Five key ‘swing teams’ at the NHL’s Thanksgiving standings juncture

Credit: Nov 15, 2024; Calgary, Alberta, CAN; Calgary Flames goaltender Dustin Wolf (32) makes a save against Nashville Predators center Gustav Nyquist (14) during the first period at Scotiabank Saddledome. Mandatory Credit: Sergei Belski-Imagn Images

We’ve all heard it enough times over the years that it’s pretty much colloquial in NHL talk now: U.S. Thanksgiving is a crucial juncture that often predicts the final standings of a given season, particularly when it comes to playoff berths. You don’t want to be on the outside looking in by late November.

So is it really true? Last season, U.S. Thanksgiving accurately predicted 13 of the 16 playoff berths. Only the Edmonton Oilers, Nashville Predators and New York Islanders went from out to in from that point onward.

To zoom out further, here’s a snapshot of the past 10 U.S. Thanksgiving days (excluding the 2020-21 schedule, which began in January) and what portion of each season’s NHL playoff field was already determined by then:

Season	Playoff spots predicted	Accuracy rate
2013-14	13	81.25%
2014-15	13	81.25%
2015-16	12	75.00%
2016-17	13	81.25%
2017-18	12	75.00%
2018-19	11	68.75%
2019-20	13	81.25%
2021-22	10	62.50%
2022-23	13	81.25%
2023-24	13	81.25%

In the past decade, then, U.S. Thanksgiving has predicted 76.88 percent of the playoff spots. Glass half empty: more than three quarters of the positions are decided already if the trend continues. Glass half full: in every season of the above sample, at least three and as many as six playoff spots were determined after U.S. Thanksgiving, meaning there’s still hope if you’re on the outside right now.

The Thanksgiving standings phenomenon is very real, but it’s not quite as influential as it’s advertised to be. That means the fate could change for a few key “swing teams,” for better or worse, between now and the end of the season.

Here are five teams who bear particularly close watching for the balance of 2024-25.

Boston Bruins

Record: 11-10-3
Status: 3rd in Atlantic Division
Reason to watch: Potential New Coach Bump

I’m already on record explaining why I think the current era of the Boston Bruins as a peak contender has passed, coaching change or not. But while the New Coach Bump tends to be temporary, in the short term it has proven to work. The Bruins badly lack scoring depth, but they still have the defensive personnel and goaltending to rebound somewhat in theory. Case in point: in four games since Joe Sacco took over as interim coach, the Bruins have a 3-1-0 record and have the lowest 5-on-5 expected goals against per 60 in the entire league – with the fourth-worst expected goals for per 60. Maybe this is what Boston has to be: a stingy, low-event hockey club. Will that be enough to get them back into the playoff picture? They’re currently two points up on the Buffalo Sabres, who have two games in hand. It shapes up to be a dogfight in the Atlantic Division.

Buffalo Sabres

Record: 11-10-1
Status: Outside playoffs
Reason to watch: Can they halt NHL-record playoff drought at 13 years?

The Sabres have overcome an 0-3 “Here we go again” start, plus a Tage Thompson multi-game injury absence, to sit within one point of a Wildcard position, behind the Tampa Bay Lightning. The Sabres have held a playoff spot by U.S. Thanksgiving during their 13-year drought before, most infamously in 2018-19 when they sat first overall in the NHL standings and still missed the playoffs, so their fan base remains slow to trust that they’re for real. The Sabres sit 29^th in attendance by capacity at 81.6 percent. Will Buffalo finally make their fans’ dreams come true this season? It’s highly debatable. They’re middling in most 5-on-5 play driving metrics. They’re right about where they should be in the standings, with goaltender Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen continuing his emergence from last season. If the Sabres secure a playoff position deep into the winter, will GM Kevyn Adams look to make a buyer trade?

Calgary Flames

Record: 12-7-4
Status: 2^nd in Pacific Division
Reason to watch: Are they really this good or just relying on goaltending?

The Flames entered 2024-25 deep into a aggressively decisive rebuild under GM Craig Conroy, having dealt away Tyler Toffoli, Nikita Zadorov, Elias Lindholm, Chris Tanev, Noah Hanifin, Jacob Markstrom and Andrew Mangiapane in the span of a year. Presumably, this season would be about watching the team’s younger players grow into bigger roles and perhaps entertaining trade offers for more veterans, such as defenseman Rasmus Andersson. So what’s with the surge to second place? Are these Flames truly ahead of schedule? Not so fast. They’re one of the lowest-scoring teams in the NHL, they struggle to generate quality chances at 5-on-5, and their special teams are subpar. It has mostly been the Dustin Wolf Show in Calgary. Among 38 goalies with 10 or more games played, he sits eighth in goals saved above expected per 60. His .921 save percentage is sixth-best in the NHL. Not only is he a Calder Trophy favorite at the moment, but if he keeps this up long enough to will Calgary into the playoffs, he should be a Hart Trophy candidate. He’s having a season reminiscent of 2008-09 Steve Mason. If Wolf falters, the Flames probably will, too. When your leading scorer is tied for 148^th in the league in points, the wins will be tough to sustain unless your goalie stands on his head all year.

Nashville Predators

Record: 7-12-3
Status: 8^th in Central Division
Reason to watch: Will they really stay this bad all year?

They were the offseason’s splashiest team by a landslide, shelling out big money and term for forwards Steven Stamkos and Jonathan Marchessault and blueliner Brady Skjei. They were, in the eyes of many prognosticators, poised to transition from the murky middle to true Stanley Cup threats. But the free agency strategy has blown up in GM Barry Trotz’s face. The new additions have struggled, they lack depth at center and they’re one of the older teams in the NHL. My colleague Scott Maxwell breaks down the source(s) of Nashville’s problems here. Still – they’re better than this. They have plenty of high-end veteran talent, from goaltender Juuse Saros to defenseman Roman Josi to left winger Filip Forsberg. They’ve also proven capable of going on heaters; last season, they popped off for a 16-0-2 run in the second half, fuelled by being denied a U2 concert, propelling them into the playoffs. They have some serious climbing to do but, keeping in mind that a quarter of playoff spots aren’t determined by Thanksgiving on average, we can’t leave them for dead quite yet.

St. Louis Blues

Record: 11-12-1
Status: 5^th in Central Division
Reason to watch: Potential New Coach Bump

Can Jim Montgomery give the Blues a New Coach Bump while his departure simultaneously gives the Bruins one? The early results suggest his arrival has energized his new group: two wins, outscoring the New York Rangers and New Jersey Devils 8-2. The Blues are within striking distance of a playoff position, so it’s possible they find some mid-season magic under a new bench boss, just as they did in 2018-19 when they went from last place to Stanley Cup champions in the matter of months. It will come down to whether Montgomery can help this team find its scoring touch, especially on the power play. The early returns look good, and he’s not totally lacking in scoring talent to work with. But after Robert Thomas returned to the lineup from injury last week, the Blues have lost Pavel Buchnevich and await word on his status. It will be tough to turn their season around without their full complement of scoring weapons. Then again, the New Coach Bump is borderline unstoppable.

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