Matt Larkin’s top 10 fantasy hockey sleeper picks for 2023-24

Matt Larkin
Matt Larkin(MLarkinHockey)
Matt Larkin’s top 10 fantasy hockey sleeper picks for 2023-24
Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

If no one sleeps on a sleeper, is a sleeper really a sleeper? Whoa.

That’s the question I try to ask myself every year when drafting up a list of my favorite fantasy hockey sleepers. Is it useful for me to share a name I’m excited to reach on if the average draft position data (ADP) indicates the general public has that player ranked as highly as I do? In my mind, I’m not doing you much of a service by declaring that kind of player a sleeper. I love Seth Jarvis this season, for instance, but so does everyone else, apparently. My ranking is in line with his Yahoo ADP.

To me, a sleeper is a player your draft-day competition actually sleeps on, someone we secretly rank higher than everyone else. Sleepers should outperform their ADPs.

So with that philosophy in mind, I present to you my top 10 sleeper picks for fantasy hockey this season – each of which I’ve ranked significantly higher than their Yahoo ADPs.

(I’ve mostly shied away from rookies here, save for one goaltender. We’re looking for players who have eluded the spotlight of hype for at least a season.)

Bowen Byram, D, Avalanche (ADP: 167.7; My rank: 149th)

I included Byram on my 2023-24 league winners list, but drafters apparently have not taken my advice, letting him slide to the 14th round of 12-team leagues on average. Defensemen with higher ADPs than Byram include Ryan Graves, Erik Gustafsson and Esa Lindell. Um, what? I understand Byram is injury-prone thus far in his career, but at 22, he’s still young enough to shed that label. He has piled up 15 goals and 41 points in 72 games over his past two seasons. He’s a special talent surrounded by other special talent in Colorado. This season should mark your final opportunity to get in on the ground floor.

Joel Hofer, G, Blues (ADP: Undrafted; My rank: 298th)

Admittedly, touting Hofer is a sleeper is as much a vote of non-confidence for Jordan Binnington as it is a Hofer recommendation. Binnington’s save percentage trend since his epic, Stanley Cup winning rookie campaign of 2018-19: .927, .912, .910, .901, .894. He has devolved into one of the weakest, least consistent starting goaltenders in the NHL. The next lengthy, tantrum-filled slump is always just around the corner and will provide Hofer a window to take over. He’s a big, rangy 6-foot-5 netminder coming off an excellent season in the AHL, and he outplayed Binnington in a small sample size at the NHL level last year. The Blues have proven willing to let other goaltenders swoop in and outplay their starters in the recent past; Binnington usurped Jake Allen in 2018-19, after all, and Ville Husso did the same to Binnington two years ago. Hofer’s time could be next.

Kent Johnson, LW, Blue Jackets (ADP: undrafted; My rank: 223rd)

I sometimes wonder if the Michigan Goal works against Johnson, relegating him to an “all flash” reputation, the kind that followed around Robbie Schremp and Sonny Milano when they transitioned to the NHL. Johnson does have absolutely filthy mitts, but he’s also a multi-talented young player who scored 16 goals in his age-20 season – while counting the plateauing Jack Roslovic and lost Cole Sillinger as his most common linemates. The 2023-24 Blue Jackets are healthier and much more talented on paper than last year’s team and I’m projecting Johnson to play with Adam Fantilli and Kirill Marchenko at the moment. You could turn major profit on Johnson given his current ADP is, well, free.

Dawson Mercer, RW, Devils (ADP: 150.7; My rank: 122nd)

Most exciting about Mercer’s excellent sophomore season: the leaps from 17 to 27 goals and 42 to 56 points came with virtually the same average time on ice, meaning there’s room for more if Mercer sees something in the range of 18 minutes a night instead of the 16:34 he logged last season. Mercer, 21, toils in what might be the most fantasy-friendly Eastern Conference environment. He carries first-round pedigree. All his play-driving metrics at 5-on-5 improved in Year 2. On such a stacked Devils team, however, he’s hidden behind Jack Hughes, Jesper Bratt, Timo Meier, Nico Hischier, newcomer Tyler Toffoli and more. Perhaps that’s why the ADP is surprisingly low for someone who could easily go 30-40-70 this season. Mercer will likely open the season on a line with Meier and Hischier. Yes, please.

