Buyer beware: five Trade Deadline targets that won’t be worth the price

Calgary Flames goaltender Dan Vladar (80) looks on against the Pittsburgh Penguins during the first period at PPG Paints Arena.

Credit: © Charles LeClaire

The Trade Deadline is one of the most exciting points of the hockey calendar, as we get to see all the contending teams make their moves to improve for a chance at the Stanley Cup. With the market as volatile as it is at that point of the year, the price tags go up, and sometimes it’s worth it. Just look at how the Vegas Golden Knights are still reaping the rewards of the Noah Hanifin and Tomas Hertl trades from last season despite the high prices that they paid for them.

But for every Trade Deadline deal that pays off, many transactions fall flat. Sometimes a team gives up a first-round pick or a top prospect for a player, and either the team has a short playoff run or the player doesn’t live up to the price. Sometimes the team doesn’t even pay a high price but the player has a negative impact, meaning the cost is high. When only one team wins the Stanley Cup, it doesn’t always work out for the buying team.

Some of those misses are circumstantial, but sometimes it was obvious ahead of time that the player wasn’t a fit for their team, or that they just weren’t good in the first place. We’ll be looking at players who fit the latter mold, ones who have not produced good results this season and likely won’t be much help for their new teams, especially for the high prices they’d command.

Mario Ferraro, San Jose Sharks

Now in his sixth season with the San Jose Sharks, Ferraro has found himself in the team’s top four defense core for several seasons, largely in a physical, penalty-killing role. Since 2022-23, he’s 16th among defensemen in blocked shots and 29th in hits. That’s what some teams look for in a defenseman, and that’s put him and the Sharks in a situation where he now has the kind of value that they’d like to explore the trade deadline market with.

But the problem with evaluating Ferraro is that the entirety of his Sharks career, the team has not been competitive. That begs the question, is Ferraro in a top four, penalty-killing defenseman because that’s what he’s capable of, or is it because the Sharks need someone to fill the void out of necessity? A quick dive into the numbers, and it might be the latter.

His high blocked shot and hit totals should be a red flag, not a green flag, as it implies that he doesn’t have the puck all that much. That logic carries over to his possession metrics, as in that same span, he has a 45.13% 5v5 expected goal share, including 3.02 5v5 expected goals against per 60 minutes, tied for the 13th-worst mark out of any defenseman with 1,000 minutes in that span. His penalty killing isn’t much better with a -5.4 shorthanded defensive goals above replacement.

You could argue that Ferraro’s numbers are a byproduct of playing for a consistently bad team like the Sharks, and a +0.46 5v5 xGF% relative to his teammates does hint at a slight improvement should he go elsewhere. But it also means that this is more or less what he is. Perhaps playing in a lesser role on a better team with better players could change that, but there are certainly better defensemen on the market to pursue than Ferraro.

Scott Laughton, Philadelphia Flyers

Laughton is considered to be one of the top targets at the trade deadline, as his reputation as a shutdown, penalty killing center has caught the attention of most of the league. He’s held down the middle-six center role for many seasons with the Philadelphia Flyers, and he’s developed an offensive touch to his game, averaging about a point every other game in the past three seasons.

But much like Ferraro, Laughton may be in that role in recent seasons due to necessity, not due to his talent level. While he has had some seasons in his mid-to-late 20s where he deserved the reputation that he has, at 30-years-old, getting that level from him consistently won’t be as easy.

From 2021-22 to 2023-24 season, Laughton had a combined -13.7 GAR, including a -18 defensive GAR, which was the eighth-worst and fifth-worst marks in the league in that span. That’s highlighted by a 2023-24 season where, in a season where the Flyers were competitive for most of the season and had good possession numbers with a 52.75% 5v5 xGF%, he had the fifth-worst GAR at -10.9 and the worst defensive GAR at -9.3. He also has a combined -6.8 shorthanded GAR in those seasons, so his penalty killing hasn’t bee good either.

Now, Laughton has seen some improvement this season. He has a 2.2 GAR and 1.5 defensive GAR through 58 games, which at least indicates that he could make a positive impact on whatever team acquires him this season. But, he does have one more year on his contract beyond this one, and in that case, the team will be hoping that they get the Laughton from this season and not the three years prior, which isn’t great odds. It’s not that Laughton will be a bad acquisition, but considering the asking price has been close to a first-round pick, he probably won’t be worth it.

