Has the clock struck midnight on Maple Leafs goaltenders Matt Murray and Ilya Samsonov?

Credit: © David Kirouac-USA TODAY Sports

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What is it about the January air in Toronto that makes goaltenders go a little…nutty?

That was Matt Murray Thursday night during his Toronto Maple Leafs’ downright strange 5-1 loss to the Seattle Kraken, in which the second-year franchise was barely present with three shots in the first period but rallied during a deflating second period in which Murray surrendered four goals on just 12 shots.

The first came on a seeing-eye Eeli Tolvanen point shot on the power play that deflected off Leafs blueliner Mark Giordano. Fair enough. It was a tough puck to track. But the second? Defenseman Vince Dunn Nerf balled a weak shot at a screened Murray, it handcuffed him, and he allowed one of his softest goals in a Leafs sweater. Shortly after Jared McCann roofed a no-doubter on a breakaway that wasn’t Murray’s fault, he lost composure. Jostling with rookie center Matty Beniers in front of his net, Murray became preoccupied and aggressively shoved Beniers out of his crease. As a result, Murray stopped tracking the play momentarily. His feet weren’t set by the time the puck ended up on Beniers’ stick, and he beat Murray with a low wrister that Murray saw all the way.

“It just comes down to a stretch in the second period where if I make an extra save or two to keep us in the game, it goes a lot different,” Murray said.

He allowed one more goal in the third and heard the Bronx cheer from the home fans more than once. Uh-oh.

One poor start from a goaltender who entered Thursday’s contest with a stellar .920 save percentage in 14 games isn’t reason for handwringing. But consider the context. It marked the fourth time in Murray’s past six appearances that he posted a save percentage below .900. A relatively small slump isn’t cause for concern with an established star, but consider (a) that “slump” actually comprises 40 percent of Murray’s sample size this season because of time missed due to injury and (b) any struggles have to be taken seriously for a goaltender who had lost his way since his Stanley Cup winning days in Pittsburgh, posting an .899 SV% and ranking 73rd (!) in 5-on-5 goals saved above average per 60 in the three seasons preceding this one.

Murray’s sudden struggles spike the blood pressure even more when juxtaposed with his crease partner Ilya Samsonov’s. He’s fallen below a .900 SV% in four consecutive starts, a stretch in which his confidence has seemingly evaporated. During his shootout defeat to the St. Louis Blues Tuesday, he was alarmingly beatable, with more holes than Bonnie and Clyde’s car.

By the end of November, the Maple Leafs sat sixth in team save percentage. Today, they’re 13th. It calls to mind scary flashbacks of Jack Campbell’s roller coaster last season. By American Thanksgiving he was considered the Vezina Trophy frontrunner by most. His game fell off so much that the Leafs ended up with some of the weakest goaltending numbers in the league between Campbell, who fought through a second-half rib injury, Petr Mrazek and Erik Kallgren. The Leafs’ franchise record 115 points came in spite of their goaltending last season. They might have won the Presidents’ Trophy with even mediocre puck-stopping. And while Campbell had his moments during the Leafs’ seven-game defeat to the Tampa Bay Lightning in Round 1 of the playoffs, he couldn’t outduel Andrei Vasilevskiy, couldn’t make that save, and it cost Campbell a chance to re-sign as a UFA.

Which brings us back to the Murray/Samsonov experiment, for which GM Kyle Dubas has been largely praised all season. Suddenly, the armor’s integrity is in question. Is there an explanation for why? The answer isn’t an easy one to get given the Leafs play things close to the vest with their coaching staff, including goaltending coach Curtis Sanford. The in-game usage of Murray and Samsonov has been curious, though, in that coach Sheldon Keefe has outright refused to make switches during poor performances, sticking strictly to the rotation between the two. He didn’t even go to Samsonov, who had two days between starts, after Murray delivered the worst period by a Leaf goaltender this season. Keefe admitted after the game he considered the switch but wanted to give Murray the chance to fight through a bad night.

“I mean, we needed to get a big save from him, right?” Keefe said. “But he doesn’t get much action at all in the first period. And on that power play, not much happening…goes off a shin pad and in. And the second one he was screened on that one…there were some funny goals going in there, but we need our players in the first period to make a big play, take control of the game, and you need your goaltender to make a big save, give us life too. We didn’t get that.”

So what happens next? Maybe nothing. The Leafs won’t look to Kallgren or the piping-hot Joseph Woll unless another injury strikes. Maybe the sudden struggles of Murray and Samsonov are a temporary and, unfortunately, simultaneous blip between two talented goaltenders who seemed to have things figured out for a couple months. Their teammates are quick to defend them.

“Matt’s been great,” said defenseman Morgan Rielly. “Power play goal, there was a 2-on-1, there was a breakaway, it’s not on him. He’s been great for us all season long. As individuals we have to return the favor and take care of him.”

But in a do-or-die season with no contract in place for 2023-24, Dubas has to keep the Campbell debacle front of mind. Dubas can’t afford to be nice. If the bleeding continues for another month, it might be time to re-evaluate the team’s short-term plans as the trade deadline creeps closer. Toronto hasn’t had a goaltender who can put the team on his back and steal games since Ed Belfour two decades ago. Dubas needs to decide if Murray or Samsonov can be that guy.

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Has the clock struck midnight on Maple Leafs goaltenders Matt Murray and Ilya Samsonov?

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