Hart Trophy betting odds: Top favorites and sleepers for 2022-23

No NHL award seems to stir up debate like the Hart Trophy. Why? It probably comes down to the definition. On paper, it goes to the player judged most valuable to his team. Some years, the Professional Hockey Writers Association leans that way in the vote, giving it to a player who massively influenced his team’s success, such as Taylor Hall in 2017-18. Most of the time, the award simply goes to the best player. Usually, the best player is the most valuable player, but it gets complicated when that player’s teammates include other elite players and they end up stealing votes from each other. That’s when the debates explode and we have fans claiming Connor McDavid gets robbed and should simply win the Hart every year.

When it comes to voting on Hart Trophy futures odds, we can’t treat the debate as background noise. The award is subjective. So you can’t merely bet on who you think will win the Hart on merit. You have to factor in potential narratives.

What can the 10 most recent winners tell us about the voting trend at the PHWA? (full disclosure: I am one of the voters)

2012-13: Alex Ovechkin
2013-14: Sidney Crosby
2014-15: Carey Price
2015-16: Patrick Kane
2016-17: Connor McDavid
2017-18: Taylor Hall
2018-29: Nikita Kucherov
2019-20: Leon Draisaitl
2020-21: Connor McDavid
2021-22: Auston Matthews

– Six of the past 10 Hart winners have led the NHL in points
– Two of the past 10 Hart winners have led the NHL in goals
– Nine of the past 10 Hart winners have led the NHL in at least one major statistical category
– Price is one of two goaltenders this century to win the award
– No defenseman has won the Hart Trophy or even finished as a Hart finalist since Chris Pronger in 1999-00.
– No one has won the award on a non-playoff team since Mario Lemieux in 1987-88

We’ll keep those trends in mind when examining Hart Trophy odds at PointsBet.

THE CURRENT TOP 10

1. Connor McDavid, Oilers, +220

Why he’ll win: He’s the century’s most dominant NHL player, the third player in league history with four scoring titles before turning 26, and it’s possible he hasn’t given us his best season yet.

Why he’ll lose: Teammate and fellow Hart winner Leon Draisaitl also posts eye-popping offensive numbers and the two sometimes cannibalize each other in the vote.

2. Auston Matthews, Maple Leafs, +390

Why he’ll win: The defending Hart Trophy winner is the greatest current goal scorer on the planet, fresh off delivering the third 60-goal season this century.

Why he’ll lose: Matthews rarely makes it through a full season healthy, so he pretty much needs to win the Rocket Richard a third straight time to garner MVP consideration.

3. Leon Draisaitl, Oilers, +900

Why he’ll win: Because McDavid gets hurt? That’s pretty much the only scenario in which Draisaitl can win the Hart. That’s what happened in 2019-20.

Why he’ll lose: Voters will simply never consider Draisaitl the better, more valuable player than his own teammate McDavid if the two play roughly the same number of games.

4. Nathan MacKinnon, Avalanche, +1200

Why he’ll win: He’s as dominant as pretty much anyone when healthy and, if it’s a close vote, there could be a subconscious “It’s his turn” bias toward a three-time finalist still seeking his first win.

Why he’ll lose: He plays on the league’s most stacked roster, so it’s hard to parse out a “most valuable” player on a team with at least three legitimate Hart candidates. MacKinnon also tends to miss clusters of games because his fast-and-furious style gets him banged up.

5. Kirill Kaprizov, Wild, +1400

Why he’ll win: He’s a superstar who doesn’t have the elite supporting cast of the players above him. That means he’s far more likely to get (deserved) credit for his team’s success. Of the top 10 candidates, he’s my favorite pick when factoring in his odds.

Why he’ll lose: While he’s one of the league’s best bets for 100-plus points, he’s a long shot to lead the league in goals or points, and the correlation between winning either of those races and winning the Hart is strong.

6. Cale Makar, Avalanche, +1400

Why he’ll win: He’s the most uniquely gifted defenseman we’ve seen in a long time, already a Norris Trophy winner and two-time first-team all-star by 23. If any blueliner can end the Hart drought, it’s him.

Why he’ll lose: On top of the anti-defenseman bias in the vote, he has to contend with teammates MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen. They all hurt each other’s Hart chances.

7. Nikita Kucherov, Lightning, +2000

Why he’ll win: He’s certainly talented enough to win it. He did so in 2018-19 after posting a cap-era-high 128 points.

Why he’ll lose: The Bolts are all about championships these days and that means load management for their stars. When Kucherov gets hurt, they don’t rush him back.

8. Igor Shesterkin, Rangers, +2000

Why he’ll win: He made a big run at the award last season, finishing third in the Hart vote and winning the Vezina Trophy. If he repeats his performance, he’ll fit the definition of the Hart as someone who carries his team.

Why he’ll lose: Goalies still have to be otherworldy to steal the award. Think about how incredible Shesterkin was last season, and that wasn’t enough to win him the MVP.

9. Aleksander Barkov, Panthers, +3000

Why he’ll win: He combines two-way play with top-end offense better than anyone since Sergei Fedorov, who is the only player to win the Hart and Selke Trophies in the same season. Could Barkov be the second?

Why he’ll lose: Barkov has never come close to a scoring title and the team around him seems to have gotten worse on paper this summer, so team success isn’t a given.

10. Sidney Crosby, Penguins, +3500

Why he’ll win: If Crosby has an elite season, the narrative would be pretty irresistible to voters. He’d pass fellow 35-year-olds Eddie Shore and Herb Gardiner to become the oldest Hart winner ever.

Why he’ll lose: Crosby typically misses about 10 percent of the season for bodily maintenance nowadays and thus won’t sniff the top of the scoring leaderboard.

BEST LONG SHOT BETS

Johnny Gaudreau, Blue Jackets, +4000

Fresh off a 115-point season and finishing second in league scoring, Gaudreau has showcased the offensive ceiling needed to contend for the Hart. Now, joining a team on which he’ll be far and away the best player, he has the narrative on his side, too. If he can lift Columbus from out of the playoff picture to contender status…

Jack Hughes, Devils, +7000

Hughes’ 82-game pace last season: 94 points, as a 21-year-old. The breakout for the 2019 No. 1 overall pick is here. His range of outcomes includes surging into superstar status, topping 100 points and carrying the Devils to the playoffs. That would put him very much on the Hart radar. He’s probably my favorite overall bet on the board when factoring in the value.

Jason Robertson, Stars, +8000

Across his first two NHL seasons, he’s eighth in 5-on-5 points per 60. He hasn’t reached his ceiling yet, and he’s the best forward on a team with playoff aspirations. He has the right profile for a Hart candidate.

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