David Savard, Montreal Canadiens

There was once a time where Savard was an excellent shutdown defenseman. He played a big role on the late 2010s Columbus Blue Jackets teams that consistently made the playoffs and helped shelter their defensively adventurous top pair of Zach Werenski and Seth Jones alongside the likes of Ryan Murray and Vladislav Gavrikov.

However, we last saw that defenseman when he hoisted the Stanley Cup with the Tampa Bay Lightning, and since joining the Montreal Canadiens, he has been nowhere close to that level, especially this season at 34 years old.

It’s the nature of his style of game. Eventually, defenders age out of the role and can’t keep up with the speed of the league’s best players. In the past three seasons, Savard has a 44.13% 5v5 xGF%, the 21st-worst mark in the league, and a 3.1 5v5 xGA/60, the seventh-worst in the league, and with a -4.22% 5v5 xGF% Rel, it’s not because of his teammates. His penalty killing isn’t much better with a -9 shorthanded GAR.

While Savard’s market value isn’t anywhere close to the first-, third- and fourth-round pick the Lightning had to pay in 2021, he’s a right-shot defenseman who will probably get interest from some teams. Maybe there’s a world where he fits into a role as a bottom-pair defenseman who’s physical in front of the net, but even then, you’d be better looking elsewhere on the trade market considering his play over the past four seasons.

Luke Schenn, Nashville Predators

Schenn is a well-travelled defenseman, usually in a bottom-pairing role but sometimes playing in the top four as the stay-at-home physical guy who can balance out a high-end defender. It worked for two Stanley Cups with the Lightning alongside Victor Hedman and Mikhail Sergachev, and it even worked alongside Morgan Rielly in 2023 as the Toronto Maple Leafs won their first playoff series in 19 years. As a result, he got one final payday with the Nashville Predators in 2023.

But don’t let the results fool you, Schenn was never really a key cog in that. Since the 2016-17 season, he has struggled with his game, as he’s sporting a -0.224 GAR/60, the 26th worst mark among defensemen in that span. His -0.069 defensive GAR/60 isn’t nearly as alarming but does at least indicate some inconsistencies, and his shorthanded GAR/60 of -0.475 isn’t promising at all.

The other issue with Schenn isn’t so much the price that it will cost to add him, but also the price tag that comes with his contract. At $2.75 million per year with one year left on his deal after this, that’s a lot of money to bring on a 35-year-old defenseman who, at best, can hold his own in a bottom-pair role at this point in his career. Sure, you can retain some of that salary, but then that’s just even more assets spent on a player type that you could find on the trade deadline market with a contract half that price that would probably fill the role better than Schenn.

Dan Vladar, Calgary Flames

Vladar is in his fourth season with the Calgary Flames, and he’s managed to hold down the backup goalie role for most of his career there. Whether that was playing behind Jacob Markstrom, or playing in a 1A/1B tandem with Dustin Wolf before Wolf eventually eclipsed him and became the clear cut starter, Vladar has managed to stick around in Calgary up to this point.

However, with Wolf establishing himself as the starter, it makes sense for the Flames to finally move on from Vladar, especially if they want to get some future assets at this year’s trade deadline without taking too much away from the team as they simultaneously fight for a playoff spot and rebuild. But, will he be that much more of an upgrade for most teams in need of goaltending?

First off, acquiring a goaltender this late into the season rarely works out for the contending team. It takes a while for a goaltender to adjust to a new team with new systems, and they usually don’t make that adjustment by the time the playoffs come around. The time to make a move for a goalie was in November or December, like when the Colorado Avalanche made the moves that they did to revamp their goalies.

On top of that, Vladar hasn’t really proven to be a goaltender that can play at the level a playoff team would hope for. In his four seasons with the Flames, he’s never finished the year with a positive goals saved above expected, and across all four seasons, he has a -22.85 GSAx, the seventh-worst mark among goalies in that span. Is that all that much of an upgrade over Stuart Skinner and Calvin Pickard for the Edmonton Oilers or Frederik Andersen and Pyotr Kochetkov for the Carolina Hurricanes?

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Get ready, hockey fans! The Daily Faceoff Deadline is happening on March 7th from 11 AM to 4 PM Eastern, and you won’t want to miss it. We’ll be LIVE, breaking down every trade and big move as it happens, with instant reactions and expert analysis from the Daily Faceoff crew. Plus, we’ve got special guests lined up throughout the show, offering exclusive insights from some of the biggest names in the game. From blockbuster trades to surprise moves, we’re covering it all. Tune in to the Daily Faceoff YouTube channel and follow Daily Faceoff socials on March 7th to catch all the action!