From ‘bust’ to star: the steady rise of Alexis Lafreniere
Alexis Lafreniere was telling on himself.
He was sitting in the road dressing room at Scotiabank Arena last Saturday night, his New York Rangers having defeated the Toronto Maple Leafs, reflecting on the goal he scored in the first period.
On that play, Lafreniere darted to the goal mouth, beating defenseman Morgan Rielly to a loose puck. Instead of one-timing it, Lafreniere waited, carried the puck into the slot, weaved around center David Kampf, leaned into a wrist shot and beat screened goaltender Anthony Stolarz cleanly, glove side.
Lafreniere showed not just silky mitts on the play, but patience befitting a veteran star in the NHL. Would he have waited that long to shoot the puck even two years ago, when he was trying to outrun a bust label in his first few seasons after going first overall in the 2020 NHL Draft?
“Maybe,” Lafreniere told Daily Faceoff. “Honestly, I was looking for Artemi [Panarin]. I thought he was going to open up for a shot, so I was going to pass it, and he went to the net, so I hold it a little longer and I’m just trying to hit the net with a lot of people in front of me.”
In modestly downplaying the move he made on the goal, Lafreniere actually further highlighted what he’s become. Only a star-caliber player can slow the game down and process everything around him, one millisecond at a time, as he makes a play. It was one of many examples we’ve seen over the past year that confirm Lafreniere’s ascension to one of the league’s most impactful right wingers.
It didn’t always look like he’d get to this point, did it? When the Rangers selected him first overall in 2020, he carried significant hype, not on the generational-talent level of a Connor McDavid or Connor Bedard, but certainly in the next tier down as a potential franchise-altering superstar, similar to how the likes of Patrick Kane, John Tavares and Jack Hughes were regarded in their draft years. Lafreniere had the pure skill to challenge for scoring titles while mixing in a scrappy power forward’s mentality. He was an easy consensus top pick.
But no one quite understood COVID-19’s impact on that draft class, particularly when it came to someone like Lafreniere who jumped directly to the NHL. Because major junior leagues shut down at the start of the pandemic and didn’t finish their 2019-20 seasons, Lafreniere didn’t play after March 8 of his draft year, and he didn’t debut in the NHL until Jan. 14, 2021, meaning he went 10 months between competitive hockey games. He infamously scored once in his first 15 games, and the bust discourse began pretty much right away.
He was a 12-goal scorer, a 19-goal scorer and a 16-goal scorer across his first three NHL seasons, falling way short of expectations, playing primarily on the Rangers’ third line alongside fellow first-rounders Filip Chytil and Kaapo Kakko. But if you looked under the hood, Lafreniere was improving as a play driver, and things really changed in 2023-24 once he started playing with Panarin and Vincent Trocheck.
Check out Lafreniere’s 5-on-5 play-driving metrics in a few key individual categories in his first four NHL campaigns, plus his first six games this season:
| Season | Shots/60 | Attempts/60 | Chances/60 | HD chances/60 |
| 2020-21 | 5.52 | 9.11 | 5.34 | 2.89 |
| 2021-22 | 5.53 | 9.64 | 5.90 | 2.95 |
| 2022-23 | 6.42 | 11.20 | 6.98 | 3.21 |
| 2023-24 | 8.65 | 16.09 | 10.21 | 4.47 |
| 2024-25 | 9.84 | 17.83 | 11.07 | 3.69 |
He’s steadily trending upward in almost every category since his debut, seemingly catching up on the development time stolen by the pandemic. He busted out for a career-best 28-goal, 57-point campaign last season, and he levelled up even further last spring, burying eight goals in 16 playoff games, sending his confidence soaring.
“That just kind of built from last year to him maybe being one of our best players in the playoffs,” said Rangers head coach Peter Laviolette. “And some of the things he was doing in the playoffs, you have to be carrying some confidence to try and pull off some of the stuff that he did successfully. And he seems just to have picked up this year from where he [left] off last year.”
Lafreniere is quick to credit Panarin and Trocheck for making him a better player, but if you refer again to the chart above – those are all individual metrics. Of course Lafreniere benefits from stellar linemates, but he’s making plenty happen on his own, just like he did on that goal Saturday.
It certainly appears Lafreniere is about to deliver his best season yet and ascend into the all-star tier, perhaps flirting with 40 goals and point-per-game production. He’s already on than that pace, with three goals and six points in six games.
And if things continue that way, it could change Lafreniere’s life in multiple ways. For one, he could hear his name called in December when Canada finalizes its 4 Nations Face-Off roster. Because he can play both wings and has a physicality that suits him to any line, he’d be a versatile piece, and the Canada brass is reportedly already eyeing him, reports NHL.com’s Mike Zeisberger.
“That’s always cool,” Lafreniere said. “Obviously, those events are fun to watch. You never know what can happen. I’ll try to keep playing my game. My focus is here, try to help the team win, and play some good hockey.”
Secondly: Lafreniere is a 2025 RFA, meaning he’s already eligible for an extension. With each passing day, week and month, his price tag rises. If you look at the three forwards picked directly after Lafreniere in the 2020 Draft: the Los Angeles Kings’ Quinton Byfield signed this summer for five years at a $6.25 million AAV; the Ottawa Senators’ Tim Stutzle inked an eight-year deal with an $8.35 million AAV two years ago; and the Detroit Red Wings’ Lucas Raymond signed for eight years at an $8.075 million AAV just before the 2024-25 season.
Lafreniere hasn’t been as productive in the regular season as Stutzle or Raymond yet, but Lafreniere actually has lots of meaningful playoff experience, whereas neither of them has played a postseason game. Lafreniere thus has a strong case to join them in the $8 million range. Daily Faceoff insider Frank Seravalli reported earlier this month that Lafreniere and the Rangers are indeed working on an eight-year deal at that approximate AAV. If it doesn’t get done during the season and Lafreniere keeps playing this well, will that AAV increase even higher?
It really feels like, despite his steady improvement, Lafreniere isn’t close to his ceiling yet. Individual accolades await. Riches await. And we can’t rule out a Stanley Cup for his Rangers in the near future, either.
It’s safe to permanently delete the file marked Alexis Lafreniere, Bust.
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