Dallas Stars vs. Edmonton Oilers: 2024 Stanley Cup playoff series preview and pick

Edmonton Oilers center Connor McDavid and Dallas Stars center Wyatt Johnston

Credit: © Jerome Miron

Dallas Stars: 113 points, 1st in Central, def. COL in Round 2 (4-2)
Edmonton Oilers: 104 points, 2nd in Pacific, def. VAN in Round 2 (4-3)

Schedule (ET)

Date	Game	Time
Thursday, May 23	1. Edmonton at Dallas	8:30 p.m. ET
Saturday, May 25	2. Edmonton at Dallas	8 p.m. ET
Monday, May 27	3. Dallas at Edmonton	8:30 p.m. ET
Wednesday, May 29	4. Dallas at Edmonton	8:30 p.m. ET
*Friday, May 31	5. Edmonton at Dallas	TBD
*Sunday, June 2	6. Dallas at Edmonton	TBD
*Tuesday, June 4	7. Edmonton at Dallas	TBD

The Skinny

While the late 1990s and early 2000s have plenty of rivalries that get more of a spotlight when strolling down memory lane, the Stars and Oilers have a bit of ancient history from those days. In fact, these teams have only met six times in the playoffs, and all six times came in a seven-year span between 1997 and 2003, with the Stars winning the last five. The Oilers also faced the Minnesota North Stars twice, so there’s a bit more to the rivalry, but that was all we saw of those teams since the Stars moved to Dallas. But we haven’t seen these two teams square off since that stretch… until now.

Outside of the Oilers’ 2-9-1 start to the season and replacing head coach Jay Woodcroft with Kris Knoblauch, there weren’t really any notable storylines with either of these two teams this season that would surprise the average hockey fan based on the preseason expectations. In fact, if you told hockey fans in September that this was the Western Conference Final, I don’t think anyone would object to it. The Stars looked like a deep team and lived up to that expectation by cruising with little issues to the top seed in the West, and once the Oilers figured things out, they rolled to second in the Pacific and probably would have gotten first if not for the slow start.

The only difference in their storylines is how they got here once the playoffs began. The Oilers had about as easy of a path as one can have, drawing arguably the weakest team in the first round in the Los Angeles Kings before barely getting past a Vancouver Canucks team running their third-string goalie in net. On the other hand, the Stars had an unenviable first two rounds, facing the two previous Stanley Cup champions and finding a way to win both. Now both teams find themselves in reversed roles: the Stars are the favorites to win while the Oilers are the slight underdogs that would be in tough to get past a deeper matchup.

Head to Head

Dallas: 2-0-1
Edmonton: 1-2-0

The Stars had the upper hand in the regular season, taking two of the three games and seeing the lone loss come in overtime. You can probably put an asterisk on the first win as it came during the Oilers 2-9-1 stretch when they weren’t quite themselves, but at the same time, the other win almost counts for double since it came after the deadline and was the lone matchup between both teams with the rosters they have going into this series. Fittingly for Dallas, different players led the way offensively in each game (Roope Hintz and Joe Pavelski in Game 1; Matt Duchene, Thomas Harley and Mason Marchment in Game 2; and Radek Faksa, Wyatt Johnston, Craig Smith and Sam Steel in Game 3), while they also contained the Oilers’ two-headed monster of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl to a combined three assists in the three games.

Top Five Scorers

Dallas

Miro Heiskanen, 13 points
Jason Robertson, 12 points
Wyatt Johnston, 11 points
Jamie Benn, 8 points
Tyler Seguin, 8 points

Edmonton

Leon Draisaitl, 24 points
Connor McDavid, 21 points
Evan Bouchard, 20 points
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, 16 points
Zach Hyman, 13 points

X-Factor

While Johnston has gotten a lot of the headlines for the Stars’ run this season and is probably the current favorite on the team to win the Conn Smythe, I’d argue that no one has been more valuable than Chris Tanev. Dallas’ big deadline addition has paid off in spades for them so far, not only providing them with more depth and allowing them to push weaker options like Ryan Suter down the lineup, but he’s also shut down the opposing teams’ top stars so well that you might need to come up with a new word to describe how well he did.

In Round 1 against the Golden Knights, Tanev played 46:34 against Jack Eichel, with Dallas outscoring Vegas 3-0 in those minutes. Against the Avs in Round 2, Tanev played 68:43 against Nathan MacKinnon, and once again, the Stars won those minutes 3-1. That play is vital to the Stars’ success as he will probably get a lot of minutes against McDavid and Draisaitl. Even containing those two will be a victory, but if Tanev can somehow win those minutes, the Oilers have almost no chance of winning this series.

Offense

Depth, depth, depth. That’s the word everyone uses to describe the Stars, especially with their offense. They only had one player above 70 points this year (Robertson with 80), but they had eight players score at least 20 goals this season and 10 players with at least 45 points, and it’s thanks to the latter numbers that the Stars had the third-most goals in the regular season (294) and the eighth-best 5v5 expected goals for per 60 minutes (2.81).

