For Stanley Cup contenders, the beefier the better

Matt Larkin
Matt Larkin(MLarkinHockey)
For Stanley Cup contenders, the beefier the better
Credit: Nicolas Hague (© Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports)

Building a contender at the NHL Trade Deadline isn’t as simple as checking off a shopping list of must-have ingredients for a Stanley Cup recipe.

But what if it was?

Over the past few years at Daily Faceoff, using the previous 10 NHL seasons as my case-study subjects, I searched for traits that were most common among Stanley Cup winners. I came up with seven, and voila, the Stanley Cup Ingredients series was born. It wasn’t as easy as identifying all the positive things you can do in a hockey game and saying, “Do those and you’ll win the Stanley Cup.” For instance: a strong power play might correlate to regular-season success, but it doesn’t to playoff success. It thus doesn’t make the cut in my recipe.

Today, we begin the third annual edition of Stanley Cup Ingredients, an eight-part series. The game, of course, is always evolving. Every year, the 10-season sample shifts by a year, and the correlations between specific traits and championships can strengthen or weaken.

First up, we look at team size. It’s about weight, not height. Heavy wins.

Stanley Cup Ingredient #1: Team Weight

The brand of hockey in the postseason is consistently tougher than that of the regular season. Teams built to withstand the physical grind, and the lack of penalties called compared to during the regular season, are more likely to go all the way. Last year, the Vegas Golden Knights were, surprise surprise, the heaviest team in the NHL, tipping the scales at an average of 205 pounds.

Using the team comparison data from Elite Prospects, here’s how the past 10 Stanley Cup winners ranked in their respective seasons in average player weight:

SeasonChampionAvg. WeightLeague rank
2013-14Los Angeles209 lbs3rd
2014-15Chicago198 lbs28th
2015-16Pittsburgh195 lbs30th
2016-17Pittsburgh194 lbs30th
2017-18Washington204 lbs6th
2018-19St. Louis203 lbs5th
2019-20Tampa Bay203 lbs4th
2020-21Tampa Bay204 lbs2nd
2021-22Colorado199 lbs14th
2022-23Vegas205 lbs1st

Stanley Cup correlation: VERY STRONG

We saw a brief shift between 2015 and 2017 when the smallest teams in the league, the Blackhawks and Penguins, were winning with speed and skill. Then the 2017-18 Capitals smashed through the drywall and realized they could be big and skilled. Amazingly, five of the past six Stanley Cup winners ranked among the six heaviest teams in the NHL.

So, who is bringing the brawn in 2023-24? Here are the NHL’s 10 heaviest teams at the moment.

2023-24 NHL leaders, average team weight

1. Vegas Golden Knights, 209 lbs
2. New York Islanders, 204 lbs
3. Boston Bruins, 202 lbs
4. Edmonton Oilers, 202 lbs
5. New York Rangers, 202 lbs
6. Montreal Canadiens, 202 lbs
7. Tampa Bay Lightning, 202 lbs
8. Dallas Stars, 202 lbs
9. Winnipeg Jets, 201 lbs
10. Toronto Maple Leafs, 201 lbs

Nine of the 10 heaviest teams in the NHL currently occupy playoff positions, and six of those teams rank among the top 10 in the league’s overall standings. The Golden Knights have already given us plenty of reasons to fear them after going wild at the trade deadline with high-profile acquisitions Anthony Mantha, Noah Hanifin and Tomas Hertl. And now, looking at the data, we see they outweigh the second-heaviest team in the NHL by five pounds per player on average? Gulp.

One ingredient down, and so far, it looks like Vegas is well positioned to defend its title.

Next up: Top-10 scorers
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