Do you still need an established stud goaltender to win a Stanley Cup?
Building a contender at the NHL Trade Deadline isn’t as simple as checking off a shopping list of must-have ingredients for a Stanley Cup recipe.
But what if it was?
Over the past few years at Daily Faceoff, using the previous 10 NHL seasons as my case-study subjects, I developed a list of traits that were most common among the Stanley Cup winners. I came up with seven. And voila, the Stanley Cup ingredients series was born.
So far, we’ve explored the correlation factor of average team weight and having at least one top-10 scorer in the league. Next up, we turn our gaze toward the net. Given NHL goaltender is the most random position in pro sports, do you really need to enter the playoffs with an elite one? Or are you just as likely to go all the way with an also-ran who goes on a hot run?
Stanley Cup Ingredient #3: Top-10 Goalie
Just one goaltender has won the Conn Smythe Trophy as playoff MVP in the past 11 years. In the 11 seasons before that, five goalies won it. Last season, neither of the No. 1 goaltenders clashing in the Stanley Cup Final – Adin Hill nor Sergei Bobrovsky – had even opened the postseason as his team’s starter. When someone like Hill can go on the incredible run he had, must contenders still concern themselves over entering the playoffs with an elite No. 1? Let’s see how many of the past 10 Stanley Cup champs checked that box.
We’ll define a “top-10 goaltender” as someone who played at least half his team’s games and posted a top-10 save percentage in the league. The exception is Jordan Binnington; he joined too late in 2018-19 to play half the St. Louis Blues’ games, but he was pretty much the best goalie in the league from January onward, so it would feel wrong to exclude him.
| Season | Champion | Top-10 Goaltender? |
| 2013-14 | Los Angeles | No |
| 2014-15 | Chicago | Yes (Crawford, .924) |
| 2015-16 | Pittsburgh | Yes (Fleury, .921*) |
| 2016-17 | Pittsburgh | Yes (Murray, .923) |
| 2017-18 | Washington | No |
| 2018-19 | St. Louis | Yes (Binnington, .927*) |
| 2019-20 | Tampa Bay | Yes (Vasilevskiy, .917) |
| 2020-21 | Tampa Bay | Yes (Vasilevskiy, .925) |
| 2021-22 | Colorado | Yes (Kuemper, .921) |
| 2022-23 | Vegas | No |
Stanley Cup correlation: STRONG
The correlation factor was incredibly strong going into last season. The 2015-16 Marc-Andre Fleury inclusion feels cheap given Matt Murray was the playoff starter, but the two “No” years featured a former Conn Smythe winner in Jonathan Quick and a former Vezina Trophy winner in Braden Holtby backstopping their teams.
Vegas broke a streak in which seven of the previous eight champions had a stud top-10 goaltender. It may not feel like it given Hill had a playoffs for the ages and has since established himself as one of the top goalies in the league. But it would be revisionist history to claim he was held in that regard a year ago. He was battling Logan Thompson, Laurent Brossoit and Quick for work. Brossoit, filling in for injured Logan Thompson, who was filling in for injured Robin Lehner, opened the postseason as Vegas’ starter. Hill only got the nod when Brossoit joined the others in the infirmary. Hill had never played a single minute of NHL postseason hockey before entering the crease in Round 2 against the Edmonton Oilers.
Vegas defied the odds and won the Cup with a netminder who sat as low as fourth on his team’s depth chart at various points in the season. But was that a one-year anomaly? We’ll still consider the top-10 goalie correlation strong unless another team wins it all without an established star in net this season.
How does the playoff field shape up for 2023-24? Here’s the leaderboard of netminders meeting the aforementioned requirements of playing half their teams’ games so far and placing top 10 in save percentage, through March 12’s games.
2023-24 NHL leaders, save percentage (min. half teams’ games played)
1. Connor Hellebuyck, WPG, .922
2. Jeremy Swayman, BOS, .920
3. Joey Daccord, SEA, .919
4. Sergei Bobrovsky, FLA, .918
5. Thatcher Demko, VAN, .917
6. Cam Talbot, LA, .916
7. Igor Shesterkin, NYR, .914
8. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, BUF, .914
9. Charlie Lindgren, WSH, .912
10. Pyotr Kochetkov, CAR, .911
Seven of the top 10 compete on playoff teams. The list includes three Vezina Trophy winners in Hellebuyck, Bobrovsky and Shesterkin. It’s also worth noting Hill would easily crack the leaderboard but, because he’s battled injuries this season, he hasn’t played enough games.
Even if the correlation between a stud goalie and a winner has weakened slightly, it’s still important to have good goaltending, even if it’s by committee. Each of the top seven teams in the NHL in save percentage occupies a playoff position at the moment.
Which contenders should be the most worried entering the spring? The Dallas Stars and Colorado Avalanche haven’t gotten the saves they did last year from Jake Oettinger and Alexandar Georgiev, respectively. The Carolina Hurricanes and Toronto Maple Leafs have endured roller coasters but might peak at the right time with the likes of Frederik Andersen and Joseph Woll getting healthy. As for the Edmonton Oilers? Close your eyes, spin the wheel and hope the good version of Stuart Skinner shows up in the postseason this time.
Previous instalments of Stanley Cup Ingredients 2024
Next up: Shot attempt share
_____
Discover Betano.ca – a premium Sports Betting and Online Casino experience. Offering numerous unique and dynamic betting options along with diverse digital and live casino games, Betano is where The Game Starts Now. 19+. Please play responsibly.
_____
Recently by Matt Larkin
- More often than not, you need a superstar scorer to win a Stanley Cup
- For Stanley Cup contenders, the beefier the better
- 2024 NHL Trade Deadline Winners and Losers: Long live the Golden Knights’ evil empire
- ‘I love him to death.’ Trade to Sabres reunites Bowen Byram with close friends Cozens, Krebs
- As the Pittsburgh Penguins’ ship sinks, don’t expect Sidney Crosby to abandon it