Goalie confidence ratings: How sturdy is every NHL playoff contender’s crease?
With the Stanley Cup playoffs right around the corner, Daily Faceoff teammate Matt Larkin recently asked me a great question.
“What’s your confidence level in each team’s goaltending?”
The query took me down a rabbit hole, trying to bridge the gap between statistics and gut feel. The eye test is important. Season-long statistics matter. And past Stanley Cup experience is a big X-factor.
So on a scale of 1-to-10, here’s my level of confidence for every NHL team that’s bound for the postseason – and a few that are on the outside looking in but still have a chance at making the Stanley Cup playoffs.
BOSTON BRUINS (8/10)
What I like:
Even though Linus Ullmark has gotten most of the accolades this year – and deservedly so – Jeremy Swayman has played a larger role than many people outside of Boston realize. Ullmark is set to win his first Vezina Trophy as the NHL’s top netminder. I’ve seen growth in both goalies this year and I think Ullmark is ready to make his mark in the postseason.
What makes me nervous:
Last season’s Stanley Cup playoffs, when both Ullmark and Swayman started games for the Bruins in a first-round defeat to the Carolina Hurricanes.
Bottom line:
If Ullmark can play like he has during the regular season, Boston will be just fine. And Swayman is great insurance for head coach Jim Montgomery.
CAROLINA HURRICANES (6/10)
What I like:
The Hurricanes have depth in goal, with Frederik Andersen, Antti Raanta, and Pyotr Kochetkov in the mix. All three have made positive contributions to Carolina’s success this year. And they all have experience during the Stanley Cup playoffs.
What makes me nervous:
Andersen and Raanta are both injury prone. And Kochetkov hasn’t been as dominant in the second half of the 2022-23 season as he was early. But more than anything: I don’t think Carolina’s goalies have been tested much. What happens when the shot quality and intensity rise?
Bottom line:
Someone has to grab the net and stay healthy enough to finish the job.
NEW JERSEY DEVILS (5/10)
What I like:
Vitek Vanecek stabilized the New Jersey crease this season, and rookie Akira Schmid was impressive in 17 appearances.
What makes me nervous:
Vanecek’s previous Stanley Cup playoff struggles with the Washington Capitals are a big concern. And simply put: I think Vanecek is a good NHL goalie, but can he find another level? Like Carolina’s goalies, Vanecek hasn’t been tested much this year. Mackenzie Blackwood is also in the mix, but his health is always a worry. And his play hasn’t been great when available.
Bottom line:
It’s Vanecek’s net, and he’s got a lot to prove.
VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS (4/10)
What I like:
Bruce Cassidy’s defensive system. Laurent Brossoit’s recent success. Logan Thompson’s excellent rookie campaign. And the positive growth seen in Adin Hill’s game.
What makes me nervous:
Just about everything. Brossoit has played well and won games, but he’s been a career No.2 up until this point. He also spent most of the year in the AHL after off-season hip surgery. Jonathan Quick has won two Stanley Cups, but his results with Vegas have been spotty at best. The Kings gave up on Quick – a franchise icon – after several lackluster years. Could Logan Thompson or Adin Hill – who are hurt – be in the mix? Maybe. But how would they fare after missing significant time due to injury?
Bottom line:
There’s a lot going on. The best thing that can happen is the Golden Knights continue to play Cassidy’s smothering defense and one goaltender rises to the occasion. But I have no idea who that will be.
NEW YORK RANGERS (9/10)
What I like:
Igor Shesterkin has a Vezina Trophy to his credit, and despite his numbers being slightly down from last year, I think he’s performed at just as high of a level. And the best part going into this year’s Stanley Cup playoffs is the experience he gained last season. Intensity ratchets up and I think it took him a few games to find that level in his own game. Shesterkin now knows what it takes.
What makes me nervous:
There are games where I think the Rangers simply don’t show up, and it causes them to give up a pile of odd-man rushes. That can’t happen in the postseason. And if Shesterkin gets hurt, I don’t trust Jaroslav Halak to win a series.
Bottom line:
If the Rangers can play tight as a team, Shesterkin will give them every chance to contend for the Stanley Cup.
EDMONTON OILERS (6/10)
What I like:
How consistent Stuart Skinner has been. He has a .911 save percentage this season. And he has that exact same mark in his last 14 appearances. I think he’s been really predictable for Oilers coach Jay Woodcroft. And I really liked how Jack Campbell played for most of January.
What makes me nervous:
Jack Campbell. Who’s been in a big funk. But it’s Skinner’s net in Edmonton, and a few things jump out. First, Skinner will be getting his first taste of the Stanley Cup playoffs. Which I actually don’t think will be a big deal to him. But what does concern me is Skinner’s ability to steal games. Can he do it in the postseason? Two recent wins over the Kings – in which he allowed just one goal – suggest he can. But playoffs are a different animal. I’m also leery of Skinner’s puckhandling.
Bottom line:
I think it’s Skinner or bust in Edmonton. Can he beat a team like the Colorado Avalanche in a seven-game series?
TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS (7/10)
What I like:
Ilya Samsonov is playing the best hockey of his career. And I think the Maple Leafs locker room believes in him – something I’m not sure he had previously as a member of the Washington Capitals. Samsonov has racked up a career-high 25 wins and earned the No.1 job over often-injured goalie partner Matt Murray. Rookie Joseph Woll has won four straight games and looks like he’s ready to contribute on a larger scale.
What makes me nervous:
Health. Samsonov missed a decent chunk of the season and Murray is now on the injured reserve list for the third time. Leafs GM Kyle Dubas gambled this offseason by bringing in two goalies with a history of injury problems, and it remains to be seen how it plays out.
Bottom line:
It’s not easy to play goalie for the Maple Leafs. But I think the franchise is in a better spot today than in years past.
LOS ANGELES KINGS (7/10)
What I like:
Despite a .902 save percentage, Pheonix Copley has been nearly unbeatable for the Kings since being recalled from the AHL earlier this season. His 24-5-3 record is almost unfathomable considering he began the year as a third-string goalie. Copley deserves credit for getting the Kings wins, but Los Angeles got even better at the trade deadline by adding Joonas Korpisalo from the Columbus Blue Jackets. Korpisalo has a .919 save percentage in nine games with the Kings. And the Finnish netminder has Stanley Cup playoff experience, including knocking off the Toronto Maple Leafs in the first round of the 2020 postseason.
What makes me nervous:
I love what Copley has done, but I think Korpisalo goes in the postseason. And despite looking great for the Kings so far, history isn’t on the side of trade deadline goalie moves. Korpisalo also struggled Thursday against the Vegas Golden Knights when he was torched for four goals on six shots. Is Copley good enough to win a Stanley Cup? I’m not sure.
Bottom line:
In November it looked the goaltending would once again doom the Kings. Not anymore. Los Angeles has improved in goal.
COLORADO AVALANCHE (6/10)
What I like:
The gamble to bring in Alexandar Georgiev has paid off for Colorado – so far. The Bulgarian netminder has established himself as a true No.1 and put up good numbers to boot. He has a .918 save percentage in 58 games. This season feels like something of a revenge tour after the New York Rangers moved on from him.
What makes me nervous:
Georgiev got progressively worse with the Rangers when he couldn’t grab the starting job over Igor Shetserkin, and that sticks with me. Georgiev can be a really streaky goalie. And that’s especially tough during the Stanley Cup playoffs because all it takes is four bad games in a row and a team is cooked.
Bottom line:
If Georgiev can keep a level head and find a new level of consistency, the Avalanche should be just fine. But I’m not sold just yet.
DALLAS STARS (8/10)
What I like:
Jake Oettinger followed up his outrageously awesome 2021-22 first round Stanley Cup playoff performance against the Calgary Flames with a solid 2022-23 campaign. At times early in the year, he played like a Vezina Trophy candidate. His numbers have trailed off recently but I still think he’s capable of stealing a series. Or more.
What makes me nervous:
I think he was slightly overworked down the stretch, but that was partly due to goalie partner Scott Wedgewood missing time due to injury.
Bottom line:
Technique. Confidence. Experience. It’s all there for Oettinger.
MINNESOTA WILD (6/10)
What I like:
Filip Gustavsson is in the midst of a breakout season. His .932 save percentage is second only to Linus Ullmark. He looks like Minnesota’s goalie of the future. But maybe not now, as future Hall of Famer Marc-Andre Fleury has been alternating games with the upstart Swede. Fleury has won eight of his last 10 starts.
What makes me nervous:
Gustavsson deserves to play but I’m not sure coach Dean Evason will go against having Fleury in the net. Considering Fleury’s Stanley Cup rings, I can understand the reasoning. But he’s had an up-and-down season. Gustavsson has been one of the NHL’s best netminders this year. He just doesn’t have the experience. Fleury lost the net to Cam Talbot after five first-round Stanley Cup playoff games last season.
Bottom line:
Whichever goalie Evason chooses, it better be the right decision. And that can only be judged after the season.
TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING (10/10)
What I like:
Andrei Vasilevskiy is the best money goaltender in the world. And he has two Stanley Cup rings to prove it.
What makes me nervous:
The thought of Vasilevskiy getting hurt.
Bottom line:
If the Lightning fail to capture the Stanley Cup, it won’t be because of goaltending.
SEATTLE KRAKEN (2/10)
What I like:
Martin Jones has won 26 games. And Philip Grubauer has been better this season after a disastrous 2021-22 campaign. I do admire the closing ability of each goaltender. Seattle wouldn’t be a Stanley Cup playoff team without key saves.
What makes me nervous:
As a team, the Kraken had the worst cumulative save percentage of the 2021-22 season. And this year Seattle is fourth-worst.
Bottom line:
The Kraken need their goalies to save more than 90 percent of shots. And so far during the team’s existence, that hasn’t happened.
WINNIPEG JETS (9/10)
What I like:
Connor Hellebuyck’s career .916 save percentage swells to .921 during 35 Stanley Cup playoff games. And he’s been one of the NHL’s best goaltenders this season. The hard part for Hellebuyck is that he’s rarely won lately when he allows more than two goals. Winnipeg wouldn’t be close to making it without him.