The goals have cooled down a bit in the playoffs, scoring just 2.92 per game (7th in the league), but the process is still there with the fourth-best 5v5 expected goals per 60 in these playoffs with 2.62. For their personnel, it’s the same story as the regular season. They’re the only team in the Conference Finals that don’t have a player in the top 10 in scoring, but they also have seven players with at least three goals and nine with at least six points in the playoffs.

Where the Stars offense has thrived is the consistent turnover. If one line isn’t scoring, there’s still two others that can carry the load on top of any of the other depth pieces on the team that can chip in offensively from time to time (it was Faksa that scored the series-winning goal in Round 1 after all). It’s what allows them to be without a player like Hintz for half the series and not miss a beat. And on the odd occasion that all three lines are clicking, it’s almost a guaranteed win. It’s what alleviates any concern of them not having the big guns to match up with McDavid or Draisaitl, because they can just try to contain them as much as possible and then win the matchups by a wide margin when they’re off the ice. Even then, they still have players that can play at that offensive caliber like Robertson, Hintz, Johnston and Heiskanen; they just also like to focus on their two-way game.

It’s a good thing the Stars already know how to deal with top-heavy offenses, because the Oilers are about as top-heavy as it gets. You don’t talk about their offense without first talking about McDavid and Draisaitl, the two highest scoring players for who knows how long. McDavid is the modern day Wayne Gretzky, and then come playoff time, Draisaitl also turns into prime Gretzky, and whether these two are on different lines or on the same line, they’re a nightmare to matchup against.

They have a bit more help offensively than they’ve had in past seasons, largely coming from the other three players that man their top power play unit. Hyman surprised the hockey world with 50 goals, Nugent-Hopkins took a slight step back after a 104-point season last year, and Bouchard is the first Oilers’ defenseman not named Paul Coffey to finish above a point-per-game in a season. Together all five players are firing at above a point-per-game in the postseason, and they’re a big reason why the fourth-best offense and power play in the regular season have the second-best offense and best power play so far in the post season.

But there’s a reason why they don’t go farther every year, and it’s because of the drop off beyond those five players. So far this postseason has seen Edmonton get occasional contributions from Evander Kane and Mattias Ekholm, but otherwise no other player has more than four points, and only Dylan Holloway and Cody Ceci have more than one goal. Even with new additions like Adam Henrique and Sam Carrick, they just haven’t received a lot of offense beyond the big five, and while they’ve gotten away with it so far, it will be a lot tougher against a Stars team as deep as this one. Even if the Oilers’ top players outscore their minutes, it still might not be enough in this series.

Defense

The Stars defense is a tough nut to crack. I mentioned how their depth makes them a struggle to play against offensively, but it’s not different defensively. They have plenty of excellent options to shut down their opponents, and more importantly, they have very few weak links for teams to target, and that depth allows them to spread them out. Only Duchene, Pavelski and Tyler Seguin have been “bad” defensively, and while the Stars have usually opted to pair Seguin and Duchene together in these playoffs, they’ve been able to shelter that line so that they can focus on generating offense, while Pavelski has usually been paired with one of their stronger defensive players like Robertson or Johnston.

It’s even worked out that their better defensive players have worse metrics than their bad players. The likes of Robertson and Hintz and Heiskanen and Tanev will eat the tough minutes and allow their lesser players to thrive. Even a player who struggled in past years like Suter has found a new gear in a lesser role.

It’s why they’re tied for the third fewest goals against per game in the post season with 2.38 (with only the Nashville Predators and Vegas Golden Knights ahead of them), and are second in 5v5 expected goals against with 2.16 (with only the Washington Capitals ahead of them). It’s so tightly knit that they have no issues against deep rosters (see their first round matchup against the Golden Knights) or elite players (see the second round against the Avalanche). They have enough options that they can pick the right tools for the job no matter the challenge.

The Oilers have had a reputation of being a being a team that thrives offensively at the expense of their defense, and while they’re no early 2000s New Jersey Devils, they’re much better in that regard this season. Their 2.88 goals against per game in the regular season and 3.36 in the playoffs don’t scream defensive stalwarts, but their 5v5 expected goals against per 60 minutes in the regular season (2.47) and the playoffs (2.38) at least goes to show that it wasn’t entirely on their team offense.

A big reason their defense has improved has been because of the addition of Ekholm at the 2023 trade deadline. It’s finally given Edmonton an elite shutdown defenseman, and his play alongside Bouchard has allowed them to be one of the best defense pairings in the league. Bouchard is no slouch defensively either outside of being prone to The Big Mistake™ from time to time. On top of that, McDavid has also elevated his defensive play from previous seasons, so when the top line and top pairing on the ice together, it’s an overwhelming matchup for any team at both ends.

