Five NHL players in danger of negative regression in 2025-26

Whether you like it or not, math and luck play a role in hockey. Sometimes players are scoring or stopping the puck at a higher rate than they usually do, and sometimes they’re doing it at a lower rate. Regardless, the bill always comes due, and those percentages swing the other way, unless the player is just that good.

Every year, we see some players produce at a rate that is a big outlier versus the rest of their career, and they hardly ever keep it up. So I thought it’d be a good idea to take a look at some players who overperformed their percentages in 2024-25 and will possibly see those results go the other way next year.

It’s not a guarantee that every player on this list will get worse, especially when percentages don’t play nearly as much of an impact on regression as it used to. But it’s still important to look at and be aware of them, especially if you’re a fan wanting to manage expectations, or a fantasy hockey player looking for players to avoid in this season’s draft.

Before we begin, here are a few honorable mentions:

Darcy Kuemper, Los Angeles Kings – After Kuemper was dealt to the Los Angeles Kings last summer as a salary cap dump, I don’t think anyone envisioned him turning his season around to the point where he was a Vezina finalist. But, he did just that thanks to a .922 save percentage and a +20.91 goals saved above expected, partially do to a strong Kings defensive system. The bad news: his SV% was .007 higher than his career average. The good news: 2023-24 saw him finish .025 below his career average, so last season was just a positive regression (he was a candidate for that in last year’s positive regression list). So, while he won’t be this good next season, expect him to fall closer to his career mark of .915.

Connor McMichael, Washington Capitals – McMichael won’t be the only Washington Capitals player you’ll see today, which you should probably expect from the team that led the league in shooting percentage both at 5v5 and at all strengths. McMichael had just a 10.39% on-ice SH% in his career, compared to a 13.1% rate this season, so expect his overall point production to dip a bit more in 2025-26. Considering that there will be plenty of Capitals expected to regress as well, the fact that his point totals were largely helped because of that on-ice SH% (read: his teammate’s unsustainable performances) will make him more vulnerable to regression.

Anthony Stolarz, Toronto Maple Leafs – Stolarz cracked last year’s edition of this list, as even in his role as a backup for the Florida Panthers, he was putting up phenomenal numbers. He had another fantastic season with a .926 SV% and 25.89 5v5 GSAx while backstopping the Toronto Maple Leafs, and was a big reason they won the division last season. He still outperformed his career SV% by .008, but with back-to-back seasons with a .925 SV% or higher under his belt now, he’s creeping closer to “this is who he is” territory. Of course, the big question is if he can do it in a season with more than 34 games played.

Pierre-Luc Dubois, Washington Capitals

2024-25 Stats: 20 goals, 46 assists, 66 points
What’s the outlier?: On-ice SH% was 4.37% higher than career average

Kuemper is not the only player from the cap-dump swap between the Kings and Capitals in 2024 to make this list, as Dubois also found himself on the luckier side of puck in 2024-25. While it didn’t earn him any notoriety like Kuemper (he got just a second and fifth place vote for the Selke Trophy), it did allow him to eclipse the 60-point mark for the fourth time in his career, and set personal highs in assists (46) and points (66). He still isn’t worth his $8 million cap hit, but the Capitals managed to salvage some value this season after it looked putrid in 2023-24.

Dubois did also get some positive regression from his horrid 2023-24 campaign (which saw him sport an on-ice SH% 2.05% lower than his career rate), but he was definitely luckier in 2024-25 than he was unlucky in 2023-24. That was largely due to the unsustainable offense from the Capitals last season, especially on the second line with McMichael (an honorable mention for this list) and Tom Wilson (who was also considered). We already saw a step back in Dubois’ game in the playoffs (only three assists in 10 games), and expect more of that in 2025-26.

Morgan Geekie, Boston Bruins

2024-25 Stats: 33 goals, 24 assists, 57 points
What’s the outlier?: SH% was 7.4% higher than career average, on-ice SH% was 2.59% higher

Geekie has seen his game take significant strides since joining the Boston Bruins. After a career-high of just nine goals and 28 points prior to his time in Boston, Geekie already showcased that he had more offensive flair with 17 goals and 39 points in a middle-six role in 2023-24, but last season saw that game raised to another level. As the Bruins got worse and sold off more pieces in 2024-25, Geekie found himself alongside superstar David Pastrnak for most of the season, and reaped the reward of 33 goals and 57 points.

