Grading the Pierre-Luc Dubois trade: Kings are envy of the league up the middle, Jets are in denial

Credit: © Dennis Schneidler-USA TODAY Sports

For the third consecutive offseason, the Los Angeles Kings have levelled up with a major acquisition at forward. Two years ago, they traded for Viktor Arvidsson and signed Phillip Danault. Last year, they traded for Kevin Fiala. This time around, GM Rob Blake swung a blockbuster trade with the Winnipeg Jets to bring center Pierre-Luc Dubois to Tinseltown. Dubois, 25, inked an eight-year extension at an $8.5 million AAV for a sign-and-trade. The Kings get a coveted power forward to strengthen an already deep center position. The Jets, painted into a corner with the RFA Dubois having requested a trade, parlay a bad situation into a respectable return, picking up forwards Gabe Vilardi, Alex Iafallo, Rasmus Kupari and a 2024 second-round pick.

So is Dubois worth the price L.A. paid? And did the Jets get enough given their lack of leverage? Time to grade the trade.

LOS ANGELES KINGS

Receive:

C/LW Pierre-Luc Dubois, 25, $8.5 million cap hit through 2030-31

Let’s get the easy part out of the way. Dubois held all the cards in his move out of Winnipeg. He was owed a $6 million dollar qualifying offer: a bargain for a top-two-line centerman in today’s NHL. But Dubois made it clear to Winnipeg that he wouldn’t be re-upping with them. So GM Kevin Cheveldayoff was forced to move the No. 3 overall pick from the 2016 draft, lest he risk losing Dubois for nothing in the summer of 2024 when he’s set to become an unrestricted free agent.

For the Kings, it’s an interesting move. L.A. already has two of the best 200-foot centers in captain Anze Kopitar and Phillip Danault. So Dubois’ usage is already curious. Does he bump Danault down to the third line? And what about Quinton Byfield, the No. 2 overall pick from the 2020 draft who’s just starting to hit his stride at the NHL level?

Byfield is a natural center, but he’s only been able to crack the top two lines as a left winger. Do the Kings believe he doesn’t have what it takes to be a top center in the NHL? Or is the team simply preparing for life after Kopitar, who turns 36 in August and has one year remaining on his contract at a $10 million cap hit?

To me, Los Angeles wants a Vegas Golden Knights model of centers upon centers. William Karlsson – a second line center for most NHL teams – was centering the third unit for Vegas en route to their 2023 Stanley Cup championship. I think Danault slots into that role for the Kings, while Dubois goes into the No. 2 slot behind Kopitar. And if anything goes sideways, Byfield is ready to go down the middle.

L.A. already traded puck-moving defenseman Sean Durzi to open up future cap space for Dubois’ eight-year, $8.5 million AAV contract extension. And it will hurt the Kings to lose Iaffalo, who I feel was far more important to the Kings than most realize. The undrafted winger can play up and down the lineup and is useful in all situations. But he’s 29 years old and likely didn’t fit within L.A.’s long term plans.

I think Vilardi was a source of frustration for the Kings despite posting a career-best 41 points last season. And Kupari is a serviceable depth player. But both are pending RFAs, and with cap space at a premium, it made them expendable.

On paper it seems like the Kings gave up a lot for one player. And Dubois does have a history of instability: he twice requested a trade before he turned 25. But armed with a long term contract on a team that should contend for the Stanley Cup into the foreseeable future, Dubois should be happy. Especially in a city like Los Angeles.

If the Kings want to get past the Edmonton Oilers and Golden Knights in next year’s Stanley Cup Playoffs, they need strength down the middle. This trade gives Los Angeles one of the best groupings of centermen in the NHL. And the Kings didn’t have to give up a star player to make it happen.

Grade: A-

WINNIPEG JETS

Receive:

LW Alex Iaffalo, 29, $4 million cap hit through 2024-25
C/RW Gabriel Vilardi, 23, RFA (arbitration eligible)
C/LW/RW Rasmus Kupari, 23, RFA

2nd round draft choice in 2024 (originally MTL)

Under the harshest eye of scrutiny, this trade does nothing to make the Jets better. It simply keeps them competitive. Which is exactly opposite of what the franchise needs.

The Jets, be it due to pressure from the fans or ownership, simply cannot entertain the thought of entering a rebuild. So the team was stuck trying to find a dance partner with enough tangible roster players to make trading for Dubois worthwhile.

I think the optimal return for Dubois would have included at least a first round draft pick in addition to Iaffalo, Vilardi, and Kupari. But the second round selection in 2024 makes it palatable.

Keep in mind that Dubois wasn’t going to take an extension with a bad team. He wants to win and get paid simultaneously. So any club trading for his rights was going to yield a low first round pick in the first place. A second-rounder is a nice consolation prize given how little leverage Cheveldayoff had.

It’s not a perfect deal for Winnipeg. But it’s a nice start. Three of the Jets’ top players – Connor Hellebuyck, Mark Scheifele, and Blake Wheeler – are also on the trade block. Maybe there’s more moves to come. Maybe Cheveldayoff will be able to recoup additional picks and prospects in other trades. Winnipeg still needs to backfill the center ice position.

That’s where it gets interesting with Vilardi. He’s been primarily a winger in the NHL, but the No.11 pick in the 2017 NHL Draft is also adept at center. Vilardi started out last season on fire but fizzled towards the end of the campaign. Consistency has plagued the talented forward, but he has a tremendous shot.

Vilardi scored 23 goals last season. Can Winnipeg head coach Rick Bowness extract more from his game? At just 23 years old, Vilardi probably hasn’t hit his offensive ceiling. And he’ll likely be given a bigger role with the Jets than he ever received with the Kings, especially on the power play. Is he a top six player at the NHL level? The jury is out.

Iafallo, like I mentioned earlier, is a quality player. He’s a middle-six winger that should produce 15 goals and 40 points like clockwork. Iafallo is good on the penalty kill and capable on the power play. But durability is a question: Iafallo has missed a decent number of games over his six-year NHL career.

As for Kupari: he was a good AHL player. And he’s currently a 15-20 point player at the NHL level. But unfortunately for Kupari, he wasn’t able to distinguish himself in the Kings lineup. Winnipeg is in need of depth, and Kupari could use a fresh start. He isn’t eligible for arbitration and his qualifying offer is under a million dollars. Financially Kupari works for Winnipeg.

If you take the Dubois trade at face value, it’s tough to say Winnipeg did well. L.A. gave up depth players and a second round pick, while the Jets are losing a top centerman. But the key to this trade is Vilardi. If his game continues to grow, maybe the deal will look better in the future.

Grade: B

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Grading the Pierre-Luc Dubois trade: Kings are envy of the league up the middle, Jets are in denial

LOS ANGELES KINGS

WINNIPEG JETS

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