Most of the remaining players are at least competent defensively, but this team isn’t without its glaring concerns. Draisaitl continues to struggle defensively once again, but he can at least make up for it with his offensive ability. Kane hasn’t nearly been as successful, so when he isn’t scoring, he’s an anchor in the lineup. But no problem was worse than Edmonton’s other top four pairing of Ceci and Darnell Nurse. That duo was inconsistent in the regular season and has been eaten alive in the playoffs, and it certainly left some vulnerabilities matchup wise. Knoblauch separated that pairing closer to the end of Round 2 and it worked out, but if they find themselves together again against Dallas, they won’t really have a chance to hide against the Stars’ offensive depth.

Goaltending

At the Stars’ end of the ice, there’s no doubt who will be in the crease. While Jake Oettinger‘s playoff performances have been a bit inconsistent over his career, ranging from the highs of the 2022 series against the Calgary Flames to the lows of the 2023 postseason, Dallas has gotten a much more consistent version this season.

Oettinger has had a save percentage below .920% in just four of his 13 games played this postseason, and on the playoffs as a whole, he has a .918% save%, just .001% above his playoff career totals. He only has a 3.05 goals saved above expected at all strengths, but at 5v5, he’s the best in the league with 7.67. This Stars team is good enough as it is, but during the moments where they falter, he’s just another obstacle for the other team to deal with before finally scoring.

On the Oilers’ end, it’s safe to say that there is a bit more doubt. Stuart Skinner established himself as the starter and provided steady goaltending for the team during the regular season (outside of a rough start to the season when the rest of the team struggled). But come playoff time, he has been nowhere near the level he was at, with his .881% save percentage in the playoffs second worst only to Connor Hellebuyck among goalies with at least five starts in the playoffs.

It eventually got to the point where Skinner couldn’t be trusted to just simply be good enough to get the win behind the Oilers’ offense against the Canucks, and it’s why they briefly pivoted to Calvin Pickard in net. Skinner was better in their Game 6 and 7 wins (although he only faced 32 shots combined in those two games), so it’s possible that he’s turned it around, but this definitely remains the biggest advantage for the Stars.

Injuries

The Stars lost Hintz early on in Game 4, and the center did not return for Game 5 or Game 6. He’s currently listed as day-to-day so he could very well be ready to play Game 1, but we still don’t know exactly when he’s coming back. Other than that, Jani Hakanpaa has been out for just over two months, and considering how much Pete DeBoer doesn’t like their sixth defenseman options in Nils Lundkvist or Alex Petrovic based on their ice time in the playoffs, I’d imagine that he’ll get into the lineup when he’s healthy.

For the Oilers, they’re currently only missing Henrique, who has been out of the lineup since Game 1 against the Canucks. There were points in the series where he seemed close to returning, perhaps indicating that he could be back soon against the Stars.

Intangibles

The Stars have an almost perfect blend of veteran leadership and youthful wonder to their team that really benefits them. Even with some of their older players like Suter and Pavelski seeing better days, their elite drafting has given them an almost unfair amount of young options to insert into the lineup around them.

Those veterans also provide them with the always great vibes of having an old guy without a cup, and they have a bunch of them: Pavelski, Suter, Benn, Tanev, Duchene and Evgenii Dadonov. Even if you don’t love some of those players, there’s probably at least one that you can get behind to finally see win a Cup.

For the Oilers, it’s a tale as old as time: can the team with the core of high-end players finally get it done? The question plagues pretty much any top-end team that doesn’t win in their first few years of contention, and they always seem to not know how to win until they just end up winning one time and then they’re proven winners (see: Alex Ovechkin, Steve Yzerman).

In the McDavid era, the Oilers have at best gotten swept in the Western Conference Final and at worst had playoff outings that make the Toronto Maple Leafs look poised (remember when they lost to the 2019-20 Chicago Blackhawks in the bubble?). Is this the season when they finally make noise past the first two rounds? If it isn’t, how much more patience do some of the big name players have in Edmonton? An actual blowup doesn’t seem overly likely, but it feels like the threat of it is looming from a distance like the White Walkers in early Game of Thrones seasons.

Series Prediction

When I completed my bracket for the playoffs this year, I had the Oilers winning the Cup, which included beating the Stars in the Western Conference Final. At the time, it felt like the teams were close enough under the hood that a duo like McDavid and Draisaitl would tip the scales in their favor.

However, in the two rounds we’ve seen so far, the Stars have reached a completely different level. They’ve won in different ways against different teams, and proven that they can handle anything they face. Meanwhile, the Oilers have been fine, but their losses usually feel like it’s been by tripping over themselves, and they can’t afford to have those same slip-ups against a stronger team like Dallas. And it’s also a story we’ve seen before: Edmonton’s offense looks unstoppable until they play a team deep enough to make McDavid and Draisaitl look human, and then the rest of the team can’t make up the deficit. I think it will still be super close, but the Stars might be the best team left in these playoffs, never mind the best team in this series.

Stars in seven games.

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