Fantasy Hockey: The Perfect Draft from the No.12 Spot
Going into your Fantasy Hockey Draft with a plan is critical to making sure you leave with a Championship calibre team.
You can stare at projections all pre-season and print off my Top-300 rankings, but you need to know who to target in each round to avoid taking players in rounds you shouldn’t.
You may not have the time to dig through all of the ADPs (average draft position), so I’m here to help you plan whether you have the first overall pick or the 12th pick. Over the next week, I’ll release the “Perfect Draft” at each position, so you have targets in each round. Using Yahoo’s ADPs you can project who will be available at each draft spot.
I’m using the following format:
- 12 Teams
- 16 Round Snake Draft
- Lineup: C, C, LW, LW, RW, RW, D, D, D, D, G, G, BN, BN, BN, BN
- Skater Scoring: Goals, Assists, Power-Play Points, Shots on Goal, Plus/Minus, Hits
- Goalie Scoring: Wins, GAA, SV%, Shutouts
Previous Perfect Drafts
- The Perfect Draft from the No.1 Spot
- The Perfect Draft from the No.2 Spot
- The Perfect Draft from the No.3 Spot (coming soon…)
- The Perfect Draft from the No.4 Spot (coming soon…)
- The Perfect Draft from the No.5 Spot (coming soon…)
- The Perfect Draft from the No.6 Spot (coming soon…)
- The Perfect Draft from the No.7 Spot (coming soon…)
- The Perfect Draft from the No.8 Spot (coming soon…)
- The Perfect Draft from the No.9 Spot (coming soon…)
- The Perfect Draft from the No.10 Spot (coming soon…)
- The Perfect Draft from the No.11 Spot (coming soon…)
- The Perfect Draft from the No.12 Spot
(12) Round 1, Pick 12: Jack Hughes (C/LW)
It was easy to spot Hughes’ breakout last season, but he exceeded expectations, posting 43 goals and 56 assists (99 points) in 78 games. While he carries an ADP of 12.0, be prepared for him to go earlier than No.12. Tage Thompson would be a fine consolation prize if Hughes doesn’t drop to you. What makes him so intriguing is the C/LW eligibility. Hughes’ shot volume (336 shots in 2023) was top-5 in the NHL and will allow him to maintain 40 goals and will put him on 50 watch in 2024. Meanwhile, his 11.9 on-ice SH% and 78.9 IPP are right in line with what we saw from him in 2022, so there’s no sign of regression in his assist totals. Hughes is an easy pick in the late first round, as he will likely be a top-5 pick next year.
Others to consider: Tage Thompson
(13) Round 2, Pick 1: Cale Makar (D)
Makar can put up point totals that very few defensemen can. Injuries have been Makar’s biggest issue, but it’s a little easier to take that risk this season. He’s been a top-5 pick in recent years but is dropping to the 1-2 turn in 2023-24. Over the last two seasons, he’s missed 27 games (16.4 percent) but has averaged 27 goals and 64 assists (91 points) per 82 games. Makar is one of the reasons I like being in the 12-spot this year because you could have two top-5 picks if you’re lucky enough to land Hughes and Makar, as ADP suggests you might.
Others to consider: Tage Thompson
(36) Round 3, Pick 12: Kyle Connor (LW)
Last season was relatively disappointing for Connor, who was selected in the early third round. He’s dropping toward the back of the fourth round this year, but I’m not concerned about taking him where he went in 2022-23. After a 93-point season in 2021-22, you expected more than 31 goals and 49 assists (80 points) last season, but there’s still reason to believe he can be a 40-plus goal, 50-plus assist player this season. From 2018 to 2022, Connor shot 15.4 percent but converted at just 11.4 percent last year. Positive regression to his SH% will have him back over 40 goals this season, and he’s showcased in back-to-back seasons that he can register close to 50 assists.
Others to consider: Roman Josi, J.T. Miller, Juuse Saros, Rasmus Dahlin
(37) Round 4, Pick 1: Aleksander Barkov (C)
Getting Hughes or Thompson will determine your direction in the fourth round. If you get Hughes, Barkov is an easy selection. You can slot Hughes in at LW and get Barkov as your No.1 centre. If you end up with Thompson, there are better strategies than grabbing two strict centres in the first four rounds.
Barkov has missed 15 and 14 games in the last two seasons but has put up impressive point totals while in the lineup. Barkov has averaged 38 goals and 63 assists (101 points) per 82 games, showcasing his upside if he stays healthy. Barkov went from an ADP of 13.6 last year to 56.9 this year, which doesn’t make sense. But that’s good news for you; use it to your advantage.
