Daily Faceoff mid-season NHL Awards: Hart is a lock, other trophies are not

Credit: Jason Parkhurst-USA TODAY Sports

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The NHL fashions itself an organization that champions the collective over the individual. It doesn’t showcase its stars to the degree a marquee league like the NBA does. But, sheesh, damned if it isn’t the most exciting time for individual NHL stardom in…30 years? This season we have Connor McDavid chasing 150 points, multiple players tracking for more than 60 goals and multiple defensemen on the hunt for 100 points.

It thus makes NHL Awards discussion extra spicy these days. With scoring at a 27-year high and so many players on pace to accomplish astounding things, the competition for hardware will be fierce when ballots are cast this April.

We’ve reached the approximate halfway point of the NHL season, so we at Daily Faceoff figured the time was right to hold a mid-season vote for several prominent NHL Awards. We excluded the Selke Trophy this time, as it’s uber-subjective and requires a large sample size of data to get right. But we had staffers vote on the Hart Trophy, Norris Trophy, Vezina Trophy, Calder Trophy and Jack Adams Award.

The panel:

Frank Seravalli, DFO president of hockey content
Matt Larkin, DFO managing editor and senior writer
Steven Ellis, DFO prospect analyst and associate editor
Mike McKenna, DFO NHL analyst
Brock Seguin, DFO Fantasy managing editor
Nick Alberga, Leafs Morning Take host and DFO fantasy writer
Jason Gregor, DFO Rundown podcast co-host and Nation Network writer

The scoring system: three points for a first-place vote, two points for a second-place vote and one point for a third-place vote. Voters submitted their top three choices for each award. Onto the results:

HART TROPHY (most valuable player)

1. Connor McDavid, Oilers (21 pts)
2. Tage Thompson, Sabres (8 pts)
3. Jason Robertson, Stars (7 pts)

Also receiving votes: Sidney Crosby, Leon Draisaitl, Jack Hughes, David Pastrnak

So I lied when I said the competition was fierce for every award. The Hart is the exception. Voters like to get cute some years when McDavid gets pushed by another player extremely valuable to his team, but No. 97 has simply been too dominant to render that argument valid this season. He’s on pace to be the NHL’s first 150-point scorer since 1995-96. He leads the NHL in goals, assists and points. No player has won the NHL’s unofficial ‘Triple Crown’ since Mario Lemieux in 1995-96. At 5-on-5, when McDavid is on the ice, the Oilers outchance their opponents 404-328, good for a plus-76 differential. Without him, their chance differential is minus-59.

So McDavid has it on lock – despite some incredible work this season from the gargantuan, unstoppable unicorn that is Tage Thompson, almost willing the Buffalo Sabres back into contention, and the Dallas Stars’ Jason Robertson, who has arguably been the most consistently dominant scorer after McDavid this season. Robertson has only been held off the scoresheet eight times in 42 games and is on pace to threaten the Dallas Stars/Minnesota North Stars franchise records for goals (55, Brian Bellows) and points (114, Bobby Smith) in a season.

NORRIS TROPHY (best defenseman)

1. Josh Morrissey, Jets (11 pts)
T-2. Rasmus Dahlin, Sabres (10 pts)
T-2. Erik Karlsson, Sharks (10 pts)

Also receiving votes: Adam Fox, Cale Makar

What a hotly contested category this was. The late-blooming Josh ‘Norrisey’ gets the slight nod over Dahlin and Karlsson. Morrissey has been crucial to the Jets’ resurgence. In half a season, he’s beaten his career high in points by nine already, tracking for more than 90. Only one defenseman averages more 5-on-5 primary assists per 60 and only two average more points per 60…

…Which makes Morrissey’s victory a mild surprise here. If we’re judging him for his amazing offense? Karlsson’s has been better. He leads D-men in 5-on-5 points and primary assists per 60. He’s been the best offensive blueliner in the NHL, easily, and his defensive metrics have been better than Morrissey’s, who has graded out so-so in that regard.

To inject the opinion of one voter, a.k.a. me, in here: Adam Fox got robbed. He received my first-place vote. He has been the most impactful blueliner in the league overall at both ends of the ice – to the point he even deserves some fringe Hart consideration.

VEZINA TROPHY (best goaltender)

1. Linus Ullmark, Bruins (19 pts)
2. Connor Hellebuyck, Jets (14 pts)
3. Ilya Sorokin, Islanders (7 pts)

Also receiving votes: Jake Oettinger

The consensus was strong on the Vezina in that only four netminders received votes at all. The three finalists represent three schools of thought. Ullmark has been the best overall performer, leading the league in goals saved above average per 60 and save percentage at 5-on-5. He’s had a dominant team playing in front of him, however.

Hellebuyck is the workhorse, posting the best numbers of his career while, as always, ranking among the league leaders in starts, shots faced and minutes played.

Sorokin? He’s the talent, elevating a New York Islanders team that has become sloppy in its own end since removing Barry Trotz as head coach.

Among 27 goalies with 1,000 or more minutes played at 5-on-5 this season, Ullmark has the third easiest workload in terms of expected goals against per 60. Hellebuyck and Sorokin have the eight and ninth hardest.

If the vote came a few weeks later, would Juuse Saros have gotten more consideration? The diminutive Preds stopper has been on fire for the past month or so and his workload grades out as the league’s third-toughest.

CALDER TROPHY (best rookie)

1. Matty Beniers, Kraken (17 pts)
2. Logan Thompson, Golden Knights (15 pts)
3. Pyotr Kochetkov, Hurricanes (4 pts)

Also receiving votes: Mason McTavish, Calen Addison

Beniers has been the most consistently effective rookie scorer in the league, so he hasn’t relinquished his Calder Trophy frontrunner status since the start of the season, but it’s not like he’s running away with the honor. Not even close. If the Golden Knights’ Thompson hadn’t faltered after a stellar October and November, he’d be leading the race. On the flip side, Kochetkov has built momentum as the season progresses. The question is whether he’ll play enough in the second half to be a Calder threat, as Freddie Andersen will soon return from injury and, between him, Antti Raanta and Kochetkov, only the rookie is waiver exempt.

The door isn’t closed at all on another rookie swooping in to steal the award, of course. The Anaheim Ducks’ McTavish is really starting to find his footing, and our prospect analyst Steven Ellis is extremely bullish on his second-half outlook.

JACK ADAMS AWARD (coach of the year)

1. Jim Montgomery, Bruins (20 pts)
T-2. Bruce Cassidy, Golden Knights (6 pts)
T-2. Lindy Ruff, Devils (6 pts)

Also receiving votes: Rick Bowness, Dave Hakstol, Rod Brind’Amour

The Bruins just completed the most dominant first half in…NHL history? They were the fastest team in almost 70 years to win 30 games in a season. That was despite (a) a lack of splashy roster additions during the offseason and (b) starting the season without No. 1 defenseman Charlie McAvoy and top left winger Brad Marchand as they worked their way back from offseason surgeries. If the team is playing this well despite looking similar on paper to last year’s and starting the season shorthanded, the credit has to go to Montgomery, right? He was the most noteworthy offseason acquisition.

The Golden Knights appeared to have gotten worse on paper over the summer, losing Max Pacioretty (trade) and Robin Lehner (injury), and yet Cassidy, whom they hired days after the Bruins fired him, has Vegas leading its division. ‘Sorry Lindy’ chants rung out at Prudential Center as the same Devils found their footing and became dominant under Ruff this fall despite running back much of the same group, at least at forward.