Can Auston Matthews still win the 2024-25 Rocket Richard Trophy?

Toronto Maple Leafs center Auston Matthew

Credit: Dec 2, 2024; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Maple Leafs forward Auston Matthews (34) gets set on a face-off against the Chicago Blackhawks during the third period at Scotiabank Arena. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images

One year ago, Auston Matthews woke up on Dec. 4 with 16 goals to his name. He’d snagged three hat tricks in his first 11 games. He was scoring at an NHL-best 60-goal pace and would finish with 69 — the most since Mario Lemieux three decades earlier.

Fast forward a year and much has changed for the mustachioed sniper.

Matthews missed nine November games with an upper-body ailment, featuring a mysterious specialist visit in Germany. He wears the captain’s ‘C’ now, the torch passed by John Tavares in the offseason. And while the Leafs are doing their regular season thing with a 15-7-2 record, they’re doing it differently. Under Craig Berube, famously no-nonsense, it’s stingy defense and strong goaltending carrying a mediocre offense.

But what’s changed the most is that Auston Matthews has scored only six goals.

For any other player, today’s question would never be asked. But this isn’t any other player… it’s the world’s greatest goal scorer. Can Auston Matthews still win his fourth Rocket Richard Trophy this season?

🔨 The Task at Hand

Now, absent a crystal ball, we don’t know how many goals are needed to lead the NHL. In the four seasons before the pandemic, the NHL leader averaged 49 goals. Sidney Crosby won the 2016-17 Rocket by scoring just 44 times. That total only got you a tie for 10th last season.

Today’s NHL is much different. In the last three seasons, the best non-Matthews goal totals: Sam Reinhart (57, 2023-24); Connor McDavid (64, 2022-23); Leon Draisaitl (55, 2021-22). That’s an average of 59 goals.

Yes, it’s a great time to be an NHL superstar. High power play conversion rates, record empty net goals, more games settled in 3-on-3 overtime, and low goalie save percentages have made eye-popping scoring feats more attainable.

What makes Matthews’ task so daunting is that he needs to do all of the following:

Outscore Reinhart by 12
Outscore Draisaitl by 11
Outscore Kirill Kaprizov, Brayden Point and Cole Caufield by 10
Outscore Mikko Rantanen and teammate William Nylander by 9
Outscore Kyle Connor, Artemi Panarin, and Tage Thompson by 7
Outscore McDavid and Nikita Kucherov by 6
Outscore recent 61-goal man David Pastrnak by 3
Outscore nine-time Rocket winner Alex Ovechkin — who has a 9-goal lead — when he returns

Oh, and outscore each of the 123 players ahead of him in goals right now… over the remaining 70% of the schedule… after returning from a lingering ailment… while hoping to avoid any residual effects or new injuries. That’s it.

⏮ The Past Injury Comebacks

Compounding Matthews’ challenge is the effect of a nine-game absence. Before his return on Saturday night, he went nearly a full month between action, most of which was spent off the ice entirely.

Let’s take a look at Matthews’ recent goal-scoring history before and after notable injuries:

Date	Injury	Games Missed	20 Games Before	20 Games After
February 2021	Hand/wrist	2	18 goals	14 goals
October 2021	Upper body	3	Missed first 3 games of season	10 goals
January 2023	Knee	5	12 goals	12 goals

What are the takeaways from Matthews’ previous setbacks?

His hand injury in the abbreviated 2020-21 season didn’t derail him at all. He cruised to the Rocket with 41 goals in 52 games, winning the trophy by eight goals. His knee injury in January 2023 didn’t change his fortune either — he scored at a 49-goal pace before and after.

But there might be some juice from Fall 2021 after Matthews missed the Leafs’ opening three contests. Papi cruised to the MVP and Rocket with 60 goals in only 73 games. But he was slow to get going, scoring seven times in his first 17 games. Afterward? He went nuclear: 53 goals in 56 games, a nightmare-inducing 19.3% shooting percentage.