Tommy Novak, C, Predators (ADP: undrafted; My rank: 209th)

The ultimate Who Is This Guy waiver pickup helped plenty of teams on championship chases last season. But that’s just it: he did his damage in the stretch run, when many fantasy GMs were out of the hunt, so his late explosion went relatively unnoticed, hence the undrafted ADP. But this wasn’t some 10-game hot streak; Novak had 35 points in his final 36 games. The Preds did bring in center Ryan O’Reilly as a UFA, but O’Reilly is more useful for his two-way play at this juncture of his career. With Ryan Johansen dumped to Colorado, Novak will compete with Cody Glass for the role of Nashville’s top puck-distributing pivot. There’s a very real possibility Novak ends up the team’s top scorer among the forward group and centers the No. 1 power-play unit.

Cole Perfetti, LW, Jets (ADP: undrafted; My rank: 258th)

Perfetti entered last season with a decent amount of helium. He was Winnipeg’s top forward prospect, expected to snatch a top-six role. He mostly did that, scoring at a 48-point pace, but injuries limited him to 51 games. It appears casual drafters are overlooking him because the season stat line of 8-22-30 doesn’t pop. Having bought out Blake Wheeler and traded Pierre-Luc Dubois this offseason, the Jets need some of their young players to step up in larger roles, and Perfetti has a great opportunity to do so. It’s difficult to envision him not securing top-six work, and while Winnipeg isn’t as deep as it was a year ago, it still has talented players to sprinkle on its first two lines, meaning Perfetti would have good company.

J.J. Peterka, LW, Sabres (ADP: undrafted; My rank: 275th)

The Sabres have so many exciting young forwards that it’s difficult to keep track of them all. The feisty Peterka potted 12 goals in his first full NHL season, which flew under the radar on a team watching Tage Thompson and Dylan Cozens bust out. Speaking of the Cozens bust out…remember in 2021-22 when he dominated at the World Championship, then parlayed that confidence boost into a breakthrough in the NHL? Peterka piled up six goals and 12 points in 10 games for Germany last spring. He has the inside track on a top-six role with Jack Quinn on the mend to start the season. While Peterka might qualify as more of a deep-league sleeper than a must-grab player in shallow leagues, he might be one of the cheapest 20-goal players you can find in your draft.

Evan Rodrigues, RW, Panthers (ADP: undrafted; My rank: 189th)

With Anthony Duclair in San Jose now, a spot opens up in Florida’s top six. It will likely be filled by UFA signee Rodrigues, a player with an excellent work rate joining a team with an excellent work rate. Among 382 forwards with at least 500 minutes played at 5-on-5 last season, he ranked 71st in shots per 60, nestled between Alex DeBrincat and Valeri Nichushkin. If Rodrigues takes Duclair’s spot on a line with Carter Verhaeghe and Aleksander Barkov: bet on Rodrigues beating his career highs of 19 goals and 43 points.

Yegor Sharangovich, RW, Flames (ADP: undrafted; My rank: on the bubble)

The Devils just got too good, too fast. When a team loads up like they have, some mid-tier talents get squeezed out, and Sharangovich was a casualty in the Tyler Toffoli trade. Sharangovich could rebound into an important role on a Calgary team looking to replace Toffoli’s sniper touch, however. Sharangovich, 25, is just a season removed from potting 24 goals. His slipped to 13 last season, but that was with a career-low shooting percentage of 9.9. Positive regression + a probable role increase = a recipe for Sharangovich to bury 20 to 25 goals for his new team.

Pavel Zacha, C, Bruins (ADP: 166.8; My rank: 135th)

It feels strange calling Zacha a sleeper. Wasn’t he a sleeper last season? Didn’t the breakout already happen? Yet the ADP tells me he’s being overlooked and that too many people are writing off the Bruins entirely because they lost so many good players this offseason. Don’t forget, while the departures hurt the Bruins as a whole, they open up opportunities for certain players. Zacha is the team’s de facto No. 1 center now. He will likely remain with his all-world linemate in 61-goal man David Pastrnak, so it’s easy to imagine Zacha matching or exceeding his 57-point breakout from last season.

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