Others to consider: Roman Josi, J.T. Miller, Juuse Saros, Rasmus Dahlin
(60) Round 5, Pick 12: Evan Bouchard (D)
Of the players being drafted in the top 100, Bouchard has one of the highest differences between my ranking (No.38) and his ADP (73.8). After Tyson Barrie was traded last season, Bouchard finished the regular season with 19 points (5G / 14A) in his final 21 games, averaging 20:54 TOI. He was even better in the playoffs, collecting 17 points (4G / 13A) in 12 games. In total, he had nine goals and 27 assists (36 points) in 33 games without Barrie on the roster. The Oilers power-play should continue to roll at a historic clip in 2023-24, and Bouchard should reap the benefits of being one of the focal points on that unit. Barrie averaged 31 PPP per 82 games in his three years with the Oilers, so you can expect at least a 20-point jump for Bouchard. He has as much upside as any defenseman and could be a league-winning pick from anywhere between the fifth and seventh rounds.
Others to consider: Miro Heiskanen, Andrei Svechnikov, Filip Gustavsson
(61) Round 6, Pick 1: Alex DeBrincat (LW/RW)
DeBrincat is coming off of a relatively disappointing season, scoring just 27 goals with 39 assists (66 points) in 82 games. This summer, he was traded to the Detroit Red Wings, where he figures to line up with Dylan Larkin on the top line. The Michigan native is a prolific goal-scorer who needs his 10.3 SH% from 2023 to bounce back closer to the 15.5 percent he shot from 2018 to 2022. No disrespect to Shane Pinto, but the Josh Norris injury last season left DeBrincat without a high-end centre to play with; he’ll get that with Larkin this season. It’s easy to project 40-plus goals with 35-plus assists for DeBrincat, who will also chip in around 100 hits.
Others to consider: Miro Heiskanen, Andrei Svechnikov, Filip Gustavsson
(84) Round 7, Pick 12: Jordan Kyrou (C/RW)
Kyrou’s ADP has been climbing throughout the preseason, and for good reason. He scored 37 goals with 36 assists (73 points) last season, and his role is expected to grow even more in 2023-24. Kyrou quietly ranks tied for 38th in the NHL with 148 points (64G / 84A) in the last two seasons. A season ago, we saw his shot volume jump from 2.5 SOG/gm to 3.4/gm, putting him among the league’s best. With minimal depth on the wings in St. Louis, it’s reasonable to expect Kyrou’s ATOI (18:00) to climb in 2024. He’s built a solid floor, but the ice-time is vital to unlocking a high-end ceiling.
Others to consider: John Carlson, Kris Letang, Evander Kane, Sam Reinhart
(85) Round 8, Pick 1: Tristan Jarry (G)
It looked like the Penguins would move on from Jarry in the offseason but ended up bringing him back and moving Casey DeSmith (to MTL but now with VAN). Jarry was decent in 2022-23, going 24-13-7 while posting a 2.90 GAA and .909 SV%. He’s been inconsistent from year to year but has showcased high-end ability in 2020 (.921 SV%) and 2022 (.919 SV%), so there’s mid-round upside for him to be a strong No.1 fantasy option at a discount (he’s currently the No.17 goalie off the board). The Penguins added some impressive pieces (Erik Karlsson, Ryan Graves, Reilly Smith, Lars Eller) in the offseason and should be back in the playoff mix in the Eastern Conference, making Jarry a strong bounce-back candidate. The 28-year-old has averaged 54 starts per 82 games over the last three seasons.
Others to consider: John Carlson, Kris Letang, Evander Kane, Sam Reinhart
(108) Round 9, Pick 12: Jacob Markstrom (G)
Markstrom and the Calgary Flames, as a whole, were incredibly disappointing last season. Markstrom went 23-21-12 with a 2.92 GAA and .892 SV% after being selected in the third round of fantasy drafts (ADP: 30.2). As a result, he’s plummeting down draft boards this fall and is a bounce-back candidate. Dustin Wolf is coming, but if he becomes a full-time NHLer this season, he won’t supplant Markstrom as the Flames’ No.1 option. The veteran should still be a workhorse this season on a team that should play more to their potential. Despite their struggles, Calgary was still one of the better defensive teams in the NHL, so Markstrom should have plenty of support to try and return to his 2022 form. As a 9th-round pick and your No.2 goalie, this is a low-risk/high-reward selection.
Others to consider: Kris Letang, Noah Dobson, Drew Doughty
(109) Round 10, Pick 1: Travis Konecny (RW)
Konecny had his first 30-30 season in 2023, despite missing 22 games. Konecny was on pace to obliterate his previous career-high in shots on goal (261), giving him 40-plus goal upside if he stays healthy and maintains the 16.2 SH%. Of the players who had at least 25 assists last season, Konecny had the fourth-highest primary assist percentage (76.7%), trailing only Leon Draisaitl, Clayton Keller and Sebastian Aho. That makes his 41-assist pace easily maintainable this year and gives him tremendous upside if the Flyers improve and allow him to pick up more secondary assists–his seven were the third-fewest among players with at least 25 assists.
Others to consider: Kris Letang, Noah Dobson, Drew Doughty
(132) Round 11, Pick 12: Patrik Laine (LW/RW)
The Matthews or Laine debate feels like it was eons ago, and while Laine hasn’t lived up to the hype from when he was a teenager, he may be one of the biggest fantasy steals of the 2024 season. Injuries are the main issue with the 25-year-old. He’s missed 32.3 percent of the games of the last two years. But honestly, who cares? It’s baked into his 13th-round ADP, and he’s a risk-free pick as a bench winger.
