Breaking down the cases for the four main Hart Trophy candidates in 2023-24

For the first time in what feels like forever, the race for the Hart Trophy seems to be going down to the wire. Okay, maybe it has happened recently, but the battle between Connor McDavid and Auston Matthews in 2022 is much different than what we’re seeing this season.

The 2023-24 season has gifted us with a Hart Trophy battle that isn’t just McDavid dominating, but a four-horse race, with each player providing a bit of a unique case. Sure, a big reason why it’s close is because McDavid had a slow start to the year to put him at a more human level and give everyone a head start. But Matthews, Nathan MacKinnon and Nikita Kucherov are all making excellent cases themselves to get the nod.

Whether it’s being the best player in the league, being the most valuable player to their team, accomplishing a historic feat, leading the league in scoring, or even just gunning for sympathy votes, there are plenty of cases for these four forwards to win the Hart Trophy (and that’s not even including the play of players in other positions like Roman Josi and Connor Hellebuyck). With that, I’m going to break down each player’s case for – and against – winning this year’s Hart Trophy.

Auston Matthews

Case(s) For: Historic feat if he hits 70 goals, best defensive game
Case(s) Against: Not enough assists, Already won a Hart, Not as much of a candidate if he doesn’t hit 70 goals

Matthews’ Hart Trophy case is mostly dependent on one thing: scoring 70 goals. Currently at 63 with seven games left in the season, his season pace over 81 games (since he missed one game) puts him at 69 (nice). While seven goals in seven games is certainly not out of the question for Matthews, especially when he’s scored 51 in a 50-game span before, it’s also not going to be a breeze for him either.

Should Matthews hit the 70-goal mark this season, he’ll become the first player in 31 years to do so. And while many are citing McDavid’s 100-assist campaign as the more impressive since fewer players have done it in NHL history, I’ll go on the record to say that when you can get two assists for every goal, 140 assists would technically be on par with 70 goals, but we’ll get into the secondary assist argument later.

Along with his impressive goal-scoring totals this season, Matthews’ 4.4 defensive goals above replacement is the best out of the group here, and ranks 29th in the league, although MacKinnon’s 3.8 isn’t too far behind in a tie for 38th. But Matthews’ ability to be a threat at both ends of the ice is a part of his game that’s been consistent every year, and while it’s not Patrice Bergeron levels of defense, Matthews still performs at an elite level. The fact that he’s the only candidate here that will likely get votes for the Selke as well could get him some votes from people wanting to select the best all-around player.

The problem for Matthews is that if he doesn’t score 70 goals, his campaign for his second Hart doesn’t pop as much. He’s not in the running for the Art Ross at this point, and that’s a huge detriment to his case. When he’s more than 25 points behind the rest of the top candidates, a historic milestone is his only chance. While I don’t think not having the same point totals should hurt his case if he does hit 70 goals (especially when he’s 5-15 points behind them when you eliminate secondary assists and actually ahead of both McDavid and Kucherov when looking at 5v5 primary points), I do understand why he isn’t much of a threat for the Hart if he doesn’t score 70.

Connor McDavid

Case(s) For: It’s Connor McDavid, 100-assist season
Case(s) Against: Voter fatigue, secondary assists

I don’t think McDavid needs too much of an explanation as to why he should be a candidate for the Hart Trophy. He’s “only” won it a shocking three times in his career, despite winning the Art Ross Trophy five times, and he also likely would have surpassed teammate Leon Draisaitl for his sixth scoring crown in 2019-20 if the season didn’t shut down due to COVID-19. The Hart Trophy is McDavid’s to lose every season as the league’s best player.

Even if you want to follow the “most valuable to his team” purist definition that many seem to interpret the award as, he’s still showcased that this season. During the Oilers’ 5-12-1 start, McDavid was tied for 90th in the league in scoring with 16 points in 16 games and 15 points behind the scoring lead, playing like a mere mortal thanks to early injuries that also likely resulted in the team’s struggles. Since then, he leads the NHL in scoring with 110 points in 56 games, he’s now four points behind Kucherov for the scoring lead, and the Oilers are 40-12-4. He also sits sixth among forwards with at least 1,000 minutes of ice time in relative 5v5 expected goal share this season, although the fact that a) his teammate Zach Hyman is right ahead of him and b) MacKinnon is right behind him doesn’t make that nearly as impressive.

So, what’s working against him? For starters, he’s so easily established himself as the best that it feels like he has to do something historic every season just to impress us, like hitting 100 points in a shortened season or 150 in a full season. He may even do that this season being just three assists shy of 100 assists in a season, something only achieved previously by Wayne Gretzky, Mario Lemieux and Bobby Orr.

