Was Game 4 a blip, or will Leafs’ familiar ghosts return?
Which version of the Toronto Maple Leafs’ Game 5 do you choose to see?
The ever-faithful optimist might frame it as a night in which a gritty team did everything but win. The Leafs overcame a sluggish start and 2-0 first-period deficit to draw even. Playing their best lockdown defense of the series to date, they held the Ottawa Senators without a shot for 16:22 at one point and only let 20 reach goaltender Anthony Stolarz in close to four periods of hockey. When the Sens took the lead partway through the third period, the Leafs answered again with a late equalizer on an Oliver Ekman-Larsson one-timer. With John Tavares temporarily missing in overtime after taking a big hit from Artem Zub, a somewhat discombobulated Toronto power play still managed to do everything but score on Linus Ullmark, buzzing the net. They showed plenty of backbone and played well enough to clinch the series.
Now how about the beaten-down pessimist’s take? They may be seeing ghosts after the 4-3 Ottawa victory, which came at the 17:42 mark of overtime when star defenseman Jake Sanderson’s long-distance wrist shot beat a screened Stolarz. They may point out that Toronto chased the game, digging itself a hole with that flat-footed first period. They might argue the Leafs looked rattled by the Tavares injury in overtime, playing hot potato with the puck, showing the frazzled-under-pressure identity that has plagued the Auston Matthews/Mitch Marner era. They might shudder at the memory of 2021, when the Leafs led the Montreal Canadiens 3-1 in a series and blew consecutive opportunities to close out the matchup in overtime only to lose Game 7. And they might point to one terrifying statistic: the Leafs are now 1-12 all-time in closeout games during the Matthews/Marner era.
So: which narrative was the more accurate one for Game 4?
We don’t know yet. What we do know is that the Leafs (a) have done enough to earn a 3-1 series lead but (b) have also shown enough warts that the Senators have more than a sliver of hope as the series heads back to Toronto for Game 5 on Tuesday.
The good: the Leafs’ stars have done their job. Tavares and Matthew Knies scored the Leafs’ first and second goals Saturday at Canadian Tire Centre, Knies’ coming on a galloping breakaway after forcing a turnover and fighting off Artem Zub. Every member of the Leafs’ Core Four forwards has at least five points in the first four games of this series. Toronto has gotten mostly stellar goaltending from Stolarz, and no team this postseason has received more goals from its D-corps.
The bad: Toronto’s depth scoring up front is non-existent. Third-liner Max Domi has an overtime winner, but it’s the lone bottom-six goal for Toronto in the series to date. Bobby McMann, Nick Robertson, Max Pacioretty, Steven Lorentz, Scott Laughton and Calle Jarnkrok have combined for zilch. Stolarz’s rebound control has also been somewhat of a problem. Only two of the starting goalies among the 16 playoff teams are allowing more rebound attempts against per 60 minutes. While the Leafs have done a tremendous job blocking shots and limiting Ottawa’s shot quality, far too much of the series has taken place in Toronto’s zone. It’s questionable how sustainable the strategy is long-term. The Senators have shown an ability to hem Toronto in for extended stretches and have held the edge in scoring chances in all four games. Also concerning: while Tavares was cleared to return late in the first overtime period after taking the hit from Zub, and coach Craig Berube suggested there was no concern about his status after the game, Tavares wouldn’t be the first player to pass a screening in the quiet room only to manifest concussion symptoms later. Losing him for any amount of time would be quite a blow, particularly when the Leafs are struggling to get depth scoring.
How the rest of this series plays out, then, could come down to which side of the narrative struggle wins out. Maybe this Leafs team, the grittiest of the Matthews/Marner era and showing a level of poise we haven’t seen in the past, just suffered a tiny blip in what will still be a relatively short series. The Sens have played competitive enough hockey that they surely deserved at least a win, after all.
If it were any other franchise, it would feel that simple. But it’s the Leafs we’re talking about. It doesn’t matter that only four teams in NHL history have rallied from 4-0 series deficits. The jaded, broken contingent of Leaf Nation will tell you, “If anyone will be the fifth, it’s us.” It’ll be up to the Leafs to smother that flame rather than letting it grow. The ember will ignite if 3-1 becomes 3-2.
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POST SPONSORED BY bet365
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