What makes me nervous:
Hellebuyck’s skating and puckhandling. Neither are his best attributes. But he thinks the game at such a high level that he can usually overcome them. And any injury to Hellebuyck would be catastrophic for the Jets.
Bottom line:
Winnipeg tends to overachieve because of Hellebuyck.
CALGARY FLAMES (5/10)
What I like:
Jacob Markstrom has some juice right now – he’s won four of his last six starts. If the Flames manage to qualify for the Stanley Cup playoffs, Markstrom will no doubt have played a huge role. And I do think his goalie partner, Dan Vladar, is a solid option for coach Darryl Sutter if needed.
What makes me nervous:
Neither Markstrom nor Vladar has a save percentage above 90 percent. And the Flames have a nagging habit of allowing the first goal of the game, then being unable to recover. Markstrom also had a tough 2021-22 postseason for the Flames.
Bottom line:
Calgary’s goaltending hasn’t been as bad as traditional numbers say. But it also hasn’t been dominant like last season. Markstrom needs to find another gear.
FLORIDA PANTHERS (3/10)
What I like:
Bobrovsky has had several runs of quality games this season that made me think he was finally regaining the form seen previously as a member of the Columbus Blue Jackets. But Bob has been sick the past week, and it’s opened the door for organizational No. 3 Alex Lyon to come in and shine for the Panthers. The Yale graduate has won five games in a row and put the Panthers on the brink of qualifying for the Stanley Cup playoffs.
What makes me nervous:
Bob has gone stone cold this season on several occasions. And I think the Panthers are a mess in their defensive zone. If Florida makes the postseason it’ll likely be on the back of Alex Lyon. He would deserve to start Game 1. But will Bobrovsky play regardless? I’m not sure.
Bottom line:
Coach Paul Maurice may need to make a decision in goal. And that’s a precarious position for him to be in – one that he couldn’t have expected. Play the red hot Lyon, or play Bobrovsky, the team’s $10 million a year goalie? It would take guts for Maurice to start Lyon.
NEW YORK ISLANDERS (9/10)
What I like:
Ilya Sorokin and Semyon Varlamov combine to make the most potent goaltending tandem in the NHL. I have no doubt that Sorokin is capable of winning a Stanley Cup championship. In his last eight years of pro hockey split between the KHL and NHL, Sorokin has never posted a save percentage below .918. I love his skating and body control.
What makes me nervous:
Not much when it comes to goaltending. But scoring has been a chore for the Islanders.
Bottom line:
If the Islanders can’t win with Sorokin in net, they’ve got bigger fish to fry.
NASHVILLE PREDATORS (7/10)
What I like:
Juuse Saros is a top-five NHL netminder and easily the Predators most valuable player. He’s appeared in 60 games and sits second league-wide in goals saved above expected (moneypuck.com). Saros also has 17 games of Stanley Cup playoff experience.
What makes me nervous:
As soon as Saros went down with an injury during the 2021-22 postseason, the Preds were toast. But thankfully this year Kevin Lankinen has been pretty good as Saros’ backup.
Bottom line:
Making the Stanley Cup playoffs is a longshot. But if the Preds somehow squeak in, Saros will be carrying a great deal of confidence.
PITTSBURGH PENGUINS (3/10)
What I like:
When Jarry is healthy and on his game, he’s a top-10 NHL goalie. He tracks the puck extremely well. And Jarry’s excellent puckhandling is invaluable to Pittsburgh’s breakout.
What makes me nervous:
Jarry has been hurt for long stretches this season, and it’s believed that he’s not playing at 100 percent as is. Pittsburgh has been so focused on making the Stanley Cup playoffs that I wonder if they’re running Jarry hot. When he’s not available, Casey DeSmith owns a respectable .905 save percentage. But his sub-500 winning percentage isn’t encouraging.
Bottom line:
GM Ron Hextall rolled the dice by bringing back Jarry and DeSmith for the 2022-23 season. If the Penguins miss the Stanley Cup playoffs, or if either goalie gets hurt, it’ll be tough for Hextall to hide from that decision.
BUFFALO SABRES (3/10)
What I like:
Bless the Sabres for paying the goalie union. I can’t remember the last time I saw four healthy goalies on an NHL roster. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen has shown potential this year, and Devon Levi is a very intriguing prospect fresh out of Northeastern University. Craig Anderson held the fort early, and if the Sabres somehow manage to qualify for the Stanley Cup playoffs, he might be the ace in the hole. Anderson has a .929 save percentage in 48 postseason appearances.
What makes me nervous:
The unknown. Who is going to start if the Sabres somehow make it? Luukkonen has exploitable habits and Levi isn’t ready. Anderson is 41 years old. And I didn’t even mention Eric Comrie, who has struggled after signing a two-year free agent deal with Buffalo this past offseason.
Bottom line:
Chances are the Sabres do not qualify for the Stanley Cup playoffs. But if Buffalo somehow makes it, they need to start the goalie that got them there. I just don’t know who that would be.
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