Projecting the 2025 Hall of Fame Class: Thornton, Chara headline five potential first-ballot picks

Credit: Apr 26, 2022; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Florida Panthers center Joe Thornton (19) during the second period against the Boston Bruins at TD Garden. Mandatory Credit: Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports

Seven new Hall of Famers were formally inducted as the Class of 2024 on Monday evening. You could argue the class was more steak than sizzle. Salary cap era stars Pavel Datsyuk and Shea Weber were first-ballot choices. They were joined by longtime American holdovers Natalie Darwitz, Krissy Wendell, and Jeremy Roenick — each previously passed over for more than a decade. On the Builder side, hockey lifers David Poile and Colin Campbell, each now in their 70s, completed the group.

Sizzle won’t be an issue in 2025. Just twice in history have four first-ballot players been inducted — the Classes of 2007 and 2009. But we could potentially see five first-ballot choices in June — one female and the max four male players. Whom might the Selection Committee choose in 2025?

Consider this tiered list of candidates.

FIRST-BALLOT WORTHY

Joe Thornton

Jumbo Joe headlines the Class of 2025 — a prodigious playmaker, larger than life personality and NHL fixture from age 18 to 42. Sixth all-time in games played (1,714), only Gordie Howe, Chris Chelios, and Mark Messier outlasted Thornton’s 24 seasons. Adjusting for scoring era, he’s fourth in assists and eighth in points all-time. Stunning. But limiting Thornton’s brilliance to career totals would mask an exceptional peak — he was the 2005-06 MVP and scoring champion, his first of three consecutive assist crowns. Exiled from Boston, Thornton would become a San Jose icon and one of the greatest to never lift the Stanley Cup.

Zdeno Chara

Has there ever been a more uniquely dominant force than Chara? A 6’9″ behemoth, he arrived to North America as a novelty — a gangly, unpolished, long-term project. By the time he retired at 45, his résumé tells the story: Norris winner, seven-time year-end all-star, most games played by a defensemen (1,680), and the longest-tenured European captain ever (14 years in Boston). A feared presence and all-situations stud, Chara was just the second Euro to captain a Cup winner after Nicklas Lidstrom – and still the only Slovakian.

Duncan Keith

I’d flirted with leaving Keith in the next tier as a surefire Hall of Famer not needing immediate induction. Why? The long-time Blackhawk had a well-deserved rep as a versatile gamer that every GM dreamed of acquiring. Both his basic (106 career goals) and advanced stats (above-average rather than elite defensively) don’t scream Hall of Famer, however. But as one of only six active players named to the NHL’s nostalgic 100 Greatest Players in 2017, an irreplaceable weapon on three Cup teams, plus two Norris Trophies, a Conn Smythe Trophy and two Olympic golds, Keith is likely to cruise to immortality. Few would rate 2024 first-ballot choice Shea Weber ahead of Keith.

ONLY A MATTER OF TIME

Brianna Decker

If Decker were held to the NHL standard, artists would already be sketching her face for the plaque room. In IIHF World Championship play, her 1.55 points-per-game is first among those debuting since 2000 (minimum 25 games). On top of an overflowing team trophy case, Decker’s personal hardware includes a Patty Kazmaier Award at Wisconsin, three World Championship all-star nods, plus Rookie of the Year, League MVP, and two Playoff MVPs in pro circuits. But aside from inaugural female inductees Angela James and Cammi Granato in 2010, only Hayley Wickenheiser has been first-ballot. With the max two women finally inducted for the first time in 14 years, maybe the Selection Committee is reading my articles. Kidding aside, Decker fights a long backlog of qualified women.

Carey Price

Price’s career in the Montreal spotlight was fascinating. PPS — my Hall of Fame worthiness metric — has Price at 303 versus a standard of 295. Slightly above. At his best, he was the NHL’s most feared goalie — an unflappable brick wall living rent-free in the skulls of the opposition. His mythical stretch from 2013 to 2017 far exceeds a typical Hall of Fame peak: a .928 save percentage, MVP, Pearson, Vezina, plus a 10-0 record across the Sochi Olympics and World Cup. But there were down years mixed in. That Stanley Cup never arrived. And Price’s last full season came at just 32 years old. Statistically, it’s difficult to separate his career from that of Ryan Miller or Tomas Vokoun. But Price in top form was universally deemed peerless and the Hall should call sooner than later.

OTHER NOTABLE FIRST-TIMERS

Ryan Getzlaf

Getzlaf is a classic borderline case. You can find lesser forwards elected, but several better ones still wait. Guys like Getzlaf usually get the call… eventually. His career is eerily similar to that of Henrik Sedin, who curiously rode twin energy to first-ballot status. Yes, Sedin was a dual Hart/Ross winner, but Getzlaf was runner-up to Sidney Crosby for both awards in his signature 2013-14 season. The Ducks‘ captain added a Cup and an impressive 120 points in 125 post-season games in a low-scoring era. Getzlaf tops longtime teammate Corey Perry 229-226 in PPS, each slightly above the forward standard.

Tuukka Rask

Rask’s case is this: a Vezina winner that’s fourth all-time in the regular season (.921) and ninth all-time in the playoffs (.925) in save percentage. But Rask also played in an extremely favorable time for goalies and on defensively strong Bruins’ teams. With proper context, he’s only 27th in the cap era using Evolving-Hockey‘s goals saved above expected — more Kari Lehtonen than Carey Price. With just 564 career games, PPS puts him in the Hall of Very Good tier with contemporaries Tim Thomas and Pekka Rinne.