Of course, it shouldn’t be a surprise that Geekie benefitted from some luck with that performance. His 22% SH% and 12.94% on-ice SH% were much higher than what he’s usually put up in his career, so that’s a strong indication that his performance isn’t sustainable, at least at this level. That said, the Pastrnak factor does weigh on this a little bit. If Geekie is playing with the star winger, then it’s possible that he can continue to perform like this. But if the Bruins look at him as a player that can drive his own line away from Pasta, I’d expect his play to take a step back.

Vladislav Namestnikov, Winnipeg Jets

2024-25 Stats: 11 goals, 27 assists, 38 points
What’s the outlier?: 47.37% of points were secondary assists

Namestnikov has found new life in his NHL career since joining the Winnipeg Jets, as his back-to-back seasons with 37 and 38 points in 2023-24 and 2024-25 are the most productive years of his career since his time riding shotgun with Nikita Kucherov and Steven Stamkos in 2017-18 with the Tampa Bay Lightning. The performance of the Jets’ second line with Namestnikov, Cole Perfetti and Nikolaj Ehlers helped the Jets to their first Presidents’ Trophy last season, and after two seasons with this line together, it’s clearly paid off for Namestnikov.

Unfortunately, that chemistry is about to be dismantled. Ehlers left in free agency to sign with the Carolina Hurricanes, and with Jonathan Toews joining the fold, there’s a solid chance that Perfetti and Namestnikov will be split up so that one of the two can center the third line. On top of that, there is a bit more unsustainability behind Namestnikov’s performance in 2024-25, as nearly half of his points were secondary assists, compared to only 35.14% in 2023-24. The loss of Ehlers will likely see the Jets as a whole take a step back, but no player may see it impact their game more than Namestnikov.

J.J. Peterka, Utah Mammoth

2024-25 Stats: 27 goals, 41 assists, 68 points
What’s the outlier?: On-ice SH% was 2.98% higher than career average

If there’s any player on this list I could see proving me wrong and demonstrating that their unsustainable performance is just a new gear to their game, it’s Peterka. He’s clearly the most talented player in this group, with 28- and 27-goal seasons under his belt, and he scored them at a sustainable rate based on what we’ve seen from his career. On top of that, he’s the only player changing teams, with the Utah Mammoth trading for him and betting on his performance with a $7.7 million AAV for five years, so it’s possible that a new environment will allow him to thrive even more.

But, there are still some red flags from his 2024-25 season. While his goal totals were sustainable, he did see his assist totals skyrocket after he replaced Jeff Skinner on the Buffalo Sabres’ top line alongside Tage Thompson and Alex Tuch, largely due to 15.1% on-ice SH%. He’s not nearly as much of an aberration compared to other players on this list, and if anything, this may just indicate that he can elevate his playmaking skills when playing with talented players. If that’s the case, that’s something that will come in handy when playing with Clayton Keller, Logan Cooley and Dylan Guenther in Utah.

Aliaksei Protas, Washington Capitals

2024-25 Stats: 30 goals, 36 assists, 66 points
What’s the outlier?: SH% was 9.5% highest than career average, on-ice SH% was 3.58% higher

It shouldn’t be too much of a surprise to see Protas on here considering that he played for the Capitals, but his outlying percentages certainly confirm it. His increase in both SH% and on-ice SH% was one of the larger jumps seen by a player this season, and it should even be clear in his scoring stats that this was the case when he scored 24 more goals and 37 more points than he did in 2023-24. Primarily playing with Alex Ovechkin as he put together an incredible goal-scoring season for his age certainly helped there.

So, like the other Capitals on this list, a slight step back from Protas should be expected, at least in terms of the rate that he and his linemates were shooting the puck. It’s possible that his production may still be able to keep up due to the natural development of a 24-year-old, but I’d also be curious to see how his on-ice SH% fares in a season where there isn’t a historic goal chase for one of his linemates. At the very least, his “unsustainable goal total” was likely just a regression from shooting 5.3% in 2023-24. He may not hit 30 goals next year, but he’ll definitely have more than six.