Best NHL Player Prop Bets (Mar. 13): Blues’ Top Line Poised to Stay Hot

Join Daily Faceoff’s Nick Martin as he handicaps Thursday’s best NHL player prop bets.

Pavel Buchnevich Over 0.5 points (-117) at Sports Interaction

Of the four teams battling for the final Western Conference playoff spot, the St. Louis Blues have the easiest remaining schedule. They have one of their more favorable matchups on Thursday when they take on the Pittsburgh Penguins at PPG Paints Arena.

Thanks to poor defensive play and shaky goaltending, the Penguins are a virtual lock to miss the playoffs for a third straight season, sitting at just 62 points through 67 games. They have allowed 3.57 goals per game this season and a league-high 4.30 goals per game over their last 10 matchups.

We touched on the dominant play of the Blues’ top line—Robert Thomas, Pavel Buchnevich, and Jake Neighbours—last week, and this looks like a good spot to go back to the well.

Thomas is one of the game’s premier playmakers and continues to get plenty of offensive-zone touches, thanks to strong work from his two linemates, both of whom are capable finishers. The Blues’ top trio consistently displays strong chemistry and predictability, leading to excellent results.

Thomas, Buchnevich, and Neighbours hold a 68% goal share in 274.2 minutes of play—the fourth-highest mark among units with over 250 minutes together this season. Their output of 3.72 goals per 60 minutes ranks sixth among lines with at least 250 minutes of ice time.

Buchnevich also skated on the Blues’ top power-play unit at yesterday’s practice, a role he has not always occupied this season.

He has recorded 10 points over the last 10 games, tallying a single point in seven of those matchups. Considering his likely usage in tonight’s game against one of the league’s worst defensive teams, -117 looks like a great price to back him recording a point.

Kevin Fiala Over 0.5 points (-120) at Sports Interaction

Despite some complacent defensive play in several recent matchups, the Washington Capitals continue to win games. During their current five-game winning streak, they have allowed 3.35 expected goals against per 60 minutes, and aside from their gritty win at MSG last Wednesday, they have looked as poor defensively as that number suggests.

Regardless of which wingers have been paired with Pierre-Luc Dubois, the Capitals’ second line has been dominant defensively this season. As a result, head coach Spencer Carbery continues to hard-match Dubois’ line against opponents’ top units as much as possible. That could mean soft matchups for Kevin Fiala and the Kings’ third line, as the Capitals’ other three units have not been defending particularly well.

The Kings’ third trio of Fiala, Quinton Byfield, and Alex Laferriere has been dominant this season and is quietly in a strong position to stay productive against the Capitals. In 163.5 minutes together, they have scored 3.67 goals per 60 minutes and generated 75.98 shot attempts per 60.

Consistency can be an issue for Fiala, but at his best, he is one of the NHL’s most dynamic skaters. He leads all Kings skaters with 20 points over the last 22 games. At -120, there looks to be value in targeting Fiala to hit the scoresheet after a quiet performance against the New York Islanders on Tuesday.