Grading the Mikhail Sergachev trade: Utah upgrades on defense at a sky-high price

Mike Gould
Mike Gould
Grading the Mikhail Sergachev trade: Utah upgrades on defense at a sky-high price
Credit: Sergei Belski-USA TODAY Sports

The Utah Hockey Club made its first-ever major trade on Saturday to help kick off Day 2 of the 2024 NHL Draft.

Heading to Utah: Mikhail Sergachev, a two-time Stanley Cup champion coming off a broken leg that cost him most of the 2023-24 season. Going to the Tampa Bay Lightning: Conor Geekie, J.J. Moser, and two draft picks.

It wasn’t the last significant trade Utah made on Saturday, but it was certainly the biggest, and it absolutely calls for another edition of Daily Faceoff‘s Trade Grades!

UTAH HOCKEY CLUB

Receive:

D Mikhail Sergachev, 26 – $8.5 million cap hit through 2031

Utah has had a glaring need on defense going back to their final few years in Arizona, so it was mildly surprising to see them take two forwards on Day 1 of the draft — suggesting, if anything, that they might’ve had another trick already up their sleeve. That appears to have been the case.

Sergachev gives the Utah organization its first true top-pairing defender, albeit one who is coming off an injury-riddled season with the Lightning. The 26-year-old lefty skated in just 34 games with Tampa Bay during the regular season before suffering a severe leg fracture that was expected to keep him out for the rest of the year. While, in the end, he returned for two more games in the playoffs, Sergachev understandably didn’t quite look like himself after he came back.

Yes, Sergachev demonstrated over his seven seasons with the Lightning that he is more than capable of logging a ton of minutes and putting up points from the blue line. He’s a 6’3″, 211-pound monster who can skate and make plays. But is he an $8 million player? That much is far less certain. After being insulated by Victor Hedman and Ryan McDonagh for many years, Sergachev’s star began to fade a little over the last two seasons once McDonagh departed for the Nashville Predators. When healthy, Sergachev’s 5-on-5 possession numbers last year were just O.K., although he was also done in a fair amount by poor goaltending and finishing while he was on the ice.

It’s understandable that Utah wanted to make a splash at the draft after many years of general inactivity in Arizona, but in a way, this feels a bit like overdoing it. Sergachev is in the same age range as Clayton Keller, but the real future of this Utah team lies with Logan Cooley, Dylan Guenther, and the like. Subtracting a key piece of that cohort in Conor Geekie to add an $8.5 million defender signed until 2031 and coming off a major injury feels like a bit of a needless risk for a team that had been patiently accumulating assets ever since Bill Armstrong took the reins as GM. They compounded that risk later on Saturday by trading two additional second-round picks for John Marino, who had his own struggles in New Jersey last season.

If Sergachev puts up 64 points again in 2024-25, this deal will be far more understandable for Utah. But it’s worth remembering that, aside from 2022-23, Sergachev has never exceeded 40 points in a single NHL season. He’s a talented player, but if he starts looking more like a No. 2 or 3 than a No. 1 after this change of scenery, Utah might have a problem.

Grade: C+

TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING

Receive:

C Conor Geekie, 20 – $886,667 cap hit through 2027
D J.J. Moser, 24 – RFA
2025 second-round pick
2024 seventh-round pick (No. 199 overall)

It’s tough for any team to lose a skilled player, but it’s possible that Tampa Bay might secretly be happy that Utah was willing to take the final seven years of Sergachev’s contract off their payroll — especially considering the assets they were able to pick up in return.

This is nothing short of a windfall for the Lightning. Geekie is an outstanding young player who is only two years removed from being selected with the No. 11 overall pick in the 2022 NHL Draft. The 6’4″ center is coming off a 43-goal, 99-point season split between the Wenatchee Wild and Swift Current Broncos and projects to be a quality second-line player in the NHL. It is exceedingly rare to see prospects of this caliber traded so soon after being drafted.

Moser only just turned 24 earlier this month and is due a new contract this summer as a restricted free agent. He was a second-round pick in Armstrong’s first draft as Coyotes GM and is currently second among all 2021 selections in games played (only behind Cole Sillinger). Moser is a smooth-skating Swiss rearguard with plenty of upside at both ends of the ice and the ability to play on both sides; he’s a great piece for Tampa Bay moving forward and could potentially slot in on their second pairing going forward for a fraction of what Sergachev costs. After a few years of playing agonizingly difficult minutes on a thin Coyotes team, Moser could pop off in Tampa Bay with more support.

The picks are nice, too, although the real value is in the two potential impact players that now belong to Tampa Bay. (By the way, the Bolts selected Swedish forward Noah Steen, a double re-entry, with the seventh-rounder they received in this deal). For a Lightning team firmly in “retool” mode, getting two players who should slot in as fringe core pieces for bargain-bin cap hits is extremely valuable, especially as they continue to court Steven Stamkos — and potentially even take a swing at signing Jake Guentzel in free agency.

This is a really savvy trade for a Lightning team that made another good one on Saturday, cutting their losses with Tanner Jeannot by flipping him to the L.A. Kings for a 2025 2nd and a 2024 4th. If Geekie lives up to his immense potential, this could turn into a home run of a deal for Tampa Bay. Even if he doesn’t, it still opens them up to do some really interesting things as they continue to reshape their roster.

Grade: B+

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