Five things Maple Leafs must fix to even series with Bruins

Credit: Apr 24, 2024; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Maple Leafs forward Matthew Knies (23) battles with Boston Bruins forward Brad Marchand (63) during the second period of game three of the first round of the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Scotiabank Arena. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports

There’s simply no such thing as a clean, quick, uncomplicated series involving the Toronto Maple Leafs. Drama oozes from this team’s pores. It’s thus no surprise that we’ve seen wild momentum swings so far in their Round 1 matchup with the Boston Bruins. The Leafs’ lack of discipline got the better of them in Game 1. They rallied for a heroic bounceback led by Auston Matthews in Game 2. And they lost focus in a few critical moments to blow Game 3.

Will the pendulum keep swinging back and forth? Or will the Bruins take a stranglehold with another road win Saturday and set themselves up with a chance to close out the series at home in Game 5?

If the Leafs want to keep this series competitive, some important things must change. What are they?

Get the home crowd on their side – early

The Game 3 environment at Scotiabank Arena was…strange. The Leafs faithful popped for the goals and big hits, but they morphed into their morgue-quiet, regular-season selves for long stretches. As Leafs radio play-by-play man Joe Bowen put it, this crowd is reactive. That’s true, but the Leafs also didn’t help themselves when Simon Benoit took a puck-over-glass penalty just 40 seconds into the game. If the Leafs actually want a home-ice advantage in Game 4, they need to come out attacking and decisive while also remaining disciplined. Give your fans something to cheer about early and often.

Juggle the lineup, with or without reinforcements

A consistent criticism of coach Sheldon Keefe during his four postseasons and change behind the Leafs bench has been his inability to make adjustments before it’s too late. Three games into the series, Keefe doesn’t appear to trust his third line of Nick Robertson, Pontus Holmberg and Calle Jarnkrok much; they’ve played fewer minutes than the fourth line of Connor Dewar, David Kampf and Ryan Reaves, which has excelled. While the second line of Matthew Knies, John Tavares and Mitch Marner looked better in Game 3 and contributed a goal, Marner still looks jittery and indecisive with the puck. Is it time to try him for a full game back on the top line with Matthews in hopes of sparking Marner’s confidence? Should William Nylander (migraine) rejoin the lineup, it’ll make one decision for Keefe, as Nylander appears likely to suit up on an all-Swede line with Jarnkrok and Holmberg. But even if Nylander doesn’t return for Game 4, it’s time to juggle.

On defense, T.J. Brodie may draw into the lineup for the first time this postseason, with Timothy Liljegren possibly the odd man out given the fact he skated as the placeholder for new dad Ilya Lyubushkin during Friday’s line rushes. Brodie and Joel Edmundson excelled in their brief look together in the regular season, carrying a 5-on-5 expected goals rate north of 69 percent.

Get desperate with the power play

As a disclaimer: the mere return of Nylander Saturday would qualify as a significant shot in the arm for the struggling power play, especially given his ability to gain the zone with his confident stickhandling. If he isn’t back, however: Keefe has to be willing to get experimental. It doesn’t matter how talented the personnel is: the Leafs are 1 for 11 on the power play in this series.

They are generating more looks than they get credit for, ranking top five in the field of 16 in scoring chances and high danger chances per 60 on the power play this postseason. But they’re converting a pitiful 5.26 percent of their power-play shots on goal. The problem is more the finish than the setup. Is it therefore mental rather than tactical? At this point, the more important takeaway is simply that it’s not working, period. So if Keefe doesn’t have Nylander on the chessboard, why not try someone like Max Domi on the top unit? The Leafs have little to lose.

Sweep the penalty kill under the rug

Let’s talk sample sizes. The Leaf power play, in theory, should be fixable given how successful it was for most of the regular season. The Leafs led the league in 5-on-5 goals and had the NHL’s No. 7 power play. But the penalty kill may be a lost cause this season. Its 76.9 percent conversion rate in the regular season was Toronto’s worst in 14 years. Toronto has allowed a goal on half Boston’s power plays this series. The PK seems likely to remain a weakness, so the best way around that is to keep it hidden by avoiding the unforced, controllable, post-whistle penalties. Don’t hand Boston a gun when you don’t own a kevlar vest.

Be accountable

I won’t accuse Keefe of blaming Game 3 on a blown call when Brad Marchand got tangled up with Tyler Bertuzzi. I brought it up post game, and Keefe merely answered my question. But the idea of Marchand “getting calls” clearly loomed large over Game 3. So did, as Morgan Rielly put it, the notion of “small lapses” in concentration getting to the Leafs. They must accept that, while fickle, the Leafs home crowd remains capable of working itself into a panic after a blown call or even after a Toronto goal. The Leafs have to stay focused in those frenzied moments, just as the Bruins are able to. The Leafs also can’t pin any results on outside forces. They’ve had more power plays than the Bruins in his series. They can’t wait around for a big save from the unpredictable Ilya Samsonov when they’ve topped three goals once in their past 10 playoff games. Toronto knocked out the Tampa Bay Lightning last year thanks to a willingness to go and take the thing they wanted rather than hoping it would be handed to them.

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