Fun with on-pace numbers: History awaits for McDavid, Ovechkin and… Celebrini?

Credit: Nov 16, 2024; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; San Jose Sharks center Macklin Celebrini (71) reacts before taking a face-off against the Pittsburgh Penguins during the second period at PPG Paints Arena. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

We’ve been spoiled for statistical milestones in the NHL over the past few seasons, with offense hitting its highest peak in three decades. In 2022-23 and 2023-24 alone, we witnessed the first 150-point season since 1995-96; the first 69-goal season since 1995-96; the first 100-point defenseman since 1991-92; and the fourth and fifth members of the 100-assist clubs minted.

Scoring has dipped slightly this season, partially because we’re seeing the fewest shots on goal per game in 20 years, so we aren’t on track for as many memorable milestones as normal. That said, we could witness a few amazing feats before the season is up – some of the single-season variety and others qualifying as amazing career achievements.

Gretzky record within Crosby’s grasp

Technically, Crosby already grasped the record last year, earning a share with Wayne Gretzky as the only two players ever to record 19 (consecutive) point-per-game seasons in the NHL. Will Crosby stand alone as the first player to hit 20? He sits at 30 points through 32 games. With his Pittsburgh Penguins showing a pulse of late, he’s been a point-per-game player over his past 10 games, however. So if they can keep their momentum going, he could climb back to the point-per-game mark. The chase is very much on here.

Rookie Celebrini in rookie Crosby’s company

For all the (justified) hype Connor Bedard received last season, Mackin Celebrini has been a revelation in Year 1 despite being projected to have a lower ceiling. His dynamic, inspiring play is all the more incredible when we remember he turned 18 in June. He’s the youngest San Jose Shark ever to play an NHL game. With 10 goals and 20 points through 21 games, he’s also on track to be one of the youngest point-per-game NHL players of all-time. The record belongs to Ted Kennedy, who turned 18 in December of his first full season in 1943-44 and had 49 points in 49 games. The youngest since then was Crosby, who turned 18 in August before his 102-point rookie year in 2005-06. If Celebrini reaches a point per game, he’ll be the third-youngest ever to do it – and the youngest in 19 years.

Don’t sleep on 1,100 points for McDavid

Earlier this season, Connor McDavid “only” became the fourth-fastest player to 1,000 points after a slow start dropped him below Mike Bossy’s pace. But with McDavid and the Edmonton Oilers piping-hot now, McDavid is back to his virtuoso scoring ways. The Oilers have 51 games remaining on their 2024-25 schedule; if he amasses 74 or more points over that timeframe, he’ll leapfrog Bossy and become the third-fastest player to 1,100 points, doing it in 723 games.

Hellebuyck to join elite Vezina company?

Connor Hellebuyck still has demons to exorcise in the playoffs, but he’s the king of regular-season goaltending in his generation, combining consistently elite play with a throwback commitment to starting 65 games a year, give or take. Last season, he cruised to his second career Vezina Trophy, earning 31 of 32 first-place votes from NHL general managers. Hellebuyck has plenty of competition for the award early this season from the likes of Lukas Dostal and Karel Vejmelka, among others, but Hellebuyck is right there with them despite playing the most games of any goaltender. When you’re third in the league in goals saved above expected per 60 but also lead the league in appearances, you’re clearly the Vezina frontrunner. A 2024-25 win would make Hellebuyck the 13^th goalie to earn three Vezinas and the first three-time winner since Martin Brodeur captured his third in 2006-07. Brodeur was in his mid-30s when he did so, whereas Hellebuyck is 31. It’s entirely possible a third Vezina wouldn’t be his last.

Will Matthews reach 400 goals in style?

Alex Ovechkin buried his 400^th goal in his 634^th NHL game and became the sixth-fastest player to do so at the time. He’ll soon become hockey’s all-time goals king. But the Toronto Maple Leafs’ Auston Matthews continues to track ahead of Ovi on a pure-game basis. Matthews sits at 378 goals in just 584 games. Given Matthews’ propensity to go on goal-per-game tears for 20 or 30 games at a time, he’s a lock to beat Ovechkin to 400. But if Matthews goes off for 23 in his next 19 – unlikely, but a feat pretty much only he could reach – he’d surpass Jari Kurri and become the fifth-fastest to 400.

Can Ovechkin still catch Gretzky this season?

Ovechkin is working his way back from a broken fibula, with a projected return date of early January. If we play along and say he’s back by Washington’s home game against the Minnesota Wild Jan. 2: the Capitals would have 45 games remaining in the season at that point, with Ovechkin sitting 27 goals away from 895. Sniping 27 in 45 would mean 0.60 goals per game, a 49-goal pace in an 82-game season. In other words: entirely attainable for a guy who has scored 38 goals in his past 54 games, which is 0.71 goals per game. Let’s go.

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