on PP1 and has been insane since the start of December. Since then, he’s third among NHL defensemen with 49 points (5G / 44A) in 52 games, trailing only Cale Makar and Zach Werenski. He was a league-winning pick.
Goalies
Justus Annunen (COL – G – ADP: 156.8)
What I said in September: If Annunen continues to play well and Georgiev doesn’t bounce back, Annunen will eat into his workload. Even if it’s a 60-40 split, Annunen will be a great option in his roughly 30 starts and gives you a high-upside option as your No.3 fantasy netminder. According to the Sportsbooks, the Avalanche have the second-highest projected point total, so Annunen and Georgiev will be in line for a lot of wins this season.
Verdict: Both Annunen and Georgiev stunk. The job was there for the taking, but Annunen fumbled it. He had an .872 SV% in 11 games with the Avalanche before being traded to the Nashville Predators.
Arturs Silovs (VAN – G – ADP: 165.3)
What I said in September: There’s a lot of uncertainty regarding Thatcher Demko’s injury entering the season, and it’s looking more and more likely that he won’t be available when the Canucks’ break camp in October. Vancouver just signed Kevin Lankinen as insurance, which indicates where they think Demko is at right now. If Demko misses the season’s start, Silovs would likely see the lion’s share of the starts in a timeshare with Lankinen. After Demko got hurt in the playoffs, Silovs played well and showed he could carry the water while Demko is sidelined.
Verdict: It should have been Lankinen. Demko’s injury did linger. He didn’t make his season debut until mid-December, but it was Lankinen who was the draft day steal/pickup from the Canucks. Silovs was terrible. He went 1-4-1 with an .847 SV% in his first seven outings and found himself in the AHL by December. Meanwhile, Lankinen was 13-4-3 with a .908 SV% before Demko got healthy.
Dustin Wolf (CGY – G – ADP: 167.4)
What I said in September: Wolf’s outstanding AHL numbers (2.29 GAA & .926 SV% in 141 games) have yet to translate to the NHL level to this point, but drafting him in the 14th round is a low-risk/high-reward bet that Wolf’s talent will finally shine through for the Flames. According to the Sportsbooks, Calgary is projected to have the sixth-fewest points this season, so Wolf isn’t going to win you 30 games, but as your No.3 or even No.4 fantasy netminder, you can be picky with his matchups. And if the Flames end up being better than expected, he’ll be a total steal.
Verdict: Nailed it! The Flames have been better than expected in September, and Wolf has been outstanding. He’s gone 25-16-6 with a 2.62 GAA, .910 SV% and three shutouts. He ranks as the No.10 goalie in Yahoo Standard leagues, truly a team-altering pick on Draft Day.