Expert fantasy hockey mock draft: Rounds 1-3

Matt Larkin
Matt Larkin(MLarkinHockey)
Mikko Rantanen for Caesars Sportsbook promo code 5.13
Credit: Mikko Rantanen (© Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports)

The mock fantasy draft: deceivingly useful to read. On the surface, it might appear skippable. Why should you care about my draft? But mocks in many cases can help you more practically than reading rankings can. A mock gives you a look inside the trenches, helps you identify moments when you might see runs on certain positions. If you know your own draft slot in advance, you can follow along with whoever picks in that same spot for a sense of who might be available to you at each turn.

That’s why I’ve decided to share the results of a fantasy mock draft in which I’m currently participating. Yes, currently. It’s a “slow draft,” with a minimum of just one pick made per day. The field: a murderer’s row of fantasy hockey experts. FTN Network’s Chris Meaney played the role of Nick Fury, assembling the team.

Here are the players, in order of draft slot:

1. Eric Young, FTN Network
2. Pete Jensen, NHL.com
3. Nick Alberga, NHL.com/Daily Faceoff
4. Kenneth Lee, FTN Network
5. Anna Dua, NHL.com
6. Matt Larkin, Daily Faceoff
7. Neil Parker, Sportsbook Review
8. Jesse Blake, SDPN Sports
9. Shayna Goldman, The Athletic
10. Chris Meaney, FTN Network
11. Dom Luszczyszyn, The Athletic
12. Dimitri Filipovic, The Hockey PDOcast/EP Rinkside
13. Michael Clifford, DobberHockey
14. Drew Livingstone, SDPN Sports

The format: Head-to-Head, with the following scoring categories: Goals, Assists, PPP, SOG, Hits, Blocks, Wins, GAA, SV%

The roster breakdown:

C
C
C
LW
LW
LW
RW
RW
RW
D
D
D
D
Skater
G
G
Bench x 4

Let’s review the draft so far:

ROUND 1

1. Connor McDavid, C
2. Leon Draisaitl, C/LW
3. Nathan MacKinnon, C
4. Auston Matthews, C
5. Jack Hughes, C
6. Mikko Rantanen, C/RW
7. Matthew Tkachuk, LW/RW
8. David Pastrnak, RW
9. Nikita Kucherov, RW
10. Brady Tkachuk, LW
11. Kirill Kaprizov, LW
12. Jason Robertson, LW
13. Elias Pettersson, C/LW
14. Cale Makar, D

Overall thoughts

Round 1 mostly went as planned. No staggering surprises here – except that I wouldn’t have taken Auston Matthews so early. With his inability to play more than 75 games a year, give or take, he has a lower floor than other early first-rounders, as he demonstrated last season.

My pick: Mikko Rantanen, RW, Avalanche (6th overall; my Top 300 rank: 4th overall)

Mikko Rantanen isn’t the most exciting pick in the first round, but he sure is safe. He’s a superstar, smack in his prime, has just delivered a 55-goal, 105-point season and just plays so damn much. More than 22 minutes a game, which really raises the volume floor. Repeat after me: you can’t win your draft in Round 1, but you can lose it. Go safe.

ROUND 2

15. Igor Shesterkin, G
16. Tim Stutzle, C/LW
17. Tage Thompson, C/RW
18. Timo Meier, LW/RW
19. Mitch Marner, RW
20. Roman Josi, D
21. Sidney Crosby, C
22. Alex Ovechkin, LW
23. Ilya Sorokin, G
24. Rasmus Dahlin, D
25. J.T. Miller, C/LW/RW
26. Andrei Vasilevskiy, G
27. Jake Oettinger, G
28. Erik Karlsson, D

Overall thoughts

It’s still mostly a best-available approach this early in the draft. The only name that really popped for me was Tage Thompson at 17th. To me, he’s an easy first-rounder. That’s a steal in Round 2. Erik Karlsson here felt early for me. I can’t see him playing a full season again at 33, and I think he inflated his point total selling out for offense late last season in San Jose when he had little else to play for.

My pick: Ilya Sorokin, G, Islanders (23rd overall; My top 300 rank: 16th overall)

I hummed and hawed a bit here given there were so many other elite goalies still on the board. Given the position is so fickle, any of the top 10 could finish best in class this season. But when I saw my top-rated goalie available seven picks later than my overall rank for him, I had to take the plunge. Ilya Sorokin is a lock to post elite rate stats and his volume floor is higher than ever now that he’s a true No. 1 and not just a 1A to Semyon Varlamov’s 1B.

ROUND 3

29. Juuse Saros, G
30. Adam Fox, D
31. William Nylander, RW
32. Alexandar Georgiev, G
33. Steven Stamkos, C/LW
34. Mika Zibanejad, C
35. Brayden Point, C
36. Artemi Panarin, LW
37. Andrei Svechnikov, LW/RW
38. Kyle Connor, LW
39. Aleksander Barkov, C
40. Evan Bouchard, D
41. Alex DeBrincat, LW/RW
42. Jack Eichel, C

Overall thoughts

A goalie run started here. Everyone began to snatch their No. 1s. Whereas the players picked in Rounds 1-2 all felt like slam dunks to deliver top-28 value, we have more variance here. Will Juuse Saros win enough games? Will a move to third-line center hurt William Nylander’s 5-on-5 scoring? Will Andrei Svechnikov start slowly returning from his ACL injury? What really blew me away here was the Evan Bouchard pick. I love him for this year, but at 41st overall, you’re pricing in the breakout as if it happened already. He has to score 70 points at that spot for you to break even. Gutsy pick!

My pick: Mika Zibanejad, C, Rangers (34th overall; My top 300 rank: 32nd)

It’s fun doing a mock draft while my Top 300 remains an active file which I tweak weekly. I caught myself when I stared down Aleksander Barkov and Zibanejad. I had Barkov ranked one spot higher. When it was time the make the pick, though? I kept thinking about Barkov’s propensity to get nicked up. Zibanejad, on the other hand: one missed game in the last three seasons combined while cracking the top 20 in goals and points. I stabbed Barkov in the pack and picked Zibanejad. I’ll move him ahead of Barkov in my next draft of the rankings. Of course, hours after I made this pick, ‘Z-bad’ got hurt in a training camp scrimmage and is now day-to-day, skating in a red no-contact jersey. Sigh.

More mock draft coverage to come as the slow draft continues in the coming days and weeks…

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