But in comparison to Matthews’ 70 goal pursuit, assists are a bit easier to get, especially since secondary assists have been proven to be a bit more random in terms of who gets them. Even for McDavid, the percentage of his assists which are secondary varies from 24% to 50% in his career. 62.89% of McDavid’s assists this season are primary, which ranks 10th among the 14 100-assist seasons if you include his 2023-24 season. It’s not going to lose him Hart votes, but it’s something to consider if the reason you’re picking him this season is because of the 100-assist achievement.

Nathan MacKinnon

Case(s) For: One of the league’s best players and has never won it, could be the league-leading scorer, valuable to the team earlier in the year
Case(s) Against: Isn’t really the top option when it comes to most reasons to vote (i.e. Best player, most valuable player, historic season) if he doesn’t lead the league in scoring

Since MacKinnon first took that step from being a really good player to one of the league’s best in 2017-18, we’ve more or less seen McDavid, Matthews and MacKinnon be tossed into the conversation for the top three forwards in the league, with some people maybe considering Draisaitl. MacKinnon probably doesn’t care too much about that debate considering that he’s the only one of the three to win a Stanley Cup, but he’s also the only of the three not to win a Hart Trophy. He came close in 2018 and 2020 when the conversation was up in the air, but fell just 70 and 147 votes short of Taylor Hall and Draisaitl in those seasons.

This season may be MacKinnon’s best chance to finally get his first Hart Trophy. While McDavid’s slow start gave MacKinnon and Kucherov a bit of a head start in the scoring race before he picked things up, MacKinnon hasn’t been all that far behind McDavid when he finally did return to normal. Remember when I mentioned with McDavid’s pace after the Oilers’ first 18 games? MacKinnon only had six fewer points in that same span. It’s still very close.

Between that and the fact that MacKinnon has been more essential to the Colorado Avalanche when they lacked depth earlier in the season, that may sway voters towards him. And much like in 2016 when voters just decided that Drew Doughty was going to win a Norris Trophy because he was due, they may feel inclined to do the same with MacKinnon this year (although it’s much more deserved).

That said, outside of leading the league in scoring and some sympathy votes for never winning a Hart Trophy, MacKinnon isn’t exactly a top candidate for most of the other reasons you might vote for a player. Out of the four in the conversation, he’s not the best player in the league (McDavid), he’s not the most important to his team (Kucherov), and now that he’s lost out on getting a point in every home game this year, he’s not cooking up something historic (Matthews and McDavid). So, if anyone is voting with one of those reasons in mind, MacKinnon might not be their top choice. He might be second on a lot of ballots, but he might miss out on that first place vote.

Nikita Kucherov

Case(s) For: Could be the league-leading scorer, most valuable player to his team
Case(s) Against: Could get lost in the voting if he doesn’t lead the league in scoring

When the Tampa Bay Lightning announced during training camp that Andrei Vasilevskiy would miss the first couple months of the season due to back surgery, most of the hockey world had some concern for the Bolts. While I don’t think anyone expected them to easily miss the playoffs, it was certainly possible that a slow start without their Vezina-winning goaltender could be enough to see them get lost in the group of bubble teams and potentially miss out on the playoffs. Sure, they’d suffered a key injury and made the playoffs before in 2020-21, but they’ve also seen injuries cause them to just miss the playoffs in 2016-17. Considering that this Lightning squad has been depleted due to cap constraints, it’s easy to see how the latter could happen.

Well, Kucherov begged to differ. The Lightning managed a solid 9-6-5 record in Vasilevskiy’s absence, and that’s all thanks to the play of Kucherov. He managed to get 13 goals and 29 points in that span while also missing one game, and while he only had five points on teammate Brayden Point at that time, he’s since lapped the field with a 47-point lead on Point. It’s not like Kucherov slowed down since then either, sitting in third in scoring since Vasilevskiy’s return with 29 goals and 101 points in 55 games. Even with Vasilevskiy back, the goaltender has seen his struggles this year, further establishing that Kucherov is easily the most valuable player to his team.

But compared to the other three, Kucherov isn’t quite on the same level on a season-to-season basis. Kucherov is elite, but McDavid, Matthews and MacKinnon are generational. Even this season, his 23.4 goals above replacement this season is fourth among the group by a significant margin, with MacKinnon, McDavid and Matthews ranging from 33.4 to 29.3, and Kucherov is the only one of the four with a negative defensive GAR. If he doesn’t finish as the top scorer this season, it’s possible that he could be lost in the voting and maybe not get as many first place votes as he may need. I wouldn’t be shocked if he ends up in third on most ballots, but if he doesn’t really push his case for being most valuable to his team and the top scorer, it might hurt his chances.

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