This may offer some insight that Matthews could be slow out of the gate in his return. On Saturday, he had two assists and two shots in a win over Tampa. On Monday, he scored a slick breakaway goal on three shots hosting Chicago. But as Matthews reminded everyone, it’s only been a few weeks away.

Auston Matthews confirms that he still knows how to play hockey 😅 pic.twitter.com/u3jVNqRYZE

— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) November 30, 2024

🎯 The World’s Best Sniper

Now that we know what he’s up against, let’s explore what Matthews is capable of. I hope you’re sitting down as his spiciest stretches of play can cause knee buckling.

By returning on the weekend, it gave Matthews 60 games to make a rush for the Rocket. Below are his best 30 and 60-game stretches from the last five seasons — the Sistine Chapel of sniping when it comes to ceilings.

Don’t adjust your glasses. In the last two decades, only McDavid (50 in 2023-24) and Ovechkin (51 in 2007-08) have cracked 50 in 60 at any point in a season. But in two of the last three seasons, Matthews scored 55 times in a 60-goal span. That would get him to 60 and make the goal crown probable. In each of those years, Matthews also had a stretch of 33 goals in 30 games. Want to get back in a scoring race? Just do that.

But Matthews also has a few things working against him…

First, these are his best stretches. He’s averaged about 44 goals per 60 games the last five years. That’s a 60-goal pace… over 82 games. So, Average Auston won’t cut it — 44 in his last 60 would land him 49 in the maximum 73 games he can play.
At 5-on-5, Toronto’s generating a vanilla 2.38 xGF/60 (expected goals per 60 minutes) per Natural Stat Trick — tied for 19th in the NHL.
Their power play (19.5%) is below NHL average. A huge explosion could be in store soon though, their underlying metrics suggest they should be in the top handful of teams.
The Leafs’ depth remains tested. Max Domi is still out. Bobby McMann has been down for a week, while Max Pacioretty and David Kampf remain out. Calle Jarnkrok is sidelined long-term.

🆚 The Competition

What can we expect from the usual suspects in the goals race?

Using a simple weighted average covering the current year-to-date results and the two full seasons prior, we can get a quick projection of the 13 players most likely to score 40 goals this season.

Rank	Player	Projected Games	Projected Goals
1	Brayden Point	78	53
T2	Kirill Kaprizov	81	51
T2	Sam Reinhart	82	51
4	Leon Draisaitl	82	50
5	Mikko Rantanen	82	48
6	Auston Matthews	73	47
T7	William Nylander	82	44
T7	Connor McDavid	79	44
T9	Artemi Panarin	82	42
T9	Tage Thompson	77	42
T11	David Pastrnak	82	41
T11	Nathan MacKinnon	82	41
T11	Nikita Kucherov	81	41

[Through December 3, 2024]

Matthews is right there. Despite missing nine games, he’s still projected to finish sixth in goals and flirt with 50. But the biggest red flag is that these are average results for the superstars above. One or more are likely to have that perfect season — power play success, empty netters, puck luck — and outperform their baseline.

It leaves Matthews with no room for error.

🚨 The Answer

So, can he win his fourth Rocket by age 27?

It’s going to take one of the best stretches of sniping in the last 20 years. And he’ll need some help. Red-hot Reinhart’s shooting percentage needs to finally regress. Point and Kaprizov need to settle. Draisaitl and McDavid can’t perform at their top gears or one of them will score 55. And Rantanen and MacKinnon need to wear under the weight of a thin team.

As always, Matthews will remain unfazed. He knows he’ll be judged in April, not December. Yet, scoring 50-plus goals in 60 games is, incredibly, in his repertoire. My best guess? Auston goes on a signature run in a few weeks that lasts for months. Let’s give him 48 over his last 60 to finish with 53, falling a handful of goals behind a star in the field who has a career year in goals and enjoys full health.

As fans, we love a good scoring heater. How fun will it be if Matthews makes a push?

Follow @AdjustedHockey on X; visit www.adjustedhockey.com; data from Hockey-Reference, NHL.com

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