P.K. Subban

Subban’s notable as a daring and dynamic talent and Norris winner in the shortened 2013 lockout year. But as famous as he was in the spotlight of an Original Six franchise, there’s no credible Hall path for #76. Subban’s career faded fast — he was just 28 during his last impact season.

Jason Spezza

A teenage prodigy, Spezza was a magical playmaker who scored at a point-per-game clip over 11 seasons in Ottawa. While his Sens fell short of a Cup, Spezza tied for the playoff point lead (22) in their exciting 2007 run. Not a Hall of Famer, but a career to be proud of.

Other first-timers: two-time Cup-winning captain Dustin Brown; Vezina winner and recordholder for most wins (48) in a season Braden Holtby.

THE PEOPLE’S PICKS

Alexander Mogilny

There’s not much left to say about Mogilny that hasn’t been said. I’ve long called him the Hall’s most glaring omission, which you can read about here. In PPS, he’s #2 among excluded forwards and that’s before you factor his impactful defection from the Soviet Union. It’s gotten so out of hand that documentaries are being made about the situation. I’m not kidding… I was featured in it.

Jennifer Botterill

With the Selection Committee correcting course and electing Darwitz and Wendell this cycle, you’d think Botterill is next for tidying oversights. I dove into her case before and her candidacy remains compelling.

Henrik Zetterberg

Many figured Zetterberg would join longtime Detroit running mate Datsyuk this year. It didn’t happen. Without context, Hank’s totals look light: 337 goals, 960 points. But adjusted to era, he scored at an exceptional 79-point pace for his career. A Triple Gold club member and Conn Smythe winner, Zetterberg isn’t Datsyuk but has a strong Hall of Fame case.

Patrick Marleau

Marleau famously holds the NHL record of 1,779 games. Yet, there’s undisputed acceptance that he was never truly elite. While Marleau’s candidacy doesn’t excite me, my thinking has evolved from a discussion with Jeff Marek on his radio show last year. Marek noted that former players — which comprise 10 of the 18 members of the Committee — hold the utmost respect for anyone that can last that long in pro hockey. PPS says he’s +3 over the standard and a near match to Dave Andreychuk. Have to imagine he gets in eventually.

Rod Brind’Amour

While I’m not on Team Rod as a player, the people do love The Bod. Is that revisionist history now that he’s an excellent badass coach? Probably. I dove into this phenomenon here. The Hall’s by-laws don’t allow for blending careers, but if Rod fell a little short on the ice, should we all wink and nudge the goal posts? Tough questions. Would love to see him elected as a Builder for his overall hockey life one day.

PREVIOUSLY OVERLOOKED

Curtis Joseph: In PPS, Cujo is the #1 most overlooked goalie, exceeding the standard by +32. With Tom Barrasso and the dicey selection of Mike Vernon in 2023 further covering 1990s goaltending, has Joseph missed the boat? For me, he’s the hockey version of baseball’s Tim Raines.

Keith Tkachuk: Roenick’s induction has to help Tkachuk’s future chances. Tkachuk’s playoff record is ugly, but he sniped at a neutral era 39-goal pace for his career — 10th all-time among 1,000-game club members. He’d have a Rocket Richard Trophy had the award been created two years earlier.

Sergei Gonchar: He’s got the highest PPS among eligible blueliners — tied with Chara in fact — at a position that remains underrepresented in the Hall. I dove into Gonchar’s case last year as the face of a generation whose excellence was lost to the Dead Puck Era.

Shannon Szabados: Of twelve women in the Hall, only one (Kim St-Pierre) is a goaltender. Szabados played against men at the junior, college, and pro levels and has a case for best female goalie of all-time. While she never officially retired, she last played in 2019, meaning 2025 will be her fourth year of eligibility.

John LeClair: I’ve went to bat for LeClair before. Over a six-year window from 1995-2000, he scored at a 48-goal pace in an offensive graveyard. That same output scaled to Glenn Anderson’s prime? Seasons of 58, 65, 67, 77, 64, and 58 goals — a total of 389 goals in six seasons, or 65 per year.

Ryan Miller: Miller in 2009-10 — Vezina, fourth in Hart balloting, Olympic MVP — had something special. By PPS, he’s precisely on the borderline. But with Vezina votes just twice in 18 years, he may never capture the imagination.

Patrik Elias: Another forgotten man from low scoring times, Elias was a quiet, all-around weapon on four Cup finalists. In PPS, he trails only LeClair, Tkachuk, Mogilny, and Theo Fleury among forwards passed on.

BUILDER CATEGORY

By pure logic, someone helped fight through misogyny and red tape to create a platform for women’s hockey over the last 100 years. As a ratio, there are 115 male Builders and 292 male Players, about two Builders for every five Players. If you are a long-time NHL executive, you’re likely a Hall of Famer. But for women, it’s now 12 players but still no Builders. I mean, the women’s game didn’t build itself?

My talented colleague, Matt Larkin, spoke for Fran Rider‘s candidacy in last year’s edition. I’ll suggest Melody Davidson, who won four straight Olympic golds with Team Canada: 2002 (assistant coach); 2006 and 2010 (head coach); and 2014 (director). Davidson was elected to the IIHF Hall of Fame this year.

Predicted Class of 2025

Joe Thornton
Zdeno Chara
Duncan Keith
Carey Price
Brianna Decker
Jennifer Botterill
Melody Davidson (Builder)

Here were my 10-year induction predictions from June.

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