Last season, Laine had 22 goals and 30 assists in 55 games. In two full seasons with the Blue Jackets, he has 48 goals and 60 assists (108 points) in 111 games. If you do the math, that’s a 36-goal, 44-assist pace. He’s an absolute steal at this point in the draft.
Others to consider: Filip Forsberg, Cole Caufield, Owen Tippett, Troy Terry, Mark Scheifele
(133) Round 12, Pick 1: Shea Theodore (D)
Theodore has been a personal favourite of mine for a few years, but I’m still waiting for that true breakout. He’s unquestionably one of the best goal-scorers at the position, potting 55 over the last five years, which is top-10 among defensemen. His assist totals have been solid, picking up at least 30 in four straight seasons and averaging 44 per 82 games. He’s battling Alex Pietrangelo for time on the top power-play unit, but he sees ample PP usage even if Pietrangelo gets the edge. His usage is cemented, and his floor is extremely stable. If he produces at his floor, he’s a great option as your No.3 fantasy defenseman and 12th-round pick. However, his ceiling is elite. Theodore has the potential to score 15 goals with 50 assists, making him a possible league-winning selection.
Others to consider: Filip Forsberg, Cole Caufield, Owen Tippett, Troy Terry, Mark Scheifele
(156) Round 13, Pick 12: Zach Werenski (D)
Werenski missed 69 games last season after suffering a separated shoulder and torn labrum in mid-November. Before getting hurt, he tallied eight points (3G / 5A) in 13 games. Injuries are likely why he’s falling so late into drafts this season, but the upside is impossible to ignore. He’s one of the best and most consistent goal-scorers on the blueline, averaging 16 goals per 82 games throughout his seven-year career. Werenski’s return to the lineup and some off-season acquisitions should help the Blue Jackets be a better offensive team in 2023-24, making Werenski one of the better No.3/4 fantasy defensemen to target in the final few rounds.
Others to consider: Philipp Grubauer, Owen Tippett, Mathew Barzal
(157) Round 14, Pick 1: Nikolaj Ehlers (LW)
Ehlers is the same case as Laine. He’s been on the verge of breaking out for a few years, but injuries have held him back. Ehlers has missed 34.8 percent of the games the last two seasons but has averaged 31 goals and 41 assists (72 points) per 82 games. Ehlers is also coming off a season where he shot just 9.1 percent; he had averaged 12.5 percent since 2017. He also inexplicably played just 15:39 TOI/gm after playing 18:04 ATOI in 2022. Ehlers has been in and out of the start of training camp with neck spams, so it hasn’t been a great start. However, he’s played full seasons three times in his career, so he is capable. If he has a clean bill of health, Ehlers floor feels like 30 goals and 40 assists. He has more upside this late in the draft than anyone else and is worth taking a flier on, even with lingering injury concerns.
Others to consider: Philipp Grubauer, Owen Tippett, Mathew Barzal
(180) Round 15, Pick 12: Barrett Hayton (C)
Hayton is going undrafted right now, and he’s a reason why you can wait to draft centre depth. Last season, he had just 14 points (5G / 9A) in his first 47 games while averaging just 16:03 TOI/gm. After that, he was locked on a line with Clayton Keller and Nick Schmaltz and took off in the second half of the season. Hayton finished with 29 points (14G / 15A) in his final 35 games–a 33-goal, 35-assist per 82-game pace. He broke into the NHL young, so he’s still just 23 years old and should be able to build on that late-season chemistry and success with Keller and Schmaltz. That line has been together throughout training camp, so look for Hayton to hit the ground running as your last-round pick or post-draft free-agent pickup.
(181) Round 16, Pick 1: Gabe Vilardi (C)
Vilardi was selected No.11 overall in 2017 and had a breakthrough in 2023, scoring 23 goals with 41 points in 63 games. This offseason, he was traded to the Jets as a part of the Pierre-Luc Dubois trade and looks like a breakout candidate in 2024. Vilardi has been skating on the top line with Mark Scheifele and Kyle Connor in training camp, so he’s worth taking a flier on with your final pick. Three great goal-scorers on the same line could make some magic.
The Team:
C – Aleksander Barkov (C)
C – Jack Hughes (C/LW)
LW – Alex DeBrincat (LW/RW)
LW – Kyle Connor (LW)
RW – Travis Konecny (RW)
RW – Jordan Kyrou (C/RW)
D – Cale Makar (D)
D – Evan Bouchard (D)
D – Shea Theodore (D)
D – Zach Werenski (D)
G – Tristan Jarry (G)
G – Jacob Markstrom (G)
BN – Patrik Laine (LW/RW)
BN – Nikolaj Ehlers (LW)
BN – Gabe Vilardi (C)
BN – Barrett Hayton (C)