Best NHL Player Prop Bets (Mar. 18): Harley in Prime Spot Against Shot-Friendly Ducks

Join Daily Faceoff’s Nick Martin as he handicaps the best NHL player props available on Tuesday night.

Pavel Buchnevich Over 0.5 points (-118) at Sports Interaction

Thanks to a 10-3-3 run since February 1, the St. Louis Blues enter tonight’s slate tied with the Vancouver Canucks for the final Wild Card spot out West and have a very winnable matchup against the 30th-ranked Nashville Predators.

At 25-41 straight up, betting on the Predators in every game this season would yield a -32.9% ROI, the worst of any team in the NHL. As Nashville is only a slight underdog (-105) in tonight’s matchup, it appears overvalued once again, while the chances of the Blues’ top line delivering another productive performance seem underrated by oddsmakers.

We’ve talked a lot about the Blues’ top line in these articles recently, and they have yet to let us down. Robert Thomas, Pavel Buchnevich, and Jake Neighbours continue to display excellent chemistry during sustained offensive zone play. They have scored 3.72 goals per 60 minutes this season, ranking sixth in the NHL among lines that have played over 250 minutes together.

Buchnevich has tallied 15 points over the last 15 games, recording at least one point in 11 of those matchups. It remains reasonable to expect similar production moving forward, especially as he currently holds a spot on the top power-play unit, which has not always been the case recently.

The Predators have allowed 3.24 goals against per game this season and 3.31 since February 1. Juuse Saros has struggled to a -4.3 GSAx and a .897 save percentage, and his surprisingly poor play has been a key factor in the Predators’ underachievement.

At -118, I see value in backing Buchnevich to record a point in a favorable matchup Tuesday.

Thomas Harley Over 2.5 shots on goal (+130) at Sports Interaction

Since Miro Heiskanen suffered a significant knee injury on February 28, Harley has become the clear-cut number-one defenseman on the Stars’ roster and has thrived in his expanded role. He has recorded 15 points in 15 games since Heiskanen’s injury while averaging a whopping 25:19 of ice time.

Backing Harley to record a point since Heiskanen’s injury has been a highly profitable strategy and remains a solid option at -143. However, in a matchup against the Anaheim Ducks, the much longer price of +130 for Harley to record over 2.5 shots on goal looks even more appealing.

The Ducks continue to stay competitive in games they likely shouldn’t, thanks to the stellar goaltending of Lukas Dostal and John Gibson. Since the conclusion of the 4 Nations Face-Off break, no team has allowed more shots against per 60 minutes than the Ducks, and they have also allowed the most shots against per 60 over the entire season.

Over the last five games, Harley has averaged 5.8 shot attempts per game and has recorded over 2.5 shots on goal three times. In a highly favorable matchup against the Ducks, +130 looks like excellent value for Harley to register three or more shots once again.